Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230850
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
350 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The MCS carving through Cntl Neb appears to be producing an
uncertain forecast this afternoon and tonight. The RAP carries
this system slowly through Eastern Neb thwarting any rain chances
across Ncntl Neb...too much rain cooled outflow. The 06z NAM is
similar. The NAM suggests a window of opportunity this evening
around 02z-03z across the eastern edge of the forecast area...Holt
and Wheeler Counties...nothing more after that as it moves into
Ern Neb. The GFS is similar to the NAM so the forecast places a
30-40 pop across Holt and Wheeler Counties late this afternoon and
this evening.

Highs rise into the 80s to lower 90s using a blend of guidance plus
bias correction. Once the MCS moves into Cntl Neb this
morning...skies should become mostly clear. Lows tonight fall into
the 50s to near 60.

Severe weather prospects are limited by low shear...15-20kt winds at
500-300mb. The stronger winds aloft are across the Nrn plains and
south across KS. The NAM shows 4500 J/KG ML CAPE in Wheeler
County this afternoon...sfc dew points are around 70f. This
suggests the severe weather potential would be limited by outflow
dominant behavior leading to brief severe potential.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A cool Canadian airmass will be in place Wednesday through Friday,
with highs in the 70s. The flow around upper level high pressure
anchored across the southeast contiguous will draw mid and upper
level subtropical monsoonal moisture northward from deep in
Mexico. This moisture will combine with several weak disturbances
and generate showers/thunder, with the best chance Friday into
Friday night.

For the weekend into early next week, upper level ridging will
build northward across the central plains. This will bring
warming temperatures with highs back into the mid and upper 80s.
Our area will remain on the southern periphery of stronger
westerly winds aloft and weak embedded disturbances. Will include
at least a slight chance of thunder as moisture/higher dew points
spread north into the region and some upper level support for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Isolated thunderstorms will drift across far southwestern Nebraska
overnight and are expected to remain south and southeast of the
KLBF terminal. Broken CIGS of 20000 FT AGL are expected
overnight. In addition, low level wind shear will be possible
overnight with 40+ kt winds possible 1500 FT AGL. For Tuesday,
skies will be mainly clear with a wind shift expected from the
south to the north by mid afternoon. For the KVTN terminal, expect
dry conds overnight with scattered clouds around 20000 FT AGL. Low
level wind shear will be possible overnight with 40+ KT winds
around 1500 FT AGL. Winds will be gusty on Tuesday with gusts of
20 to 25 KTS during the afternoon hours. A wind shift is expected
by early afternoon from south to north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

15 to 20 percent humidity is expected along and west of highway
61. Forecast wind gusts in the HRRR...RAP and NAM models are less
than 22kt during the peak heating period this afternoon. Conditions
are not expected to reach the critical threshold for a Red Flag
warning.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...CDC


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