Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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174
FXUS63 KLBF 212342 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
642 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Main concern for tonight will be the chance of showers and
thunderstorms across central Nebraska. The majority of the storms
will be centered east of the forecast area, but there is still a
slight chance of a storm or two impacting the extreme eastern
portions of the CWA (east of a O`Neill to Broken Bow line).
Strongest storms will be concentrated to the east of the region
as supported by the current SPC outlook shifting the severe
potential east across eastern Nebraska. Therefore not expecting
any severe storms to hit the eastern areas of our forecast area,
however an isolated stronger storm with small hail and brief
gusty winds is possible.

Fog is also possible across the extreme northern counties
Thursday morning as boundary layer moisture increases. Have
included patchy fog in the forecast for now, as enough low level
dry air and winds around 10 mph will keep fog from developing
into extremely dense patches. Overnight low temperatures drop
into the low 50s across the northwest ranging up to the low 60s
across the southeast.

For Thursday, cloudy and dry conditions will prevail as shower
and thunderstorm potential once again remains to the east and
north of our area. Will account for only about 20 percent chance
of precipitation late in the afternoon across mainly Holt and
Boyd counties as the next disturbance tries to nudge it`s way
into north central Nebraska. Have lowered high temperatures
slightly for Thursday as clouds are expected to stick around much
of the day. Will see afternoon highs in the low 60s across the
north and low 80s across the southern forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Closed low across the desert southwest will slowly lift to the
northeast into the weekend, reaching the northern plains by
Sunday. Beyond Sunday models vary greatly on where the low moves
from there. A few of the models continue to lift the low into
Canada with a second low developing across the southern plains.
This low then lifts and rotates for a few days across the central
plains into mid week. The GFS and most of its ensemble members
keep this northern low as the dominate low, stalling it across
the northern plains.

Thursday night a warm front will lift north across the area.
Meanwhile an upper level weak wave will lift across the area and
could result in a few showers. There is a slim chance for a few
showers with the wave although support is not as good as
yesterday so pops have been trimmed back. The better moisture is
across north central Nebraska and will retain chance pops. Clouds
and abundant low level moisture will keep lows very mild in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

Friday will see very warm temps as thermal ridge noses into the
region ahead of a cold front. Guidance in the 80s and with some
compressional heating ahead of the front a few locations could
reach 90. Also with good boundary layer mixing some strong winds
will be possible at the surface, guidance and forecast push south
winds to 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts anticipated. A band of
thunderstorms expected with the passage of the cold front Friday
night.

Cooler for Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Some lingering showers in the east as front continues to push
across eastern Nebraska. Wrap around from the upper low over the
central rockies could push some precip into far NW Nebraska
although low confidence as this time and mainly in the morning.
Low should lift to the northern Rockies by mid day and precip
should remain to the north and west.

Cooler still for Sunday and dry. Highs in the 60s and precip
should remain to the northern of the area and well east along the
frontal boundary.

Next week forecast follows the blend of the models as high
uncertainty for any one solution. If the low remains strong over
the northern plains will have to monitor temperatures as this
could draw some cool canadian air to the high plains. This would
favor temps possibly close to freezing if there is a clear night.
This would be close to the 50 percent chance for the first fall
freeze.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Frontal boundary lies from KONL to KBBW to KIML. North winds under
10kts to the north and west of the front and southeast to easterly
winds to the south and east of the front. Some virga or sprinkles
around western Nebraska this evening. Stratus will fill in behind
the front this evening with cigs lowering into mvfr categories and
then ifr and lifr categories. Winds strong enough fog should hold
off till around sunrise. KVTN will remain in stratus through the
day on Thursday with ceilings at KLBF improving into vfr
categories through the afternoon.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Power



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