Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 202110
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
310 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

OVERNIGHT...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST WITH SOME
GENERAL CLEARING ANTICIPATED.  WEAK CAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST AND EAST WHERE SOME CLOUDS MAY HINDER THE
COOLING...STILL LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THE GREATEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA HOWEVER REVEAL SATURATION EXTENDING UP INTO THE DGZ
WHILE WEAK OMEGA IS PRESENT.  THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW
HOWEVER...SO IF SNOW SHOWERS ARE TO FORM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...THE EXPECTED COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH
FLURRIES AT MOST.   THE SHORTWAVE WILL USHER AN ADDITIONAL TAP OF
COLD AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...H85 TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO
COOL SOME 5-7C FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HIGHS SHOULD RUN
SOME 10F COOLER.  CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR OUR SOUTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A FEW
FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS NERN AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDER IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES BRING NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS. FAVORED THE WARMEST MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR UPPER 30S TO NEAR 45
THURSDAY AND LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY.


SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. RETAINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NCTRL NEBR OVERNIGHT AND
INTO NERN COUNTIES SUNDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARE
LOW...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY GIVEN
H85 WINDS AS HIGH AS 50-55KTS. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIODS REMAIN
DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HEIGHT RISES EXTEND
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO RANGE IN THE
40S...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INITIALLY ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS...BUT THEN
POSSIBLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWN TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS CAN DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KLBF...SO FOR NOW WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC AND
ONLY CARRY A SCT030 DECK AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH HOWEVER TO CARRY A BKN020 CEILING AT KVTN
AFTER 08Z...IN FACT CEILINGS MAY BE LOWER. OTHERWISE THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND TODAY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LESS THAN
15KTS EARLY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS







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