Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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934
FXUS63 KLBF 262049
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WY WILL TRACK
NORTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE
/CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO/ WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CARVED
BY THE UPPER LOW...AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN KS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAVE COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /FGEN/ WILL
INTENSIFY FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA STARTING
MID EVENING TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST NOON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE EVENING AS
LIFT/MID LEVEL FORCING INCREASES FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE FGEN
BEGINS TO DECREASE AND SO DO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

AS FAR AS TSTMS...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AS SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED THOUGH...AS THE
WARMER MOIST AIR HAS REMAINED WELL SOUTH IN KANSAS. STILL IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A SEVERE STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL COULD DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURE WISE IT WILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY...HAS H850MB TEMPS
HOVER NEAR 0C. SOME SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT THOUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO
NOT SUPPORT ALL SNOW AND ACCUMULATION.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MODELS HAVE FOCUSED ON MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS IN THE MID AND
LONG TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH WITH THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE AN INCH
ACCUMULATION GOING BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS
WITH COLDER AIR AND QUICKER TURN OVER. HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. PRECIPITATION ENDING NORTH
AND THEN THROUGH THE NIGHT CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AS NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 850MB TEMPERATURES
HOVERING 0C OR JUST ABOVE AND THROUGH TUESDAY AND HAVE CHANCES OF
MIX OVER NORTHWEST AND SOME PERIODS OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE SYSTEM. MAINLY RAIN EVENT BUT ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR



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