Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241213
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
713 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Stalled surface boundary across central Nebraska into northwest
Kansas. MCS ongoing across north central Kansas/south central
Nebraska. A small area of showers/thunderstorms across far
northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. This is following a
mid level disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Morning showers and thunderstorms to impact southwest Nebraska
pushing into central Nebraska as mid level disturbance drifts to
the northeast. Not much in severe parameters in the models with
this wave and expect the showers to be general will little threat
for severe weather.

This changes by this afternoon. The next disturbance will eject
across the central Rockies by midday. Thunderstorms expected to
fire across the panhandle of Nebraska/northeast Colorado then
lift to the northeast into the forecast area. Sfc based cape is
highest across southwest Nebraska with around 2k j/kg also seeing
pwats greater than an inch so locally heavy rainfall is a
possibility. Northwest Nebraska on the other hand is not
impressive for sfc based cape, however elevated cape (MUCAPE) is
over 2k j/kg and is in a favored hail growth zone. Thus concern
for severe thunderstorms, especially large hail later today.
Model congeal the activity into an MCS that will track across the
CWA overnight.

Temps for today with some pockets of sun initially, to aid in
warming highs into the mid 70s to around 80. Tonight in the wake
of the storms, dry air and cool temps across the west, upper 40s
to lower 50s. Clouds and showers keep much of north central in
the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Weak surface high pressure builds into the central Plains on
Wednesday, allowing conditions to dry out. Plenty of sunshine
will result in temperatures reaching up into the low 80s for much
of the CWA (upper 70s across the northwest portion). Thunderstorm
and rain chances return on Thursday night, though, as a surface
low pressure system develops over Colorado and moves
northeastward. This low will continue to bring rain chances to
central Nebraska through Saturday with severe chances being low
at this time. Temperatures will drop a few degrees on Thursday
and Friday as a result of the rain showers (mid 70s on Thursday,
low 70s on Friday).

High pressure tries to build back into the region on Sunday,
however, this will be short-lived as the pattern of shortwave
troughs continue to move into the high plains for the beginning
of next week. Temperatures remain fairly steady through the
weekend with most locations observing high temps in the mid to
upper 70s through Monday, with a few isolated locations
potentially observing low 80s on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A few light showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible
this morning across southwest Nebraska, however expect activity to
be isolated so will not mention in KLBF taf. Otherwise mostly
sunny with some passing high clouds until the next short wave
moves across the area this afternoon into tonight. Expect the
thunderstorms to develop across western Nebraska by mid afternoon
and move east this evening and overnight. The storms are expected
to be strong to severe with gusty winds and large hail possible.
Behind the band of storms...decreasing clouds can be expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Little change continues along the North Platte River as releases
hold steady and the heavy rain fell north of the basin. This
could change as rainfall, locally heavy, is possible later today.
Will continue to monitor. The minor wave has pushed through the
Brady gage along the Platte River with the gage reading starting
to fall slightly, still very near minor flood stage. Meanwhile
the South Platte River continues to run high, although no
flooding at this time. Again will need to monitor rainfall as
locally heavy rainfall is a possibility.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Masek
SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Masek
HYDROLOGY...Masek



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