Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 192330 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
630 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Tonight and tomorrow.  Main forecasting challenge in the near term
revolves around precipitation chances tied to a secondary cold front
this evening.  The boundary is currently crossing into far northwest
Nebraska early this afternoon.  The near term solutions have a good
handle on the current situation thus a general blend of the HRRR and
Nam12 to the current forecast was used.  The boundary and associated
precipitation threat is shown to cross the cwa this evening as an
upper trough digs south across the northern plains. It appears that
the greatest forcing will be across northwest Nebraska and the
northern Sandhills.  Will go with likely pops there then trend lower
to strong chance wording to the south and east.  Models show little
in the way of CAPE for convection, but will continue the mention of
isolated thunderstorms up until midnight as a few strikes have been
noted upstream.  Thereafter we will go with a prevailing shower
mention. The blend of the solutions yields anywhere from a few
hundreths to as much as two tenths of an inch additional qpf.
Most locations, except for those along the border, should see the
lighter amounts.  The greatest forcing for qpf is to the east of the
cwa after midnight, but will retain a slight chance across our
northeast through 09z to account for any lingering showers, and dry
thereafter. Lows overnight will be cool as CAA spills south behind
the front. The available guidance indicates lower 40s over Sheridan
and northern Garden County tonight, with upper 40s elsewhere along
and west of highway 83.  East of the highway, lower 50s will prevail
owing to cloud cover.

Otherwise high pressure builds behind the front bringing dry and
cool conditions for Saturday.  The latest guidance supports highs in
the lower to mid 70s across the cwa.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

No major changes to mid or long term solutions. Clearing skies
Saturday night with winds becoming calm. Cool Canadian surface
high pressure over western Nebraska with temperatures brisk in the
40s for overnight lows. Upper trough moves east and next system
moving into Pacific northwest will sharpen ridge through northern
plains with some 90s on Sunday and dry. Monday will again be warm
with temperatures approaching 90. Just slightly cooler Tuesday as
heights begin to fall across the northern plains as upper closed
low moves into the eastern plains of Montana. The next cool front
is pushed through by this upper closed system on Tuesday night
into Wednesday with increasing chances for thunderstorms with the
frontal passage. Temperatures cooling into the later part of the
week as cool Canadian high pressure builds in.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The main concerns this aviation package are precipitation and
ceilings/visibilities. KLNX radar depicts an area of light rain
showers with the leading edge along a line roughly from Sparks to
Purdum to Ringgold to Sutherland at 6 PM CDT. However, these
showers have began to fall apart between 5 PM CDT and now as they
move into portions of north central NE. This trend is expected to
continue. The leading edge of these showers were moving generally
southeast at around 25 mph. Looking upstream, another swath of
showers exist in the NE Panhandle and southeast WY that is moving
east into the forecast area as well. These will continue to move
east into the forecast area. Best chances for precipitation
between now and midnight will be mainly confined north of I-80,
specifically across north central NE. Elsewhere, decreased chances
south of I-80.

Surface plot denotes low-end VFR and MVFR cigs across the NE
Panhandle and in southeast WY. Confidence has increased that
these ceilings will move into the forecast area within the next 1
to 3 hrs. Thus, introduced high-end MVFR in the TAFs this evening.
In regard to fog, current thinking is winds will prevent fog
development as winds stay elevated overnight. Will need to
monitor, especially as we approach dawn.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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