Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 271158
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
558 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

H5 ANALYSIS  FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SWD
TO CAPE HATTERAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW
MEXICO...NNW INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND SWRN CANADA. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND NRN FLORIDA. IN ADDITION
TO THESE FEATURES...A CUTOFF LOW WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AN SRN PLAINS. ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA INTO
NERN WYOMING...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S AS OF 3 AM CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. FOR TODAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST WITH ITS AXIS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 00Z THIS EVENING. VERY
WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TDY...WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM 15C IN THE EAST...TO 19C IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...UTILIZED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...AS THE MET
GUIDANCE...SEEMS TO HAVE A COOL BIAS...WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UTILIZING THE MAV GUIDANCE YIELDED HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE SRLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NORTH
PLATTE...IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA...GAVE A 1-2 DEG BOOST TO MAV
HIGHS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH YIELDED A HIGH OF
73 IN NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. IF A HIGH OF 73 WERE TO OCCUR
IN NORTH PLATTE...WE WOULD SHATTER THE RECORD HIGH OF 67 SET
PREVIOUSLY IN 2003 AND WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR
JANUARY. FOR IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...FCST HIGHS TDY
ARE 73...69 AND 69 RESPECTIVELY. RECORD HIGHS FOR
IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...ARE 67...74...AND 68...SO
RECORD HIGHS FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL SHOULD BE TIED OR BROKEN
TODAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MIN RH BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 20
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH EXPECTED. FOR
TONIGHT...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST FORCED ALONG BY
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH STILL 6C TO 12C FOR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP MIX THE BL AND HIGHS
STILL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRAILS LATE IN THE DAY. MARGINAL LIFT AND A DRY LOWER
LEVEL...HOWEVER DECENT MOISTURE ALOFT RIDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS NW...HIGHER TERRAIN...IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE NAM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS SOME WILL BE
LOST TO SATURATION. FORECAST IS FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES.

WESTERLY RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SURGES SOUTH...AFTERNOON
TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
FIRST IS THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH...WHICH ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE A 500 MB LOW DIGS OVER SRN CAL INTO THE DESERT
SW. ALSO SEEING A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL
DRAW SOME MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD. OVERALL THERE IS
A CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONG WITH THIS SOUTHWESTER LOW. RESULTING
WEATHER FOR THE AREA HAS CHANGED WITH MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL MAKE...AND HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WILL PLAY INTO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO THE CWA. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND ZERO C FRIDAY NIGHT AND FALLING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT HEATING...HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL LIGHT SNOW. THE LATEST EC IS THE COOLEST
WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -6 TO -10 C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS -2 TO -5. FORECAST IS A
BLEND...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE 20S WOULD BE FAVORED IF THE COOLER
EC VERIFIES.

SUNDAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RVR VALLEY. THE
COLDEST AIR IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER N CENTRAL
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS NEAR 10. THE SW IS WARMEST
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IS
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB






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