Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 271738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Models in fair agreement in the near term this morning. Cool front
to the south over Kansas this morning with surface high pressure in
place over western Nebraska. Some MVFR cigs over southwest Nebraska
and couple of degree dew point spreads have added some patchy fog
this morning. Further to the southwest the ring of fire continues
anchored over New Mexico Texas Panhandle vicinity. Ridge of high
pressure at 500mb entrenched over the western CONUS. Very juicy air
trapped over western Nebraska with PW`s at KLBF last evening`s
flight at 1.56 or 162% of normal. Stationary boundary turns north
along the front range in Co and Wy. This will be the focus for
thunderstorms this afternoon as a stronger wave moves around the
ridge. Full sun over most of western Nebraska and a return flow on
the back side of the surface high will see temperatures about a
category over yesterdays highs. Have left precipitation out of the
forecast today and only included it after 6z tonight over the
northwest. Southerly flow tonight over western Nebraska will hold
temperatures up in the low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Upper level ridge axis will remain over High Plains Friday into
Saturday but then is shown to build westward for the latter half of
the weekend and early next week.  At the surface high pressure near
the Great Lakes will allow for southeasterly low level flow and the
subsequent influx of decent moisture Friday evening through
Saturday. PWATS during this time period are shown to eclipse an
1.5 inches as far west as the eastern panhandle. There is some
agreement in the medium range models of weak shortwave energy to
initiate convection off the front range and/or high plains. Friday
afternoon, stability profiles show decent CAPE across our far
western zones, but as one would expect, much less the further
east. Storms would be expected to be strong or severe out west.
QPF fields show decent rainfall potential in the storms, with the
possibility of locally heavy rainfall. The shortwave energy
remains into Saturday with the models indicating spotty bullseye
of qpf across the CWA through the day. A somewhat "stronger" wave
is shown to pass through the weak northwest flow Saturday evening,
providing for additional storm chances. The better instability is
progged to be across our west, strong storms would be possible
with localized heavy rainfall lasting into Sunday. Temperatures
through the weekend will be moderated by the clouds and easterly
low level flow. Highs will be near or slightly below average.

Next week the ridge remains centered near the Great Basin, leaving
northwest flow for the central Plains.  Shortwave energy is seen
with the potential for periodic disturbances passing through the
mean flow.  The models respond by placing periodic pop chances, but
those chances are lower confidence.  Highs next week are progged to
be seasonal or slightly below average owing to the potential
unsettled conditions and the fact that the cwa will be east of the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Latest satellite imagery and surface plot shows a mix of low, mid,
and high clouds across western NEB. Ceilings range between MVFR
in portions of southwest NEB to low-end VFR (less than 7 kft) and
mid-level/high-level clouds (greater than or equal to 10 kft)
elsewhere. Local radar display shows scattered showers currently
across portions of northwest NEB and the far western Sandhills.
Current thinking is the threat for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will persist across northwest NEB, eastern
Nebraska Panhandle, and the western Sandhills this afternoon and
through much of tonight. Otherwise, light breezes will prevail
today, mainly out of the southwest. Sub-VFR ceilings currently
present are expected to lift and become VFR over the course of the




LONG TERM...Jacobs
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