Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 190932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
432 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

The primary concern in the short term revolves around shower and
thunderstorm chances over the small hours through the afternoon.
Other forecast challenges include: highs, winds today, and sky
cover. The latest radar images show an uptick in returns over the
last 30 mins with respect to intensity and areal coverage across
the western Sandhills and north central NEB. Scattered elevated
showers and thunderstorms are located over Cherry County, across
Custer-Logan counties, and exiting Holt-Wheeler counties.
Otherwise, intensity is pretty low-end at the top of the hour.
Convective activity supported by large scale forcing for ascent
as a modest shortwave trough is tracking east across the central
Rockies into the High Plains. Additional support is present with
amplifying low-level warm air advection (e.g., 700 hPa and 850-700
hPa) across the region and steepening mid-level lapse rates
(700-500 hPa approaching 8 C/km). Latest mesoanalysis shows
moderate instability with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg over much of
western and north central NEB. The primary threat is expected to
be solely hail given the environment and elevated nature of
expected storms. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage across north central NEB through the morning
in response to increase low-level warm air advection. Chances
then begin to diminish early afternoon onward.

Mid-level trough amplification is expected over the next 18 hours
as the mid-level flow evolves with a shortwave trough tracking
eastward and being positioned over eastern ND-eastern SD-eastern
NEB by early evening tonight. Meanwhile, a 1006 mb surface low is
present in eastern CO with a surface warm front extending east
roughly from northwest KS to extreme northeast KS. The location of
the warm front is expected to lift northward and extend from
southeast NEB east across southern IA by mid afternoon. Meanwhile,
a cold front is expected to advance from late morning to late
afternoon across western and north central NEB. Thus will see
winds shift in response to the frontal passage. Breezy conditions
will prevail today with the strongest winds in the eastern NEB
Panhandle and far western NEB. The aforementioned precipitation
chances will taper off as the cold front moves through this
afternoon. Much cooler conditions across the north today compared
to yesterday with some locations in the northern-third seeing
highs 5-10 degrees below normal. Slightly cooler or similar highs
expected across the Interstate 80 corridor on south. Lows
overnight dip into the lower 30s to near 40 from west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Upper level ridging will build across the region Thursday ahead of
the next storm system set to cross the area Friday. Looks like
plenty of sunshine will dominate Thursday and a mild day with
highs in the 60s. Upper level low pressure will take shape across
Wyoming Thursday night with increasing cloud cover across western
Nebraska. GFS, ECMWF and GFS Ensemble mean all agree the upper low
pressure will develop southeast toward western Kansas by midday
Friday. Expect rain showers to expand in coverage across western
and southwest Nebraska during the day Friday and then slide
southeast of the area Friday night as the upper level low shifts
eastward across Kansas. Cool east upslope low level flow will keep
highs in the 50s Friday, and possibly only upper 40s across far
western Nebraska where clouds and rain are likely.

Weekend is looking dry as upper level ridging once again takes
control. Light winds Saturday will become south and breezy on
Sunday as a leeward trough develops along the front range, with a
tightening pressure gradient from east to west. Highs will range
from the low to mid 60s Saturday, warming to the low to mid 70s on

Monday into Tuesday, expect a shortwave to track across the
northern plains. This could bring a few showers to northern
Nebraska, but most of the area looks to remain dry at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Front lying to south over northwest Kansas tonight with stratus
developing to the north of the front across western Nebraska through
the early morning hours of Wednesday. Storm system will move across
the Dakotas tonight with thunderstorms developing over mainly
northern Nebraska after 06z. Some isolated showers in high based aoa
09010kft mid clouds moving over northwest Nebraska and along the
Nebraska South Dakota border. Main show through the early morning
hours and will mainly affect KVTN as upper low moves across the
Dakotas. Showers and thunderstorms to continue into Wednesday
morning with MVFR cigs moving out of western Nebraska through the




LONG TERM...Taylor
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