Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 261720
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY AS OF 2 AM CDT HAD THE WESTERN TROUGH NOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WASHINGTON STATE...SWD INTO FAR NWRN PORTIONS
OF NEVADA. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT HAS ABUNDANT CLOUDS TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH OVER IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN MONTANA.
FURTHER EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS NOTED OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
INTO NERN COLORADO...THEN NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS KANSAS...EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
WYOMING. NORTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT...EASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT
OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS. SKIES REMAINED CLEAR INTO THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 43 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 51
AT ONEILL AS OF 3 AM CDT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL FLATTEN
AND RETREAT INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS THIS
HAPPENS...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROFS FORM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND EASTERN U.S. LEAVING THE CNTL PLAINS IN A DRY SEASONABLE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. EASTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH...THEN WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. BY PEAK HEATING...21Z
THIS AFTERNOON...ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. FURTHER WEST...WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL USHER IN DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR. THIS DRIER AIR...COUPLED WITH FULL SUN...GOOD MIXING
AND H85 TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20C WILL PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS INT
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...EMERGING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING BY 12Z MONDAY. THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WAA WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. VERY ROBUST MID LEVEL LIFT IS DEPICTED IN THE
GFS AND NAM SOLNS WITH THE GREATEST LIFT NOTED FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT...DECIDED TO RAMP UP POPS IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ALONG A LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO VALENTINE.
QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER AS MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INDICATE
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH VERY LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED...PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
PICKED UP ON SOME MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OUT
OF COLORADO THROUGH NCNTL NEB. THE GEMREG AND ECM ARE SIMILAR...THE
ECM IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. THUS RAIN CHANCES APPEAR OF A BIT
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM WOULD CONTINUE THIS
RAIN CHANCE INTO THE AFTN WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WASH OUT THIS
FEATURE. A SLIGHT POP INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
WARRANTED MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL A 30 PERCENT CHANCE. QPF AMOUNTS
OF 1/10 OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS MONDAY RISE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AS SKIES CLEAR SOMEWHAT IN
THE AFTN. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
20S ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RIDGE EAST
THROUGH WRN NEB WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY. H850MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS
C FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

LOW PRESSURE SHOULD EMERGE ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS OFTEN PRODUCES THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS CUSTER
COUNTY AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB BUT THE EAST STAYS
CALM. THE MEX SUGGESTED UPPER 20S FOR LOWS AT BROKEN BOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE ECM...GFS AND GEM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BRIEF WARM UP WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70. A PACIFIC FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING HIGHS
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE ECM IS VERY
FAST SENDING AN ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE DIRECTED THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE HIGH SETS UP ABOUT A 35 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUGGESTING SATURDAY WILL
BE A WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED -SHRA IN THE KVTN TAF AFTER 07Z. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE CIGS AND VISBYS BELOW VFR THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB/CDC
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MARTIN






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