Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 212037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Ridging over the central US will hold for much of the period while a
low persists in the north Pacific and over New England. The north
Pacific Low will send out a wave early next week that will briefly
break down the ridge with heights expected to stay a bit lower for
the rest of the week but no real outbreaks of Arctic air on the
horizon. Late next week, a low pressure system over the Canadian
Archipelago and its associated trough could swing through the
northern tier states possibly cooling temps off again briefly
early in the weekend but again, it would be short lived.


.SHORT TERM...(through Tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Upper level ridging across the central US will result in surface
high pressure remaining over the region. Dry weather will remain
across central Nebraska with light winds. Clear skies will allow
overnight low temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s across
the entire forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

With ridging aloft, warm and dry air is expected to remain in place
through the weekend. 850MB temperatures of 15C to 22C will easily
support highs in the 70s to near 80 at all locations. Lower 80s
possible across southwest Nebraska. Very dry air in place and
heightened fire weather concerns are expected. Winds aloft will be
fairly swift, at 30 to 35kt at H7 out of the west with southwest
flow at 15 to 20 kt at the surface. These winds are expected to mix
down at times with a few gusts in the afternoon expected to further
enhance fire danger. Later in the afternoon, a short wave with a
weak surface reflection is expected to swing by in the afternoon. It
will provide a sudden wind shift from southwest to northwest after
21Z that could present a challenge if any fires were to start.

A slightly more substantial shortwave will quickly cross southern
Canada and the far northern plains Sunday. This will drive a dry
cold front south through the area, but temperatures will still
be above normal behind the front with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

Overall expect upper level ridging to dominate this coming
work week. A shortwave will dampen the ridge mid week when a few
showers or a thunderstorm is possible. Otherwise dry and quite
mild with highs mid 60s to lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Surface high pressure over much of the central US will keep
aviation conditions quiet over the next couple days. Cirrus clouds
over both terminals this afternoon will give way to mostly clear
skies by evening. Light winds continue into the evening and
overnight hours. Winds increase at KVTN Saturday morning, with gusts
up to 21 knots. Winds will remain around 10 knots at KLBF on
Saturday morning.


Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Fire weather concerns increase on Saturday as warm and very dry air
shift east across the northern plains. For Saturday, relative
humidities are expected to drop into the 15 to 20 percent range over
western Nebraska. With stronger winds expected in the afternoon
(gusts up to 28 mph) combined with low RH values, a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for zones 204, 206, and 208.


Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for NEZ204-206-208.



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