Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 151837
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
137 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Updated the forecast to lower max temps this afternoon in the
north and increase cloud cover as well. Low clouds hanging on
longer than expected will have an effect on temps.

Some potential for thunderstorm development along a line from near
Bassett to Arnold this afternoon as mesoanalysis indicates
increasing convergence along a mainly stationary boundary. This
boundary is likely enhanced by a differential heating boundary
with low clouds persistent behind it. However some negative
energy needs to be overcome yet according to the lastest HRRR
soundings in that area. Will be watching this area for the next
couple of hours for development.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Storms moving north at a good clip and should be into South Dakota
by 12z with some lingering showers over the north. As the upper
trough as seen in wv approaches from the west showers and
thunderstorms will move back across northern Nebraska. The surface
low will shift north and deepen some as the upper support approaches
with front lying across southern Nebraska lifting north through the
day. This warm frontal boundary will be the focus for thunderstorm
development through the afternoon into the early evening. Strong
differential heating with steep lapse rates will develop over north
central Nebraska this afternoon. Marginal risk over north central
zones seems reasonable. With cooler air filtering in from the
northwest a transition to showers over the west with thunderstorms
to the east. Highs today in the 70s northwest and upper 80s south
and east. Thunderstorms continuing along the front over north
central tonight with showers further west. Lows tonight in the low
40s northwest to the mid 50s south and east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday morning before
high pressure builds into the region. The main story for the weekend
will be the cooler temperatures moving into the region. Highs
Saturday will range from the low 60s across the Pine Ridge region
into the low 70s south of I-80. Low temperatures overnight will then
drop into the mid 30s across the Pine Ridge area and into the upper
40s across the south. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly warmer
than Saturday, however, still below normal. Expect highs on Sunday
to be in the low 70s across the forecast area.

Dry weather will continue through Sunday before the next shot of
rain arrives on Sunday night and Monday morning. A quick moving
shortwave will bring a very low chance of some precipitation to
southern Nebraska. Will keep precipitation chances around 40 percent
on Sunday night. Currently not expecting any severe weather with
this system, but will continue to monitor over the next couple
days.

The main stories for next week will be the return of dry weather and
warmer conditions. Current model runs are keeping any precipitation
chances for next week north and east of north central Nebraska. Warm
air advection from the south will also result in warmer temperatures
to return to the area. Expect highs in the 80s from Monday through
Wednesday. Temperatures begin to drop off on Thursday where highs
will rise into the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Visibility and low stratus causing IFR to LIFR conditions across
north central NE this morning, lasting a little longer than
originally forecast. Believe this will hold on for a few hours
longer but will eventually give way to sct cumulus later this
afternoon. VFR across southern half of NE.

Upper low will eventually pull northeast through the overnight as
next PV anomally rotates through the base of the main trough.
Result should be an area of mid level forcing in a fairly unstable
atmosphere to generate TSRA in the Panhandle and moving into north
central NE overnight. Have decent confidence in this so have
included TSRA mention at KVTN to account for this. Another area
of concern for TSRA development will be along eastward advancing
front stretching from northeast into central NE where it will join
a dryline that develops through this afternoon. A LLJ will
develop in this area overnight and this is where best instability
will reside. However at this time feel it will be east of KLBF TAF
site and therefore not included.

Once cold front dives southward overnight, stratus should
redevelop along and behind the front bringing sites to MVFR to IFR
conditions once again by later in the forecast period.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Stoppkotte
SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Stoppkotte



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