Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 012048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER HUNDSON BAY. MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SCT/NMRS SHOWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL. OVER
THE PAST HOUR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMP WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED
HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST HAS PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT...AS THE TEMPERATURES WERE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS/SHOWERS MORE THAN EXPECTED. THUS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS FOR THE EVENING AS SFC BASED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED. STILL
EXPECTING SOME SCT ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...AND EXITING OVERNIGHT TO THE EAST. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG STORMS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. STORMS WILL ALSO BE FEED EARLY TONIGHT BY
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THE JET ROTATES EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20S
C WITH SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND 30 C. MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 90S
WITH THE GFS MOS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS. THIS IS
MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HAVE DECIDED TO BLEND AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 90S.
WITH THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A STRONG ENOUGH CAP TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ATOP THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHS
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING FOR WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES BRING PERIODS
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK ON A
STALLED H850 FRONTOGENETIC BAND FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHEAST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE NEXT WAVE IS SLATED FOR ARRIVAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL 30-40%
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IN BOTH CASES THE MODELS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY
30KTS OR LESS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF STORMS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE A WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME ON
THURSDAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE LATER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERE CHANCES INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK AS
BULK SHEAR AND CAPE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN. AT
THIS TIME MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
KLBF...HOWEVER A STRAY STORM IS POSSIBLE AND WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK


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