Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 150001 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
601 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

The main weather focus over through Wednesday afternoon is the
passage of a surface cold front and mid-level shortwave. As of 21z,
the front was entering far NW Neb near CDR and GRN. A pre-frontal
trough crossed the forecast area this afternoon, clearing out the
stratus. Despite strong lift and forcing this evening, precipitation
is not a concern as moisture is lacking overall. Surface dew point
depressions are 30F+ and H5-7 RH is generally less than 70% per RAP
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings. However, low level saturation
lies just east of the area as seen by a very slowly eroding stratus
deck from MCK to LXN to OFK. Can`t rule out a brief period of patchy
fog in eastern Frontier and Custer counties late this evening before
the fropa. Increased winds along and behind the front as the general
model consensus shows 35+ kt flow at H85, 1.5 PVU sfc reaching
450mb, and sfc pressure changes of 1-2 mb/hr. Therefore, kept
tonight`s lows on the high end of guidance despite clear skies and
strong CAA. H85 temps barely surpass 0C tomorrow and with low level
flow relaxing under a sfc high and mid-level ridge. Made little
change to highs in the lower 50s, which coincides with the cooler
end of guidance (ECS). However, return flow late in the day may help
push temps warmer than forecast in the panhandle.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Rain and snow chances during the next 7 days revolve around a single
event Friday evening. A positively tilted trof moves through with
modest 1030 mb Pacific high pressure to follow Saturday and Sunday.
The forecast leans on the wetter model, the ECM, which shows
stronger midlevel frontogenesis and produces around a tenth of an
inch of liquid. Its rain changing to snow Friday evening as h700mb
temperatures fall into the single digits below zero.

Otherwise the models are in reasonably good agreement with warming
conditions Thursday and Friday. The ECM will back an arctic cold
front into ncntl Neb Tuesday next week. The pattern is progressive
with weather systems in motion. The SREF indicates a fog
free/stratus free forecast through Saturday and the GFS/ECM would
suggest the same ahead of the arctic front next week. The moisture
return in both cases appears to be directed toward the midwest.

The temperature forecast is a model blend plus the previous forecast
plus bias correction. Bias correction had little impact on the
forecast and tended to increase highs a degree or two and lower
minimum temperatures the same. This suggests a predictable pattern
of warming highs into the 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday followed
by a cool down into the 40s Saturday. A warming trend develops
Sunday and Monday. There was no model consensus with the arctic
front next Tuesday. The faster ECM was colder with highs in the 30s
and 40s while the slower GFS kept the high farther north and
featured highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Stratus over eastern Nebraska. Across western Nebraska and the
Sandhills a cold front will move across bringing high clouds into
the area but no precipitation will be associated with the front.
Winds will be the main concern this forecast period with gusty
northwest winds 10 to 15 mph, and gust up to 25 mph overnight,
mainly across the northern Sandhills.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Gomez



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