Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 181754
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

A ridge of surface high pressure currently extends from the western
Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Skies are mostly clear across
western Nebraska. This has allowed temperatures to cool into the
upper 30s and lower 40s mot locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Today...A positively tilted upper trough will move across the Four
Corners region today. This will have minimal effect on weather
conditions across western Nebraska. Skies will remain mostly sunny
this morning, with cumulus cloud development late morning through
the afternoon. This will bring a partly cloudy skies to the
southern half of the forecast area this afternoon. Better mixing
today will mix down H85 temperatures of 12 celsius west and 10
celsius east for highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Forecast highs
calculated using a met and mav guidance blend.

Tonight...As the southwestern trough approaches the Southern Plains
tonight, an increase in cloudiness late tonight across the southern
forecast area. A south wind near 10 mph overnight will promote
mixing and keep lows up in the mid 40s most areas, which is milder
that the past several nights. The next upper trough upstream will
move into the Pacific Northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Surface high pressure across the northern plains will keep central
Nebraska dry through the end of the week. The main concern for
Thursday will be the potential for some stronger wind gusts (up to
35 mph) in the afternoon. Otherwise, a strong upper level ridge will
build across the central United States on Friday and Saturday,
helping to strengthen the surface high and allow warm air advection
into the region. Temperatures will slowly rise from the upper 60s on
Thursday into the low 70s by Friday. Temperatures will continue to
rise and will easily reach up into the mid-70s on Saturday and the
low 80s for Sunday. These warmer temperatures combined with a quick
moving short-wave trough will bring the next chance of some rain and
thunderstorms to the area late Sunday and into Monday. At this time,
only feel confident enough to put in chance pops into the forecast.
Model guidance shows an active pattern for the beginning of next
week as a series of weak low pressure systems push out of the
Colorado region and track across the high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

A scattered to broken deck of cumulus clouds at 7000FT AGL will go
away this evening with the loss of daytime heating. mainly clear
skies will prevail after that. winds will be south at 10 KTS
through tonight and increase 15 to 25 KTS Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Along the North Platte river up and downstream of Lake McConaughy,
minor to moderate flooding will continue. This is due to reservoir
releases. This week and through the weekend, river levels will
remain above moderate flood stage near 8.7 feet at Lewellen, while
river levels will remain slightly above minor flood stage at Lisco.
River levels along the North Platte river near North Platte are
currently just above minor flood stage, but are forecast to reach
near moderate flood stage by Saturday.

Along the South Platte river, the river level will remain near or
slightly above action stage, or three-quarters bankfull, then rise
slightly into this weekend.

River levels along the main stem Platte river will remain elevated
for at least the next few weeks.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Taylor
HYDROLOGY...Roberg



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