Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 161124 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH INTO KS
THIS MORNING WITH COOLER AIR FILLING IN ACROSS WRN NEB. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTL WY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 800MB
UNDERCUTTING WARMER AIR ALOFT. THE FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING PERHAPS
AS HIGH AS 750MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 25 MPH ACROSS NRN NEB AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH ND. CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY
WOULD BE ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW...ACROSS CNTL/NRN
SD WITH LESSER SPEEDS SOUTH INTO NRN NEB. THE NAM SHOWS A BELT OF
50 KT WINDS AT 700MB ACROSS SD JUXTAPOSED WITH A PV15 ANOMALY.
THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY.

AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO NRN NEBRASKA. THE NAM AND
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT TOWARD MORNING BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE VERY MODEST MOISTURE POOL AVAILABLE FOR CLOUD
FORMATION. SFC WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN MIXED HOLDING LOWS
IN THE 40S WITH 30S AND LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

EVEN THOUGH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PLAINS AND NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS STILL ABLE TO REBOUND CLOSE TO IF NOT ABOVE
NORMAL /LOWER TO MID 60S. ALSO GOING TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY BETWEEN
BUILDING HIGH AND DEPARTING TROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN HIGH REMAINS ACROSS CANADA PLAINS...HOWEVER
A SECONDARY CENTER DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
PRODUCE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 30S. TOWARDS MORNING THE SECONDARY HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST
WITH LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS MAY KEEP STALL
TEMPS OR EVEN WARM ACROSS THE WEST SO FORECAST HAS LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...AND BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW...WHICH MAY BE
TOO WARM.

OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH WAA EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW TO NE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
SATURDAY HIGHS IN SW NEB TO PUSH CLOSE TO 70...WHILE STILL NEAR 60
ACROSS N CENTRAL. BY SUNDAY MOST AREAS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.
NW FLOW WILL BRING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. CONTINUED DRY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
70S. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS AS MINIMUM RH VALUES
LIKELY IN THE 20S...POSSIBLY LOWER.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF THE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AROUND MID WEEK. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AND
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED...HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WITH THE TROUGH...HOWEVER TIMING IS AN ISSUE. WILL INTRODUCE LOW
POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GROWING
CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL AT SOME POINT DURING MID TO LATE WEEK.
PACIFIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS MAY MOVE INTO NRN NEB...ALONG OR NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.
THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED
ACROSS CNTL CANADA THIS MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC





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