Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 162135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
335 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Minimal weather concerns are expected through Saturday as high
pressure remains over the region. Dry weather is expected across
north central Nebraska into Saturday. High level clouds increase
across the north tonight as a weak disturbance moves across South
Dakota. These clouds will do little in the way of preventing
radiational cooling overnight. Therefore, overnight low temperatures
will still drop into the low to mid 20s across the forecast area.

The main weather concern for Saturday will be increasing winds in
the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens across western
Nebraska. Expect northwest winds to gust up to 25 to 30 mph by early
afternoon. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and dry weather will
persist throughout the day. Afternoon high temperatures will range
from the upper 30s across the north to the mid 40s south of the I-80

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

H850mb temperatures rise to around 10C Sunday. The models suggest
some high cloudiness will be overhead and this would be most likely
across nrn Neb. The temperature forecast is cooler than the straight
guidance blend which is appropriate dry ground and clear skies. The
blended bias corrected guidance was the basis for highs in the upper
30s to mid 50s. In many areas this should be appropriate for wet,
frozen, partially snow covered ground.

Arctic high pressure, currently over Alaska, will move south into
nrn Neb late Sunday afternoon. The arctic front will be accompanied
by upper level dynamics for likely snow chances Sunday night and
Monday across nrn Neb. Chance POPs are in place farther south. The
better forcing would appear to be across SD. The median QPf across
nrn Sheridan county is between 0.3 and 0.4 inches which could
perhaps produce 6 inches of snow in 12 hr.

The forecast uses a blend of models for about 5 inches of snow
across Sheridan County and holds off on a winter storm watch given
the potential for lighter snowfall. The NAM indicates some dry air
in the warm nose near 700mb across Sheridan county and this would
hold back on the accumulations. The GFS, ECM and GEM don`t show that
dryness and produce about three times more QPF.

This will be a major arctic intrusion, lasting into Wednesday with
highs Monday and Tuesday in the teens to lower 20s. H850mb
temperatures fall to -15C to -20C Tuesday morning which will be the
prime time for wind chill advisories and perhaps even a wind chill
warning in a couple of counties up north.

This arctic high will move slowly across the nrn Plains and ridge
through the cntl Plains. Thus, the cold weather could last through
Wednesday with a gradual warming Thursday and Friday. Sunday will be
the only day with above average high temperatures over the next 7.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

The only major aviation concern over the next day will be the chance
of some low level wind shear and increasing winds tonight and early
Saturday morning. Low level wind shear will mainly impact KLBF
tonight as the low level jet increases over Nebraska. Increasing
surface winds should be expected at both KLBF and KVTN early
Saturday morning. At this time, northwest wind gusts could approach
20 to 25 knots by 15Z. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear,
with just some high level cirrus clouds covering the region tonight
before clearing out again on Saturday morning.




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