Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 281114 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS BUILDING SOUTH. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A SLIGHT
COOLING AT 750 MB ACROSS NRN NEB AND WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 750 MB
AND HIGHS WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN PUSHING LOWS INTO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST DOES RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND WILL BRING US PERIODIC CHANCE FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK
AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS TIMED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. CONCERN WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH KEEPING GULF
MOISTURE AT BAY. THUS MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY PACIFIC IN
NATURE...NOTED BY 315K/320K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...STILL
MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES. THIS DOES BRINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND OR
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT.

BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS /5 TO 10 DEGREES/
WHICH CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO SEE ON AND
OFF CHANCES FOR STORMS AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND
TRACK OF THE STRONGEST PORTION WILL BE RESULT IN POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WHICH WOULD PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY PASS WEST AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. VFR
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






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