Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 132132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
332 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Will keep the dry forecast going for north central Nebraska as
a ridge continues to build across the western Plains. High to mid-
level clouds will stick around much of the night keeping our
temperatures on the mild side of guidance. Low to mid teens will be
the overnight low for most locations. Will see slightly cooler
temperatures across the Pine Ridge region where temperatures could
drop into the single digits.

For Saturday, dry weather continues across the forecast area. While
clouds will try to thin out across northern Nebraska during the day,
high clouds will result mostly cloudy skies south of an Alliance to
O`Neill line allowing at least some filtered sunshine to reach the
ground. High temperatures reach into the mid to upper 30s across the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

A closed upper low will cross just south of Arizona Saturday night
as an upper ridge extends from the southeastern U.S. into the
southern and central Plains. The system will take on a negative
tilt Sunday as it moves into southeastern New Mexico. This will
draw Gulf moisture northward into Nebraska by Sunday. Chances for
light rain or freezing rain will increase Sunday. If surface
temperatures remain in the lower 30s most areas, and further
cooling occurs late afternoon, light freezing rain cloud become a
travel concern. Therefore the Winter Storm Warning will now begin
at 12 pm cst Sunday and continue through Monday afternoon.

The closed low associated with the system will move into the north
Texas panhandle Sunday night, and into north central or
southeastern Kansas Monday. The threat for light freezing rain or
sleet Sunday evening across southeastern areas will transition to
mainly snow late sunday night and colder air aloft is drawn into
the system. Likely to categorical snow chances Sunday night into
Monday morning across the southeast. The European medium range
model has made an adjustment a bit further northwest the past two
runs and is very consistent while the GFS and NAM models are
faster and further southeast. It appears a well defined
deformation zone will develop from eastern Colorado into northwest
Kansas and southwest Nebraska and extend northeast through
northeast Nebraska. Model differences do exist. The GFS and NAM
continue to show a strong northern stream influence north and
ahead of the advancing upper low. This may act to cause a sharp
gradient to the snowfall and more importantly a further southeast
position than the European and Canadian models indicate. Continue
to prefer the consistent European model with upper ridging holding
ahead of the upper low and and only a weak northern stream
influence until the system weakens and moves east Monday evening.

A look at model soundings favors light rain or freezing rain
Sunday, then a transition from freezing rain to sleet and snow as
Sunday night progresses. Snow is expected Monday. Given an
anomalously high precipitable water value near six tenths of an
inch at North Platte Sunday evening, heavy snow is possible going
into Monday. Snow ratios should be low however near 10 to 1.
Accumulating snow in excess of 6 inches remain possible but less
likely southeast of a line from Ogallala through Ainsworth, with
a sharp cutoff in amounts northwest of this line. Northerly winds
should increase Monday to 10 to 20 mph, which could cause some
minor blowing snow issues.

Snow chances should come to an end Monday night as system fills
and lifts into the western Great Lakes. The upper flows is
forecast to become fairly zonal by Wednesday, then southwesterly
Thursday with temperatures potentially warming into the 40s to low
50s by Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Fairly quiet aviation conditions over the next day for both KVTN and
KLBF. The only major weather concern will be the increasing clouds
and lowering of ceilings overnight. Ceilings remain overcast
Saturday morning at KVTN with ceilings scattering out at KLBF.


Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Frazzle ice continues to impact area streams and rivers.  The North
Platte River above Lake Mcconaughy has seen fluctuations due to
minor ice jamming the past several days, most notably at Lewellen
and Lisco.  Warmer temperatures helped alleviate some of the ice
issues early this week, but colder temperatures have returned.  Will
continue a RVS for Lewellen until the ice issues are fully
resolved and upgrade if needed.


Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for NEZ007>010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.



LONG TERM...Roberg
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