Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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782
FXUS63 KLBF 280842
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
342 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

A belt of 45 to 55kt winds at h500mb will provide strong shear
for severe storm development today. The model consensus is keeping
the instability...both sfc and elevated... across the Neb
Panhandle...Swrn Neb and Ern Colo... mostly west of the forecast
area. Despite the weak instability across Ncntl Neb...the NAM
radar reflectivity product would suggest strong to severe storms
will develop across Ncntl Neb this aftn. The HRRR...NMM and ARW
models are farther west with this feature. The model consensus
suggests significant thunderstorm potential along and west of a
line from Valentine to Broken Bow. POPs are as high as 60 percent
today and tonight.

The disturbance of interest is over Srn MT this morning and water
vapor suggests strong dynamics which could steepen lapse
rates...perhaps into Ncntl Neb. The severe weather forecast follows
the SPC forecast covering Wrn Neb with severe weather potential. The
NAM and RAP show very little MUcape across Ncntl Neb.

Blended guidance plus bias correction produces highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s today. Significant cloud cover is expected with
rounds of thunderstorms developing morning...afternoon and night.
With dew points in the 60s...periods of sun could warm temperatures
into 80s...steepen lapse rates...generate instability and produce
storms capable of severe weather.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Northwest flow aloft continues Friday as the upper level ridge of
high pressure remains centered across the desert southwest. An
upper level disturbance embedded within the flow will be exiting
off to the east Friday morning, with little upper support the
remainder of the day to have more than a slight chance pop for
rainfall. Otherwise at least partial sunshine will help
allow temperatures to rise to around 80 degrees by afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday, will maintain a slight chance pop due
to very weak impulses moving southeast across the area, but cannot
find any upper level support to go with a higher pop. It will
begin to warm Saturday as southerly flow advects warmer air north.
H850mb temperatures rise into the 20s Celsius by afternoon which
will easily support highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more zonal east to west Sunday into next week
as the upper level ridge aloft flattens some and moves east and
becomes centered across the southern plains. Really no distinct
waves expected to cross the area within the flow aloft, but
several very weak impulses are noted. Have included a slight
chance pop as these impulses cross, but timing will be an issue
and pops will likely be adjusted in later forecasts.

As far as temperatures, they will continue to warm, with highs
expected in the 90s for the first through middle of next week. The
ridge does not build as far northward as the last hot spell, and
not expecting triple digit heat at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

A few isolated showers currently exist across portions of central
NE. Elsewhere, isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms are
present across the NE Panhandle.

Chances for additional thunderstorms over the forecast area have
largely diminished. However, there is enough uncertainty such
that a isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out...either
developing or moving into western NE. Confidence is low. Some
patchy fog may develop overnight in climo prone areas as winds
become light.

Increased chances for thunderstorms tomorrow. Best chances across
the southwest half of the forecast area, where strong to severe
thunderstorms possible. Mentioned TSTMs in the KLBF TAF, however,
no mention for KVTN -- this is attributable to confidence and
uncertainty at this time.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...ET



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