Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 282307
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFFECTING VTN AND ANW FROM 00Z TO 02Z AND ONL AFTER 04Z. THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR ANY REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL AFFECT ANY ONE LOCATION. AFTER 04Z...THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE AREA AROUND ONL AND
BUB.

ONE SHORT RANGE RAPID UPDATE FORECAST SHOWS SOME PATCHY LO STRATUS
EAST OF IEN-OGA AFTER 12Z...BUT OTHER FORECAST OUTPUT DOES NOT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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