Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 201116 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
616 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Stratus will spread through most of the fcst area this morning
and mix out late this afternoon. The temperature forecast follows
3 closely matched guidance datasets for highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

The isolated showers and thunderstorms on radar this morning were
well predicted by the models. The models show this convection
dissipating once the low level jet veers off east around 12z-15z
this morning. A second area of isolated showers and thunderstorms is
forecast to develop across Wrn Neb tonight by the NAM model.

Moisture will deepen tonight with stratus redeveloping across the
fcst area. The NAM shows drizzle developing toward 12z as the
moisture deepens to around 800mb. Sfc dew points should rise to the
lower 50s. The SREF model shows a high probability of ceilings below
1000 ft which could cause fog to form on the hill tops and highest
elevations of the Wrn Sandhills.

South winds continue today at 15 to 25 mph...southeast at 10 to 15
mph tonight. The models are in strong agreement that strong south
winds will continue through Sunday which would mark the fourth day
of return moisture.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

High pressure will continue to slowly shift eastward on Saturday.
Have added a slight chance of some drizzle and patchy fog to the
forecast for Saturday morning as current model soundings show enough
low level moisture to support some light precipitation or fog.
Otherwise, Saturday remains mostly dry but cloudy, with a low chance
of some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon as a result of
daytime heating. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
thunderstorm development on Saturday will depend on how much mixing
can occur during the day and if the cap can be overcome. High
temperatures on Saturday will be in the low to mid-70s.

The next major weather concern will be on Sunday afternoon and
evening as a cold front pushes across the northern plains. Models
are in agreement that thunderstorm initiation will likely be after
1pm Sunday as temperatures rise. Plenty of moisture (surface
dewpoints near 60) and warm temperatures (highs in the low 80s) will
contribute to the instability of the atmosphere allowing
thunderstorms develop quickly. The latest SPC outlook has put
western Nebraska into the slight risk category so severe storms are
also possible.

The cold front will be across eastern Nebraska by Monday morning
bringing a brief break from the rain and thunderstorms. In addition,
behind the cold front a cooler arms will result in cooler
temperatures to surge into the region. High temperatures remain in
the mid to upper 70s through next Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorm
chances return on Tuesday as a series shortwave troughs pivot across
central Nebraska. At this time severe weather is not expected with
the storms next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

MVFR/IFR cigs this morning improve to vfr this aftn. IFR cigs are
expected to become widespread tonight as deeper moisture presses
into the fcst area. local lifr may develop along and west of
Highway 61 where fog may form.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are predicted tonight...06z-12z across
the Wrn Sandhills...west of Mullen. The isolated showers underway
across the Sandhills this morning are progged to dissipate 15z-
17z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Lake McConaughy is releasing 4000 cfs into the North Platte
River with 9000 cfs of inflow coming from Wyoming. The Keystone
inlet reduces the 4000 cfs to 2500 cfs which is currently moving
through North Platte. There is no change to the N.P. River forecast
philosophy and any change to the forecast will depend on the release
of water from Lake McConaughy.

Snowmelt continues to move down the South Platte River causing
elevated levels on the South Platte River and on the Platte river
when combined with the flow from the North Platte River.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...CDC



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