Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 232335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
635 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

A strong shortwave trough will pivot from the central rockies toward
the northern plains tonight through Saturday. As this occurs
stronger forcing will arrive across the area later tonight, and
anticipate scattered elevated thunderstorm development. Prior to
that, surface based thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out
across northwest Sheridan county late this afternoon near a
stationary front. If storms do develop near this front they will
quickly move north into South Dakota due to strong southerly flow
aloft. Otherwise, as mentioned, elevated thunderstorms should
develop across southwest Nebraska late this evening, and then
spread northeast across most of the area. Will keep pops limited
to 30 or 40 percent due to the scattered nature of the storms.
Severe threat is low, but one or two marginally severe storms
could occur.

Scattered elevated morning convection will likely be ongoing across
eastern portions of north central Nebraska Saturday morning, but as
the better forcing shifts east and northeast of the area the
convection should end. A surface cold front will move through the
area Saturday, and models continue to indicate this will should be
east of the area by the time any surface based convection develops
during peak heating Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

The Pacific front will exit the eastern zones early Saturday
evening. This will bring clear skies and breezy northwest winds.
Breezy conditions to continue Sunday with cooler 850mb
temperatures of 9 to 13c. Highs upper 60s to near 70 most areas
with mostly sunny skies. A surface high center will reside over
western Nebraska Sunday night with a light northwest wind. lows
will drop to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some mid 30s should occur
from the eastern panhandle into the Platte River Valley. This may
lead to frost possible.

A broad upper ridge across the Western Conus will begin to bring
slightly warmer 850mb temperatures to western Nebraska. A lack of
mixing however should leave surface temperatures from the upper
60s to lower 70s. Then with very dry air in place and clear skies,
lows again from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper ridge will quickly push east.
this will bring a warmup to the Central Plains with highs
returning to the mid to upper 70s. An upper level disturbance will
move into the Four Corners Region Wednesday, and eventually bring
a chance for showers and thunderstorms to western Nebraska by
Thursday into Thursday night. The GFS is about 12 hours faster
than the euro model (ECMWF), this system should move just east of
the area by next Friday for a dry day. Highs forecast in the upper
70s for both Thursday and Friday next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Gusty southeast winds to 30kts and the potential of wind shear
highlite the aviation forecast through early Saturday morning,
thereafter a wind shift to the northwest is forecast with weaker
wind speeds. There remains a chance of scattered thunderstorm
development this evening and overnight...but outside of any
storms...VFR is forecast to prevail. The near term models are in
good agreement for the next 24 hours...thus forecast confidence is
better than average.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Roberg
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