Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 311816
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
116 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

H5 analysis from earlier this evening has a ridge of
high pressure extending from the Rockies north into the prairie
provinces of Canada. Upstream of the ridge, an area of low pressure
was present west of the Alaska panhandle. A trough extended south of
this feature into the eastern Pacific-just off the coast of northern
California. East of the ridge, low pressure was present over
northern Ontario with a low amplitude trough extending south into
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure was located
over northern Manitoba. A cold front extended from southwestern
North Dakota into southern Iowa. South of the front, a nice plume of
subtropical moisture extended from west Texas and eastern New
Mexico, north northeast into Kansas and southern Nebraska. Fog had
developed overnight and was locally dense across eastern portions of
the forecast area. Visibilities were a quarter mile at O`neill and
Ord with a half a mile at Lexington. Based on ongoing conditions and
forecast BL RH this morning, will hoist a dense fog advisory for the
east through mid morning. Further west and south, a shield of mid
and high clouds continues to stream in from western Kansas. This
should keep visibilities above a mile in southwestern Nebraska and
will word the fog mention as patchy for now. under partly to mostly
cloudy skies, 3 AM CDT temperatures ranged from 61 at Broken Bow to
66 at Imperial.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Cameras and observations indicate visibility is rapidly
improving. The dense fog advisory has been allowed to expired at
10 am CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

In the short term, fog this morning followed by the threat for
storms this afternoon in the south then fog potential for tonight
are the main forecast concerns. As mentioned earlier, will be
hoisting a dense fog advisory for this morning through 10 AM CDT
for locations roughly east of a line from North Platte, to
Thedford, to O`Neill. Fog is expected to burn off by mid morning
with clouds persisting across southwestern Nebraska today. For
location south of the Interstate, weak mid level fronto genesis
will persist today. This weak mid level lift will be co- located
with plenty of moisture as PWATS of 1.5 inches are present over
southwestern Nebraska. Any activity which develops will be very
weakly sheared this afternoon, so no severe storms are
anticipated. However with very weak steering flow aloft, some
heavy rain is possible, particularly over far southwestern
portions of the forecast area. For tonight, high pressure will
drop south from Canada into Minnesota and northern Iowa. The
backed easterly and southeasterly winds will be favorable for fog
formation particularly in the west and far southwest overnight
tonight. With not much in the way of mid level cloudiness expected
tonight compared to what we have attm, fog potential looks better
tonight so have inserted a mention of fog in the west and
southwest for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed
Aug 31 2016

Upper level ridging will be in control through Friday across
western and north central Nebraska. Mainly dry conditions can be
expected, but will continue the mention of patchy fog Thursday
morning as clearing skies and light moist southeast low level
flow should allow for at least patchy fog to develop late
Wednesday night and linger into Thursday morning. Otherwise
comfortable temperatures as cool Canadian air modifies as it
recirculates back north on the western side of surface high
pressure located across the Great Lakes. Highs mostly in the 80 to
85 degree range both Thursday and Friday.

Rain chances will increase some this weekend as a large deep upper
level trough of low pressure becomes established across the
western United States. Southwest mid/upper level flow will become
established across our region on the eastern side of the upper
trough. Several disturbances embedded within the flow will bring
increasing chances of thunderstorms. It won`t be a rain out, but
scattered thunderstorms are expected for much of the Labor Day
weekend. At this time the best chances look to occur both Saturday
and Sunday nights. Otherwise a fairly warm and increasingly muggy
weekend, as upper 60 degree dew points return north into the area
by Sunday. Expecting highs generally in the lower to mid 80s
Saturday through Monday. Tuesday will cool into the upper 70s as
the upper trough dampens and progresses east into the central and
northern plains. A cold front will move south though the area as
this occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Early morning fog has lifted across the region giving way to broken
to scattered ceilings. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms are possible
across KLBF, however, confidence is low in development and timing
and therefore have been left out of the forecast for now. General
thinking is that showers and thunderstorms should develop south of
KLBF. The other main concern for KLBF is the development of fog once
again tonight. The thickest fog should be just west of the terminal,
however, fog could drop down to at least 1 SM in the early morning
across KLBF. Fog should stay well south of KVTN.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Kulik



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