Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 242329 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREENLAND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
LOWS WERE NOTED IN THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH FEATURES
NOTED OVER NRN ONTARIO...NEW BRUNSWICK...AND GREENLAND PROPER.
RIDGING EXTENDED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREENLAND LOW
WELL NORTH OF INUVIK NW TERRITORIES. ACROSS THE LOWER 48...A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM ERN CANADA SWD TO THE SERN
STATES. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER
NRN AZ WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD INTO SRN
CALIFORNIA.  ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA...THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN MT...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WAS PRESENT ALOFT. WARMER PACIFIC AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE
REGION TDY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ACROSS FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA...SNOW COVER HAS HELD TEMPS BACK TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR NERN
MONTANA...INTO NERN SD AND NRN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
FRONT WERE IN THE TEENS OVER NRN MINNESOTA AND NERN ND...WHILE
READINGS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIP TYPE. LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO STAY MILD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF. ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...ENHANCING RADIATIONAL COOLING
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SOUTHWESTWARD STARTING LATE TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...FRONTOGENTIC LIFT WILL HELP TO INITIATE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LOOKS TO BE AFTER 12Z AS THE AIR ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL BE DRY TO START OUT AND WILL NEED TO BECOME
SATURATED BEFORE SNOWFALL OCCURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE DRY LAYER
SATURATES THE WET BULB TRACE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. DONT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURING
DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...BUT IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR
IN THIS TIME FRAME...FELT THE POTENTIAL NEEDED TO BE MENTIONED.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

HIGHS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE REACHED DURING THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL
WITH THE PASSING FRONT. ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX STARTING
AFTER 15Z AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID DAY. BUT AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE DAY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID RANGE...WEDS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES IN THE WEST WEDS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
EACH DAY...AND EXPECTED LOWS BELOW ZERO WEDS NIGHT AND THURS NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC AIR WILL BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH BITTERLY COLD H85 TEMPS OF -14 IN THE SW TO -21C IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND FAR WESTERN ZONES INVOF SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280K
AND 285K THETA SURFACES. DECREASED COND PRESSURE DEFICITS WERE NOTED
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...LENDING SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AS MOISTURE WITHIN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS REMAINS LIMITED AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE OVER NERN
COLORADO. LOWS WEDS NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. BASED ON H85 TEMPS...BELOW ZERO LOWS
WOULD BE PROBABLE...HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN THE WEST...AND NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. FOR
THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS
WITH A SECONDARY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FCST H85 TEMPS AT 21Z THURSDAY REMAIN DOWNRIGHT
CHILLY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM -13C IN THE SOUTHWEST...TO -22C IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT NOTED BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING OFF TO 8 BELOW TO 2 ABOVE ZERO.  THE COLDEST READINGS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NERN ZONES INVOF OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE
SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH WHERE
SOME CLOUDS MAY COME INTO PLAY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SERN
PANHANDLE. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
FRIDAY...RECYCLING ARCTIC AIR NWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAYS READINGS...WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER 20S FORECAST...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ARCTIC AIR
REMAINING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE LIKE JANUARY VS. EARLY MARCH.
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH SOME 30S
ARRIVING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A LEAD DISTURBANCE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS KANSAS...EASTERN COLORADO AND
SRN NEBRASKA. ATTM...THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR SNOW
ACROSS KANSAS AND FAR SRN NEBRASKA. DID SOME RETOOLING OF POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA. FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS DESERT SW INTO TEXAS. PCPN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH COLD AND DRY CONDS FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB 06Z-12Z
AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF NEB HIGHWAY 2. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR 21Z-00Z WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 15Z-18Z AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS
INTO SRN NEB.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS/GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC





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