Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200410

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1110 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Pattern remains in transition with weak ridge through the lower
Mississippi Valley and weak ridging into the Great Lakes and Jose
underneath off the coast of Long Island. Broad trough from the
Pacific Northwest into the Dakotas from upper low over central


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Models seem to be in fair agreement this afternoon pushing a
disturbance into the Dakotas over night just barely grazing
northern Zones. Surface trough axis lies from Phillip South
Dakota through the Nebraska Panhandle to Scottsbluff. Closer you
get to the trough axis the lighter the winds. Dense cirrus lying
across all of western Nebraska has inhibited the solar insolation
and inversion is holding low level moisture across the area. See
fire weather discussion below. Lows tonight in the 30s northwest
and the 40s to around 50 elsewhere. Highs on Wednesday only in the
70s as cooler air filters in behind a dry cool front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Long term solutions have some problems with timing of waves but
the transition continues. Wednesday cooler with highs in the 70s
and mainly clear skies behind the cold front. Thursday warmer
with winds becoming southerly and a warm front moving across
western Nebraska. Upper trough makes a big push Thursday night
into Friday with cooler moving across the northern plains. Gulf
opens during the day on Friday with good moisture return into the
central plains. PWATS increase to around 2 standard deviations
above for the season. Concerns for heavy rain through the weekend.
Temperatures trending downward Friday through Sunday 60s and 70s
Friday and the 50 and 60s on Sunday. Temperatures to rebound some
on Monday as upper low shears across the Dakotas. 2 to 4 inches
of rain possible across western Nebraska through the weekend with
the greater amounts east of a Valentine to North Platte line.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Cold front has exited the local forecast area. Latest surface plot
shows winds have all shifted and are northwesterly now. Winds
have decreased in speed through the mid and late evening hours
across much of western NEB. Highest gusts are in far north
central NEB with O`Neill at the top of the hour measuring 43 MPH.
Elsewhere, gusts are largely less than 30 MPH. Winds will
continue to decrease rest of tonight. A few sprinkles with be
possible in northwest NEB late tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions
will prevail the next 24 hours. Winds will shift tomorrow as high
pressure fills in and evolves eastward across the Central Plains.
Winds will shift from westerly and become southerly by mid-late
afternoon. Mostly sunny skies can be expected tomorrow.


Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Will let red flag warning go with zone issuance this afternoon.
Front is slower with winds just now entering northwest Nebraska.
Dense cloud cover today has held back the insolation. Rhs have not
fully mixed out and won`t till the front rolls through. Some areas
may briefly fall into categories as the front moves across and
mixes things out. Minimum relative humidity will fall to around 15
percent over western Nebraska Wednesday and Thursday but the winds
are not expected to be there to get critical conditions.


Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

High river levels will continue along the North Platte River at
Lewellen due to releases in Wyoming.




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