000
FXUS63 KLBF 270446
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SANDHILLS
REGION THIS EVENING...PROVIDING FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.  LOWS FOR SUNDAY ARE A PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH A BLEND OF BC MET/MAV/CONSALL DATA.  THE ABOVE BLEND YIELDS
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS CONTINUING.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP
AMPLIFY THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE DIRECT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ATOP THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...BUT WITH NO NOTICEABLE DISTURBANCES OR FOCUS FOR STORMS
WITHIN THE CWA...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST BEYOND 00Z THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. BY
LATE MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT
MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SOUTH AND WEST OF A VALENTINE-
LEXINGTON LINE. WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT OR ABOVE
1000J/KG...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KT...ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR TUESDAY...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY NARROW...FROM 21-03Z...AND
CONFINED TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND THE
SOUTHWEST.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY THEN...WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY...THEY WILL NOT BE REAL STRONG AND MAY BE EMBEDDED
IN AN AREA OF MORE GENERAL RAIN. A REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY. THE SECOND FRONT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BECAUSE...SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION
WEDNESDAY...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HRS. FEW-SCT250 OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ALSO MAY BE
FEW-SCT100 AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY MAINLY BELOW
12KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 34014G22KT FROM 17Z-24Z AT KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG