Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 261104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
604 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

At 07z...A weak cold front extended from near Omaha Nebraska through
Great Bend and Liberal Kansas. Skies were mostly clear across
western Nebraska. Temperatures ranged mainly in the 40s, with
Alliance the coldest at 37 and Broken Bow the mildest at 55


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Today...A upper ridge axis will extend from the Four Corner region
northward across the Central and Northern Rockies. this upper ridge
is anomalously strong with 500mb height near 14 decameters above
normal in eastern Wyoming. Temperatures at 850 mb to range from 13c
art O`Neill to 17c at Imperial. With mainly clear skies and light
northwest winds, highs from 72-77 across the southwest half of the
forecast area to near 65 at O`Neill. With drier air working into
western Nebraska, minimum relative humidities will fall to around 25
percent this afternoon west of Valentine through Broken Bow. With
light winds, the fire weather concern will not be elevated.

Tonight...Skies to remain mostly clear with a weak surface trough of
low pressure developing across the northern into the central High
Plains. Lows tonight mainly in the low 40s, except near 45 parts of
the northeast, and mid to upper 30s parts of the eastern panhandle
and Platte River valley.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

An upper level ridge over the western US will keep the central
Plains dry through Saturday. As the ridge slides eastward throughout
the week, warmer air will filter into the region. 850 mb
temperatures rise up to 15 C on Thursday with and rise to near 20 C
on Friday. This will result in surface high temperatures reaching
into the upper 70s to low 80s both days. Minimum temperatures for
Thursday night and Friday will remain in the mid to upper 40s.

The next opportunity for precipitation arrives on Saturday as a weak
shortwave trough moves across the upper Plains. At this time, models
are keeping the majority of the precipitation north of the
Nebraska/South Dakota border. Left a dry forecast for the entire
forecast area on Saturday as confidence was not high enough to add
precipitation to the extreme northern portion of the forecast area.
Any intensifying of this trough over the next couple days will
increase the chances of northern Cherry and Keya Paha counties
seeing some light rain. With the trough and resulting surface cold
front moving across Nebraska on Saturday, high temperatures will be
noticeably cooler than Thursday and Friday, however, still well
above average. Highs will still reach into the mid to upper 60s
(normal highs in the upper 50s to low 60s). Low temperatures will
also see a drop from previous nights. Lows drop into the low 40s on
Saturday night.

The upper level ridge builds back across the region on Sunday, with
dry conditions returning. High temperatures on Sunday rebound into
the low to mid 70s. Another trough moves into the region on Monday,
bringing another shot at precipitation across portions of our
forecast area. Again, current model runs are keeping precipitation
to the west and north of our area. There is a potential, though, for
portions of the eastern panhandle to see some showers. Again,
confidence in the timing and location of shower activity is low and
therefore, only put a slight chance of showers across the northeast
corner of Sheridan county at this time. Timing of the cold front
passage on Monday will determine how much our temperatures rise on
Monday. Will keep slightly warmer temperatures in the forecast
(upper 60s to low 70s) as models indicate a late afternoon/early
evening passage over our forecast area for now. Cooler air filters
back into the region on Tuesday with highs dropping into the low to
mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

No aviation concern the next 24 hours at the KLBF and KVTN
terminals, with mainly clear skies and light winds below 10 kts.


Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Highs flows to continue along the North Platte River
downstream of Lake McConaughy. Releases increased 100 cfs Monday
morning for a total flow near 1800 cfs. The current stage at North
Platte was 5.97 feet. The slight increase in flows will cause the
river stage to remain near 6.0 feet for the foreseeable future.
Therefore, a flood Advisory was issued Tuesday evening for the North
Platte River near North Platte from Highway 83 to approximately 4
miles west of Highway 83 south of North River Road.




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