Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 202045
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL
APPLIFY NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND PRODUCE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER AIR...NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND STRATUS POSSIBLY
TONIGHT. LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOSED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO TOMORROW. AIR IS FAIRLY
WARM ALOFT...AS NOTED ON 12Z MORNING KLBF SOUNDING...HOWEVER THINK
THE GREEN VEGETATION FROM A VERY WET JUNE IS HELPING TO KEEP FROM
FULLY MIXING. THIS MORNING SOUNDING SUGGESTED MAX TEMP OF
103...HOWEVER CURRENTLY THE TEMP IS ONLY 92 DEGREES. WARMEST IS 102
OVER KIML...HOWEVER THE DRY LINE IS PASSED THEM AS THEIR DEW PT IS
IN THE 40S. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX IS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...WILL
CONTINUE TO LET THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUE AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS NEARING 100
DEGREES.

CLOUDS TONIGHT ARE A BIG UNCERTAINTY. THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...MOST OF THE CWA HAS SEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS. MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED MIGHTILY ON THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND FORECAST IS
BASED MORE ON PERSISTENCE. THE DRY LINE WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST AND BASED THE HIGHER CLOUDS WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW PTS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS MILD
TONIGHT.

TOMORROW MORNING ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS WILL BURN OFF WITH A
CONTINUED SHORT TERM HEAT WAVE. FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 100...WHICH IS
BELOW GUIDANCE...SINCE THE LAST FEW DAYS MODELS HAVE OVERDONE HIGHS.
DEW PTS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. SINCE THERE IS A HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER ONE FOR
TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH CAP
EXPECTED TO HOLD. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...HOWEVER WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
UNFOLDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MIGRATE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENT AND
SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850MB TEMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S C FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ASHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS
WRN NEB DURING THE AFTN MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. THE
MAIN PROBLEM WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT RELATES TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND
WARM STABLE AIR AT 700-500 MB WHICH EFFECTIVELY CAPS STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FCST AREA FRIDAY. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT VERSUS THE DAYTIME
AND THE FCST AREA AVOIDS A SHORT LIVED HEAT WAVE. COOL AIR
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SEND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS C
BY SUNDAY.

RAIN CHANCES ARE ISOLATED AT BEST AND JUST ACROSS NRN NEB. THE ECM
AND GFS ARE DRY ELSEWHERE. THERE IS TOO MUCH WARM AIR ALOFT AND TOO
LITTLE MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE AREA OF STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...LEAVING KVTN AND
KLBF TERMINALS WITH SKC. WIND SHOULD STAY BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWEST.
THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT DEVELOPED STRATUS THE PREVIOUS TWO
MORNINGS WILL STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-
038.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK






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