Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 281727 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Mostly sunny today with north winds this morning becoming northeast
around 10 mph this afternoon. There is some low level moisture but
very dry aloft. PW`s on the central and high plains around 70
percent of normal. Models continue subsidence over the northern
plains. Have cut highs back with cooler air aloft and weak cold air
advection today. North central zones...Oneill...will see highs in
the mid to upper 60s with southwest and west seeing highs around 80.
Continued mostly clear tonight as upper ridge pushes east on the
backside of upper low to the east continues its trek to the
southeast into southern Great Lakes. Warmer over night with
lows around 40 and some upper 30s in low lying areas. Dry.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper level ridging will dominate the weather across the central
portions of the U.S. through the weekend. Meanwhile, a cut off area
of low pressure and unsettled weather will be located across the
Great Lakes region, and to our west a developing upper trough of low
pressure will be taking shape across the Pacific northwest. With the
upper level ridging in control through the weekend, expect continued
mild to warm conditions. By late in the weekend, southwest flow aloft
will begin to take shape ahead of the developing western U.S. upper
trough. This will funnel some Pacific moisture into the region,
with a slight chance for thunder maintained in the forecast.

Attention turns to the upper trough for the beginning and middle
parts of next week. The latest run of the ECMWF has dug the base of
upper trough farther south through the four corners region and
emerges into the central plains as a strong negatively tilted system
with severe thunderstorms Tuesday followed by a strong northwest
wind and cold rain for Wednesday. The GFS remains consistent with
it`s previous run and keeps the majority of the upper level energy
and associated weather across the northern plains. The GEFS mean
would also favor a more northern track, but some members are farther
south like the ECMWF. For now will not make many changes to the
forecast during this time period, but the model trends will be
monitored closely for the possibility of a stronger farther south
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Visual flight rules expected the next 24 hours. Under clear skies
light and variable winds will become northeast through the
afternoon around 10kts eventually turning more southerly this
evening. Winds will eventually become light and variable again
tonight under clear skies.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Allen



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