Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 082137
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Winds will decouple this evening, with speeds overnight in the 5 to
15 mph range. Airmass is quite dry with dew points in the upper
teens. Expect lows to drop to near 20 degrees tonight in the typical
cold spots like river valleys, with mid to upper 20s elsewhere.

Very dry air aloft will bring nearly full sunshine to the region
Saturday. Winds aloft at 850mb will become more northwest as opposed
to due north, and this will allow for Pacific air to filter in from
the west. Highs should reach well into the 50s across western
Nebraska, with 40s elsewhere. Brisk northwest winds will develop
again, with gusts to near 25 mph at times.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

The high amplitude upper level pattern continues through Thursday
and then flattens out. Both the ECM and GFS show no sign of a
significant arctic air intrusion by any of the high pressure systems
dropping south. This is based on the 500m AGL temperature and sfc
pressure fields in both models which should capture any shallow
intrusions. Thus the guidance for both models is advertising above
normal highs in the 40s and 50s. The forecast is dry but there is
always a chance that one of the two cold fronts dropping through
this week would pool moisture sufficient for scattered rain or snow
showers across ncntl Neb.

The models continue to signal a windy day Monday with h850mb winds
around 50kt, h700mb winds 50-75kt and 500m AGL winds around 30kts
which equates to sfc winds near 30 mph. Consensus guidance was the
basis for wind speeds around 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. This wind
event is the result of a cold front. A second potential wind event
could develop Thursday with the second cold front. The GFS indicates
40-60kt winds at the h850-700mb layer while the ECM is much weaker.
Otherwise no significant weather features are obvious during the
next 7 days.

The temperature forecast uses the model blend plus the previous
forecast plus bias corrected guidance for highs in the 40s and 50s
with a few readings near 60 Sunday. Bias correction raised highs the
most Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and this could be the result of
the model blend trending toward climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Locally windy conditions are expected across southwest Nebraska
this afternoon, otherwise VFR expected as MVFR ceilings around
KONL gradually dissapate and move southeast away from the region
this afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Conditions for range fire development Sunday will be elevated...

15 percent or less relative humidity develops across Swrn Neb Sunday
aftn but the models show wind speeds decreasing in the afternoon
during peak heating. The temperature forecast is for highs near 60
with nearly full sun. The 10m AGL forecast winds are northwest at 15
to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph. This would equate to eye-level wind
speeds of about 12 to 18 mph; roughly.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...CDC



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