Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLBF 200959
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A LEESIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE AT
ONL. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 14 AT VTN TO 25
AT ONL AND 27 AT IML.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z FOR THE EASTERN FOUR
COUNTIES WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
H85 TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM 3C TO 5C SUPPORT HIGHS OF 40 TO 45 MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV
GUIDANCE. THE PRESENCE OF EXISTING SNOW COVER AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TODAY TO LIMIT HIGHS FROM WHATS FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
LIMITED. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STRATUS JUST TO OUR EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH AND LOWS 18 TO 23 ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DECENT WARM UP EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD
OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT OVER SPREADING THE AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST...AS SOUNDING DATA
INDICATES IT WILL JUST BE TOO WARM ALOFT FOR SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WRAPS UP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...COLDER AIR BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS WRAPPED SOUTH INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT...AND BRING A FAIRLY DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS /THROUGH OUR AREA/ CHRISTMAS INTO
FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THINKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO UP POPS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND CURRENTLY BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
ONE THING TO NOTE...THERE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY STORM...THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM. SO SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT MODELS INSIST THAT A RAPID RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH THAT MOISTURE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AND THEN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WHICH
SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA. WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIFR IS EXPECTED CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
VFR/LOCAL MVFR IN FOG IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.
VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM 15Z ONWARD. MVFR/IFR MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN NEAR AND EAST OF KONL...PERHAPS INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING TO SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR AND STRATUS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-028-
029.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.