Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 190900
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SERN WY INTO NERN CO. ANOTHER
OVERNIGHT OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. THE COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE ONLY AREAS WITH VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS WERE AT LBF AND
MCK AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES WERE MILD WITH LOW TO MID 60S COMMON
ACROSS NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS
FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...OGA AND IML
TO REACH THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM
85 TO 90. THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY
SOME BRIEF TOWERING CUMULUS POSSIBLE.

BY EARLY EVENING...THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WEAK COOLING ALOFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK LIFT INDICATED INVOF THE FRONT TO BREAK A
WEAKENING CAP AS FRONT/AND INCREASING LLJ CONTINUES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS WITH 0-3KM CAPES RANGE TO 500-750 J/KG.
CHANCES FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IS LOW AND PROBABLY
CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING ONEILL AND BARTLETT. WHILE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING...LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES MID EVENING...MOVES TO THE SERN ZONES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING STORM CHANCES TO END. DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT SUPPORT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S FAR EAST AND SERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS FROM THE MONTANA TO EASTERN NEB. THE COOL HIGH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWN FOR SUNDAY...AND EXPECT SHOWERS FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS.

BY MONDAY EYE WILL BE FOCUSED ON A CLOSED LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MAKE A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PWATS INCREASE LATE MONDAY TO 2SD ABOVE SEPTEMBER
NORMS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING BETTER...AND CONTINUE TO TREND POPS
UP WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS MID WEEK...RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP TO BRING A BRIEF WARM UP AS IT THEN DRIFTS EAST TO END THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS OF FOG/MIST ARE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INCLUDING THE AREAS BOUNDED BY BBW-OGA-MCK-LXN-BBW. WITH LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND...THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT FOG/MIST WILL
NOT CONTINUE FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHICH
INCLUDES THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST OF LBF...THROUGH LBF TO OGA AND
EXTENDS TO IML. AS A RESULT...WE WILL INCLUDE 1SM BRFG IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF AFTER 10Z. FOG/MIST IS LIKELY TO LIFT
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
OVER MOST AREAS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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