Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 180840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

H5 analysis from earlier tonight had an elongated area
of high pressure extending from Baja California east northeast into
the southeastern CONUS. North of this high pressure, a broad area of
low amplitude flow extended from California east into the central
plains, then northeast into the Great Lakes. Within the zonal flow
from California to the central and northern plains, several embedded
disturbances were noted. One was located over the Dakotas, a second
over northern Montana and a third was anchored off the coast of
Washington and Oregon. At the surface, a cold front extended from
the Texas panhandle northeast into far northwestern Missouri and
central Iowa. Dew points ahead of this feature were well into the
mid 60s, while north of the front, much drier air existed. Across
western and north central Nebraska, dew points were in the upper 30s
to middle 40s. With mainly clear skies in place and northwest winds
of 10 to 15 MPH, temperatures as of 3 AM CDT were in the mid and
high 40s across western and north central Nebraska. Some lower 50s
were present across far southwestern Nebraska.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Today and Tonight...In the short term, temperatures
today and precipitation chances tonight are the main forecast
concerns. For today: Much drier boundary layer air will be present
across the region today as the before mentioned cold front continues
to push south into the mid Mississippi valley. Guidance was in good
agreement today on temperatures and with mostly sunny skies
expected, highs should reach the middle to upper 60s. This is 10 to
15 degrees cooler than Monday`s highs, however, they are still 5 to
10 degrees above normal for this time of year. An upper level
disturbance will lift east into the Rockies tonight. Mid level
frontogenesis will increase overnight across the northeastern
Nebraska panhandle into the central and northern sandhills. Cross
sections taken perpendicular to the flow have a nice area of
slantwise lift peaking in the 09z to 12z time frame tonight. That
being said, and with good model agreement on where the strongest
lift is located, opted to increase pops along a swath extending from
the east central panhandle into portions of north central Nebraska.
Did go ahead and increase qpf`s slightly in this band given the
strong mid level lift present and good QPF model agreement. As for p-
type tonight, H85 temps are in the 5-7C range, so all rain for now.
Was initially worried some about a wet flake or two of snow where
the highest intensity of pcpn is expected. However, above freezing
temps are present from the sfc to 2-3000 FT aloft so will go with
all rain in this forecast

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The upper level trough continues across the Plains on Wednesday,
allowing cooler air and rain showers to persist much of the day.
With 850 mb temperatures in the 5-10 C range, resulting surface
temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 50s. While rain showers
will persist much of the day, most locations will see a tenth of new
rainfall totals. Areas across the central sandhills could see
slightly heavier precipitation with new rainfall totals around a
quarter of an inch. Rain slowly tapers off and moves eastward by
midnight Thursday.

Strong upper level ridge builds across the western US on Thursday
allowing strong surface high pressure to begin to build across the
central Plains. While dry conditions will persist on Thursday,
cooler air will continue to move into the region keeping high
temperatures on the lower side. Expect highs in the upper 50s to low

Dry and quiet conditions will continue for the remainder of the week
and into the weekend as the upper level ridge continues to amplify
over the western US. Temperatures increase into the low to mid 70s
from Friday through the weekend. Locations along and north of US-20
will see temperatures only in the upper 60s through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR is expected all areas overnight through 06z Tuesday evening.

High pressure across Wyoming will build east through Nebraska
tonight and Tuesday.

A weak upper level disturbance...currently across the Pacific
Northwest...will begin affecting Wrn Neb Tuesday evening...03z-
06z...with rain and cigs OVC035-050. The SREF suggests MVFR cigs
will remain west of the forecast area...across WY through 06z
Tuesday evening. Thus...this rain would likely develop from west
to east across the Wrn Sandhills...north of I-80...late Tuesday




SHORT TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.