Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 240851
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA EWD INTO
NORTHERN ALBERTA...AND NORTHERN MANITOBA. A NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED SE FROM THE MANITOBA DISTURBANCE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WV IMAGERY OVERNIGHT HAS INDICATED A NICE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GAVE A BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND HAS INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WERE NOTED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. VISBYS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL
BE A MINOR ONE COMPARED TO THE WIDESPREAD FOG FROM 24 HRS AGO
THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS PRESENT ATTM. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 40 AT VALENTINE TO
55 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR
TODAY...THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO HIGHS TDY AS THE MAV NUMBERS ARE WARMER THAN THE MET
NUMBERS. DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET
GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD COVER TDY. THIS SEEMED TO
AGREE BETTER WITH FCST SOUNDING HIGHS WHICH RANGED FROM THE UPPER
70S IN THE NORTH...TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...RIDGING
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...FORCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S FOR NORTH PLATTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN...WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL MIXING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY...WHERE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WARMER LOWER 80S ARE FORECASTED...AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MIX WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

A WARM SIGNAL IS SEEN FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS 2 TO 4
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR. MODELS AGREE
THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH
WESTERLY WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. TYPICALLY THIS IS A WARM SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE AIR
ALOFT /3000 TO 7000 FEET AGL/ IS WARM AND EASILY MIXED TO THE
SURFACE.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DECENT FGEN BAND ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IS LIMITED...EXPECTING THAT AT LEAST
A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED 30 POPS...AS
THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO BE GIVEN THE DECENT LIFT BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE.

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THE REST OF THE
WEEKS WEATHER. NOW THE GFS IS THE WARMER MODEL AND THE ECMWF COLDER.
THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF THE WARMER SOLUTION.
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF IS A MUCH STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING BEHIND A POTENT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME COLD AIR TO
DIVE ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEEKS END. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15KTS OR LESS. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB




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