Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 150845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
345 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

A weak cold front will make it`s way across western and north
central Nebraska this morning. Winds will shift to the north behind
the front, and have lowered highs a couple of degrees due to some
weak cold air advection in the wake of the front. Still very mild
though, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. The
warmest readings will be across southwest Nebraska.

The front will essentially wash out tonight in Kansas, with
southerly return flow developing. South winds will actually increase
some after midnight, especially across north central Nebraska, as a
southerly low level jet mixes to near the surface. Mild tonight with
lows in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

A quiet end to the weekend and beginning of the week is in store for
central Nebraska. Weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure
remain over the central US keeping dry conditions and warming
temperatures for Sunday and Monday. High temperatures Sunday will
top out in the low to mid 80s, with Monday highs slightly cooler
(upper 70s to low 80s), but still well above average.

A upper level trough begins to dig into the central US on Tuesday,
bringing an end to the dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Cooler conditions will return as a cooler airmass begins to filter
into the northern Plains. Highs Tuesday will be noticeably cooler as
temperatures will only reach into the mid 60s. The next chance of
precipitation also arrives on Tuesday night. Temperatures will
remain warm enough Tuesday night to keep all precipitation as rain.

Rain showers continue through Wednesday as the trough continues to
dig southward across Nebraska. Cooler air will continue to move into
the region on Wednesday, resulting in high temperatures to only be
in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chilly temperatures and precipitation
chances continue into Wednesday night. While most locations will see
all rain, the northwestern portions of the forecast area could see
some rain/snow mix as temperatures drop into the low 30s overnight.
No accumulations are expected at this time.

Precipitation chances for Thursday shift towards the southern
portions of the state. Best chances for precipitation will remain
south of a Oshkosh to Broken Bow line. By Thursday evening, all
precipitation chances will have moved south of the forecast area.
Cooler and dry conditions return for the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Broken high cirrus clouds can be expected through tonight into
Saturday as upper level Pacific moisture streams east across the
region. Otherwise a weak cold front will switch winds to the
northwest for Saturday. Expect VFR all areas.


Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Above normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s on Sunday
afternoon combined with westerly winds, will usher in dry air from
the west into the western Sandhills. As relative humidities Sunday
afternoon fall into the 15 to 20 percent range, conditions will
become favorable for rapid fire growth. A fire weather watch has
been issued for zone 204 with the greatest concern for fire danger
across the northern portion for this zone where wind gusts will be
slightly higher on Friday afternoon.


Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for NEZ204.



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