Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 061811
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
111 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

REMNANTS OF ARTHUR STILL SPINNING AROUND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WEAK TROUGHING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS PLACING NORTHERN PLAINS IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK
COOL FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTH
DAKOTA. LOCAL ASOS OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT REACHING CLOUD
BASES...WHICH CORROBORATES WITH LAPS SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE THE
CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 15K FEET. THE MORE WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOES
ARE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...YET HAVEN/T SEEN ANY OBSERVED RAINFALL SO
THINKING JUST SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND
AND ADDED SPRINKLES INTO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FURTHER CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST...PERHAPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHERN FRONTIER
COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT HAS STALLED...THINK CONVECTION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY
TODAY AND WITH THE FRONT HAVING MOVED THROUGH PROBABLY WON/T SEE A
LOT OF ADDITIONAL HEATING. UP TO 5 DEGREES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THOUGH WHICH WOULD BE VERY NEAR THE FORECAST HIGHS SO HAVEN/T MADE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY BUT DIFFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. WILL USE A BLEND BUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE NAM SOLUTION.
COOL FRONT WIND SHIFT LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. NOT A VERY VIGOROUS FRONT. NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 5F COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD. FRONT STALLS
OUT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. NAM SOLUTION KEEPS FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS OVER NIGHT WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION TRIES TO
LIFT THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. NAM PUSHES THE FRONT OUT OF
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HAVE LEFT TRW OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WITH LATER
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH
TO THE UPPER 90S EXTREME SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

CYCLOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY IS LIKELY TO PULL A SURFACE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA MONDAY. A CROSS-SECTION OF THE
AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION SHOWS SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
WITH FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT LATE MONDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THE AIR BEING LIFTED OVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE UNSTABLE AND BECOMING SATURATED AT OR BELOW 700MB. WITH
CONVECTIVE ENERGY IN A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL AT OR ABOVE 2500J/KG AND
DEEP BULK SHEAR 40-50KT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE...THEY
WILL MODERATE FROM THE RECENT HEAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGS A RETURN OF
THE WARM AIR. WITH THE TROUGH ON THE HIGH PLAINS...THE THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ONE
AREA OR ANOTHER NEARLY EVERY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS OUT OF MONTANA. DON/T HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
AREAS THAT WILL GET MOISTURE AS FORECAST MODELS DON/T HAVE A HIGH
LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT STILL. HOWEVER...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION LOOKING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING HOURS DID ADD IN A PREVAILING VCTS AT KVTN WHERE THERE IS
A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PASSAGE OF RAINFALL WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BROOKS







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