000
FXUS63 KLBF 012339 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
539 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WHICH PRODUCED THE SERIES OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO SIBERIA.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
SUPPORT COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
BE MODEST.

EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY
NIGHT COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ARCTIC COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

THIS FORECAST UPDATE FOCUSES ON THE ENDING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 550 TO 600 MB OR SO WILL PUSH EAST
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SOLUTION IS HANDLING THIS
EVENT THE BEST...SO HAVE LEANED MORE ON THAT SOLUTION COMPARED TO
OTHERS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER 6 PM TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST IN SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS AT AROUND 295K.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER COLD...RANGING FROM -17 TO -5F. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE...
BUT BE ENOUGH TO DIP WIND CHILLS BELOW -20F. HAVE GONE WITH A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS OF
-20 TO NEAR -30 EXPECTED. CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO BUDGE ON SUNDAY...
LEAVING THE AREA WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND MAKING TEMPS HARD TO
RECOVER. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...
ALTHOUGH THAT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT IN THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING THE
ONEILL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND BE LOCATED
OVER MN/IA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SETS UP A COLD RETURN FLOW WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
MPH MONDAY. IF THE MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...THE LOW TEMPS MONDAY
MORNING COULD ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
WEST AND AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST.

A BANK OF STRATUS DEVELOPS IN THE RETURN FLOW WHICH COULD FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR LOWS FROM NEAR ZERO SOUTHWEST TO 15 BELOW ZERO NEAR
VALENTINE. THE RECORD LOW FOR VALENTINE IS -22 MONDAY MORNING.

THE BEST GUESS FOR HIGHS MONDAY IS TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWER 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SOUTH WINDS LIMIT THE VERTICAL MIXING AND THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE A BANK OF STRATUS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS AT LEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSOURI BASIN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SEND A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS THIS
FRONT BACKS IN AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRATUS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE GFS SUGGESTED LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES. THIS WAS LIMITED TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STRATUS WHILE THE ECM
AND GEM ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NAM AND ECM AS A
COMPROMISE FOR HIGHS IN THE 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW FAR THE FRONT DROPS THRU THE
FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE GFS
SHOWS STRATUS DRAPED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CRIS CROSS THE ARCTIC AIR AND PULL IT A
FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LIGHT...LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. THE GEM CARRIES THIS DISTURBANCE
NORTH OF THE FCST WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT THROUGH NCNTL NEB AND THE
ECM THROUGH SWRN/SCNTL NEB.

A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY ALSO WHICH STRENGTHENS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...WARM AIR COULD FINALLY INVADE THE FORECAST AREA
FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS THIS SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH WITH AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THIS HIGH SHOULD
REST OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

VFR CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT KLBF AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. AN AREA OF SNOW OVER
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING EAST WILL SKIRT THE KVTN TAF SITE
AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT INTO VFR CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER