Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 162121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Issued at 321 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

A split flow regime continues across the CONUS this
morning. A closed low was located over northern Mexico. North of
this feature a trough of low pressure extended from the Gulf of
Alaska to off the coast of northern California. East of this trough,
a high amplitude ridge extended from the central and northern
Rockies north into northern Saskatchewan. Downstream of the ridge,
an upper level low was located over southern Quebec with a trough of
low pressure extending south into New England and the Mid Atlantic.
At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended along the front
ranges of Colorado and Wyoming into southeastern Colorado. East of
this feature, light westerly or northwesterly winds were present
across western and north central Nebraska with wind speeds generally
under 10 MPH. Skies were mainly clear and readings were in the upper
60s to lower 70s.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

A clear and calm night with high pressure dominating. With the dry
air in place, have opted to follow the colder guidance for lows.
Will likely see mid to perhaps lower 20s in the typical cold spots
like the Platte River valley.

A shortwave will cross the northern plains Friday. This will drive a
weak cold front south through the area, with highs a few degrees
cooler than today`s highs. So no record highs Friday, but 60s still
much above normal for this time of year. Northwest winds will
increase some behind the front, with bufkit sounding data indicating
the potential for 25 to 30 mph winds gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Friday night through Sunday:  A benign weather pattern
will continue through Sunday. On Friday, a fast moving northern
stream wave will force a weak cool front into the area Friday. This
will lead to slight cool down in highs for Saturday. Even with the
cooler readings, highs will still reach the upper 50s to lower 60s
which is over 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. High
pressure will build east into the mid Mississippi valley Saturday
night. Southerly winds will increase overnight on the back side
of the exiting high, increasing southerly winds and low level
moisture advection into central and eastern Nebraska. This will
lead to mild lows Saturday night in the 30s to around 40. Aloft,
an upper level trough of low pressure will lift from Baja
California into the four corners Saturday night into Sunday.
Strong warm air advection will lift north across western Kansas
into western Nebraska on Sunday. This will give a 3 to 7 degree
boost to highs on Sunday from Saturday`s highs. The current
forecast is for upper 60s Sunday.

Sunday night through Thursday:  The before mentioned upper level
trough of low pressure aloft, will lift northeast Sunday night into
Monday. Some showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm may
develop Sunday evening across the west as the shortwave trough
approaches western Kansas. The 12z run of the NAM12 and GFS
solutions from this morning did initiate showers across the western
forecast area Sunday night and the mention of such was continued
from the pvs forecast. However the latest 18z NAM solution does
indicate some elevated instability across southwestern Nebraska
through Sunday evening. For now, will leave in a mention of showers
as moisture is fairly meager in the west, where the best forcing and
instability is. The upper level trough will track east of the area
late Monday, with a closed low developing at the base of the trough
over Texas. This will track east across the northern Gulf of Mexico
through the end of the week. At the same time, a low amplitude
pattern is expected through Wednesday with dry and warm temperatures
expected. This will begin to change Wednesday night into Thursday as
a trough of low pressure aloft digs into the central and southern
Rockies. As this feature emerges onto the plains Thursday night into
Friday, a major winter storm may develop across the region. At this
time it is too early to ascertain the track of the system, but it
will need to be closely monitored over the next several days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Light winds and VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into
tonight. VFR will continue into Friday.




LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.