Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 281157 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
657 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. IN ITS WAKE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD AIR WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM
GORDON TO ONEILL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 0C NORTH TO AROUND 7C SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE LOW TODAY
WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF A LINE FROM
CODY TO BROKEN BOW WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR REGION TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH H850MB TEMPS WARMING ABOUT 6C
TO 8C OVER THOSE OF TUESDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AID IN THE WARM UP FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND
65 TO 70 DEGREE HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS. EAST OF HIGHWAY
83...WINDS WILL STAY MORE SOUTHERLY...AND THEREFORE NOT SEEING THE
WARMING DOWNSLOPE BOOST TO TEMPERATURES. STILL...HIGHS WILL BE
MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.

AS MENTIONED...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STEADY OR EVEN WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO...AS A POOL OF WARMER AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 10C TO
13C/ MOVES EAST OFF THE ROCKIES ALONG AND RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FULL EXTENT OF THIS AIR WILL NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE...BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OR
RISE SLIGHTLY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IN DAYS PAST. IN ADDITION...AS A WEST
COAST DEEPENS DURING THE WEEKEND...A LEEWARD SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS THE LEEWARD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH EAST. THIS WOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR
TO SPREAD EAST OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER






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