000
FXUS63 KLBF 252357 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
657 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEK AND FORM A CUT OFF
LOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM  CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

TONIGHT...STILL WATCHING TWO AREAS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT...THE
FIRST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VCNTY OF THE DRYLINE WHERE
THE DEW POINT GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS AREA DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM AND OTHER
SHORT TERM MODELS. MID AFTERNOON SURFACE HAND ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS
THOUGH THAT THE DRYLINE IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...THEN SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL CO. IN
ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT EML EXISTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND THE FEW
CU THAT HAVE DEVELOPED INDICATE THAT. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS TO THIS POINT...DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. DO BELIEVE AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO MIX EWD THE
CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSRA TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FURTHER NORTH...VERY GOOD INSTABILITY EXISTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SHOULD EML BE OVERCOME AND THEREFORE A SVR THREAT DOES EXIST FOR
ERN PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.

THE 2ND AND BETTER FORCED AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH THE WARM FRONT
THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...CLOSE TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR OR NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBBW TO MERRIMAN.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA HAS BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/POOLING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER DEEP MOIST
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SOME CAP STILL EXISTS IN
THIS AREA AS WELL THOUGH WITH THE BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SUGGESTED IN THIS AREA WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA AS WELL. VISIBLE SAT PICS SHOWS BROAD CU FIELD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO BETTER THETA-E /DEEPER MOISTURE/ LOCATED NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. MCS POTENTIAL BEST HERE OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS FURTHER W SHOULD MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AS LLJ DEVELOPS
AFTER SUNSET.

FOR SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE A CONCERN GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM LBF TO VTN WHERE MAIN MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SETTLE. THIS
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO BURN OFF IN THE MORNING...BUT DO EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS WITH STRONG
INSOLATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED
FURTHER WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE BEST MCS CHANCES FURTHER
WEST AS WELL. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AGAIN...BUT GENERALLY 80S TO NEAR 90 IN FAR SOUTHWEST...WEST OF
WHERE MORNING CLOUDS WILL EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TUCKED ACROSS ERN COLO. BOUTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...SOME SEVERE...WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO
MOVE EAST INTO WRN KS. ONCE THE CONVECTION WEAKENS THE LOW SHOULD
REESTABLISH ITSELF FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE COLO PLAINS. WINDS ALOFT
AT 500 MB REMAIN WEST SOUTHWEST AND STEADY AT 20 TO 30 KTS. WITH THE
SFC LOW ACROSS ERN COLO LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH
THEN VEER TO SOUTH AT 850 MB. THUS SHEAR IS FCST TO REMAIN MODEST TO
STRONG AT TIMES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 3500
DAILY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SHOWS THE SFC LOW
DEEPENING TO AROUND 992-995 MB BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM WAS THE
DEEPEST AT 986 MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MORE FOCUS IN THE SFC DEW PTS
AND A SHARPENING UP OF THE DRYLINE WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A TRIPLE
POINT SETTING UP DAILY ACROSS NWRN KS. THE MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU NRN COLO WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING SUPPORTING
STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE OFF THE COLO ROCKIES MONDAY AND THE MODELS
STEER THIS DISTURBANCE INTO WRN KS AND SWRN MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL DATA PLUS BIAS CORRECTION
FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE SFC LOW SHOULD PULL COOL
AIR INTO NWRN NEB FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO MID 80S
SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
THE MODELS ARE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND SEND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. H700 MB TEMPS FALL FROM
12C TO AROUND 3C AND MAX TEMPS FALL FROM THE 70S AND 80S WEDNESDAY
TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY SATURDAY. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT
IMPINGING ON THE FCST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE FCST. A LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY PRODUCING SCATTERED TSTM
COVERAGE. COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD DO THE SAME
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCE DECREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SOUTH BUT
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO
OPERATE DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING OVER MOST
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE ARE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN
HAYES CENTER AND CURTIS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHERN CUSTER COUNTY. STILL
A CAP IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. STRONGER WAVE TO
PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 2606Z. THIS IS WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 2612Z. STRATUS
TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER