Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 252029
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA WITH RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE INBETWEEN.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH WILL PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT. A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HELP THE
SYSTEM TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE LOW THROUGH
KANSAS. TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA. LOWER LEVELS /1500
TO 5000 FT AGL/ WILL SATURATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING. ABOVE THIS LAYER...WARM MOIST ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY...AND EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 200 AM CST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ADEQUATE ELEVATED CAPE WILL EXIST FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL.

TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND MIGRATE TO
NORTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHARPEN
WITH A DRY LINE BULGE OVER TAKING THE WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. DURING THE MORNING EXPECT
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO CONTINUE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR I-80 AND THEN
MOVING NORTH FROM THERE. AGAIN EXPECT THAT SOME OF THESE ELEVATED
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE ATTENTION TURNS TO
FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE. EXPECT A NARROW
RIBBON OF 2000+ J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS FRONTIER...HAYES AND CHASE COUNTIES. BACKED SURFACE
FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY TO OVER 200 M/S^2. EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE 21Z TO 23Z TIMEFRAME. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A SMALL REGION ALONG AND ABOUT 30 MILES
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE THREAT QUICKLY DECREASING TO THE
NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO BE RATHER COOL AND STABLE
DUE TO PERSISTENT STRATUS. JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO LARGE HAIL A THREAT FOR AREAS TO THE
NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CHEYENNE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOW 50S WITH STRONG ASCENT INSTABILITY AND MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 JOULES /KG2 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY2. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE NORTH OVER NIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY HAVE LEFT SNOW OR RAIN SNOW MIX OUT OF FORECAST OVER
NORTHWEST ZONES...SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY FOR NOW WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING MUCAPES THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN
WITH THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SYSTEM MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND OVER NORTHERN ZONES HAVE GONE DEFINITE
TO THE NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BUT STILL A
SLIGHT DIURNAL TREND WITH 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S EAST AND
SOUTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME SNOW OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THURSDAY A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...POPS INCREASING FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING AND SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EXITING SUNDAY. HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS COULD GO BELOW 1000 FT AGL
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE KLBF TAF SITE...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z MONDAY...AND
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC



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