Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 300858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER



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