


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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256 FXUS63 KLBF 080949 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 449 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will continue through the end of the workweek. - Isolated severe storms will be possible today and Wednesday but widespread severe weather is not expected. Thursday evening/night stands the greatest likelihood for at least a few severe storms. - Warm and humid conditions will give way to drier and somewhat cooler air by Friday into Saturday. - Warming temperatures expected Sunday into Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Upper level ridge will continue to persist across the southwest portions of the U.S. Northwest flow aloft will continue across our region on the northeastern periphery of the ridge. Winds aloft decrease some today, with no real defined disturbance noted within the mid/upper flow. Still, isolated diurnally driven convection appears it will develop in a favorable upslope environment across the Neb. Panhandle late this afternoon. Due to the lack of much upper level forcing, CAMS show a variety of scenarios. It appears that the consensus is for at least isolated thunderstorms to move east from the Panhandle east/southeastward across much of the area tonight. Confidence is not high and will keep POPS on the low side. Southeast low-level flow atop southeast mid/upper flow would support some storm organization...so cannot rule out an isolated strong/severe storm through the evening hours. This would most likely remain west of Hwy 183. A somewhat more robust threat for severe storms could materialize Wednesday evening. A weak shortwave disturbance will approach the western Neb. by late in the afternoon. Winds aloft increase somewhat compared to today, with continued moist low-level southeast flow at the surface. With the increased winds aloft, overall shear looks better for storm organization, with further support from the weak disturbance approaching the area. Appears initial storm development would be within favorable upslope low-level flow regime across northwest Neb. Storms would then track southeastward across the area Wednesday evening. At least some support for supercell characteristics to evolve. Still, coverage looks limited even with the better overall environment. Will continue to monitor. The upper level ridging begins to flatten Thursday with a stronger wave emerging from the Rockies into the area Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. A cold front will be associated with this wave and will be the focus for more widespread thunderstorm development. A few severe storms also appear possible. PWATS increase to near 1.50 inches in the pre-storm environment, so locally heavy rainfall could become an issue. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Cooler weather is expected in a post-frontal environment Friday into Saturday. Scattered showery weather looks possible Friday with mid- level FGEN developing as cooler air aloft filters into the area. This weakens by Saturday with rain chances decreasing/ending. As mentioned it will be cooler, with highs Friday only forecast to reach the lower 70s across portions of northwest Neb. Most areas should be around 80F on Saturday. Upper level ridging then begins to nose northeastward across the desert southwest Sunday into Monday...with a return to highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Expect clearing skies overnight with a few to scattered high clouds around 25000 FT AGL. Skies will remain clear on Tuesday with light and variable winds at under 10 KTS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Buttler