Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 251829
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
129 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR
AND NERN KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR CLOUD...PRECIPITATION...AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SLOWLY SINKING TO
THE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT
THE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL
MORNING SO DOUBTFUL ON ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOCALLY. DID
CHANGE THE WEATHER TYPE TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS LAPS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE WET BULB TRACE NEAR OR BELOW 0C. ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH KIML DOWN TO 35 DEGREES NOW AND REPORTING SNOW.

AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
AS CLOUDS ARE STILL WELL IN PLACE...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILE SATELLITE DOES INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO THIN OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DO EXPECT SUNSHINE TO
WARM THINGS UP A BIT. ANOTHER QUESTION THOUGH IS STRATUS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN IT WILL BREAK UP. ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT...THE SUN
MAY HELP TO START THE PROCESS SO STILL THINKING THE SUN WILL SHINE
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN
AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW
NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55
SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT
TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED
FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT
THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS
IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
LATE MORNING OR NEAR 18Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL DECREASE...WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING OF LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. BUT...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING
CEILINGS OF 3-5K FEET AROUND MID MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY
FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE
PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG






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