Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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842
FXUS63 KLBF 132110
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
310 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

The latest forecast models continue to show a weak upper level
disturbance that will bring an additional shot of light snow to the
forecast area.  Outside of increasing pops, there were no big
changes to the inherited forecast.  Snowfall accumulations are
expected to range from a dusting to as much as possibiliy an inch or
two.  The heaviest accumulations appear lie along a line from
western Cherry County through Custer and Garfield/Wheeler Counties.
With a return of south or southwest flow overnight, and the presence
of clouds, overnight lows will be warmer.  The latest guidance
indicates teens for our far east, but possibly as warm as the mid
20s over our far west.  The lowest temperatures appear to come
before midnight, before gradually warming toward dawn.

Active northwest flow aloft will usher the next disturbance across
the CWA during the afternoon hours on Sunday.  In advance of this
feature, downsloping flow and a warm front will allow temperatures
to rise in the mid 30s to possibly as warm as the mid 40s.  The
guidance may be a bit optimistic on the temperature forecast given
the amount of expected clouds, but even so, temperatures will be
warmer.  The warming will allow for a mix of rain/snow or a change
over to rain as the band of precip drops south from the Dakotas
along a front.  Strong CAA behind the front will allow for rapid
cooling late afternoon across northern Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

In the long term solutions there is some noise in the Monday through
Wednesday time frame. Down stream a large ridge off shore of the
Atlantic coast. Then there is a large trough from the northern
plains into the southeast CONUS. Sharp ridge over the western CONUS
and a trough off the Pacific coast.

Arctic air will move south behind a cold frontal boundary Sunday
evening. Areas of light rain and a mix of rain and snow will develop
over southwest Nebraska generally south of Interstate 80 early
Sunday evening with snow north of Interstate 80. Changeover to all
snow will be quick over southwest Nebraska. 110kt+ jet overhead.
Sharply colder Sunday night into Monday as Arctic air gives western
Nebraska a glancing blow. Light snow continuing through the morning
on Monday. Wind chill advisory criteria most likely Monday morning
will wait for later forecasts to narrow the advisory area.
Temperatures in the single digits below zero north Monday morning
and the single digits south above zero. Highs Monday in the single
digits generally with brisk cold air advection. Very cold Monday
night into Tuesday with clearing skies and fresh snow cover
temperatures falling from 5 below to 15 below zero and may have to
lowered some. Apparent temperatures 20 below to 29 below zero. Ridge
pushes east Tuesday with rebounding temperatures as winds shift to
the southwest. Temperatures above zero Wednesday morning with
increasing warm air advection and southwest flow. As the ridge
builds east through the end of the week temperatures will rise into
the 30s Wednesday to the upper 40s Friday and dry. A Pacific cold
front will move through western nebraska on Saturday with
temperatures falling back into the 30s and chances of snow.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

MVFR or lower ceilings with light snow and periodic visibility
reductions to 1sm are possible across west central Nebraska today
and tonight. The snow chances will be isolated and light
initially, but coverage and intensity should increase this evening
with the approach of a mid tropospheric wave. Expect updates to
the forecast with the onset of snow, but for now the most likely
timing of the lowest ceilings/visibility looks to occur between
00-06z this evening at both KVTN and KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jacobs
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Jacobs



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