Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLBF 121746
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

STRONG HIGH HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW FROM
THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE EAST COAST. PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAK RIDGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MORNING TEMPS ON THE RISE SO ALLOWED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE TO
EXPIRE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. NO CHANGE TO THE FROST HEADLINE FOR
THE SOUTHEAST CWA TONIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH
WARMING TEMPS ACROSS N CENTRAL...AS SKIES ARE CLEARING THERE TO
PRODUCE STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY FORM
AND EVEN COULD SEEM SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. NAM AND
THE HRRR SUPPORT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING SOME POCKETS OF
QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR THE FORECAST. MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE WITH
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FROST IN THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND THEN FROST IN
THE FORECAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO OSHKOSH THIS MORNING.
MOST AREAS REPORTING RAIN THIS MORNING BUT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
SIDNEY REPORTING SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.
CEILINGS LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND SOME CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. CLEARING LINE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH KVTN MID MORNING. 1037MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER KCDR THIS MORNING WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -1C.
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST IN THE MID 30S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY AND FROST
ADVISORY INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION ENDING AROUND NOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
SURFACE WINDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE SOUTH UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM
NORTH PLATTE TO BROKEN BOW FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY
FROST ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY FROM NORTH PLATTE INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS LOOK TO STAY IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO FAIR TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL MODERATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD /WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY/. AT THIS
TIME RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN OVER THE PLAINS AS A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH PUSHES ONTO THE WEST COAST.

BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...WITH THE AXIS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
WISCONSIN. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE 10 TO 13 DEGREES IN THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY. THAT BEING SAID...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY RANGE FROM 8C TO 16C AT THAT TIME...LEAVING TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER INFLUX OF COLDER AIR
COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT TIED TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS PUSHES ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
DECOUPLE AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECTING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS FALLING
TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. ON SUNDAY 60S AND LOW 70S ARE LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE AREAS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 70S AS PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED AND THE FRONT LAYS UP JUST NORTH OF THOSE AREAS TO KEEP THE
WARMER AIR IN PLACE. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS THE STATE SITS BETWEEN THE CONVERGENCE OF THE POLAR
AND TROPICAL JETS. THE POLAR JET MAY DIP SOUTH ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS IT WOULD BE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK ON SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THESE AREAS FOR SUNDAY.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM
WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE STRONGER AND WILL DIG FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS IMPULSE OF
ENERGY...HOWEVER AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST
ROUGHLY ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING MORE MOIST AIR INTO THIS AREA AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS
AND PRODUCE THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS WOULD INCLUDE
THE SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HEDGED TOWARDS THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS SO ADDED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS RAIN WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TO BRING MORE
DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A FEW PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN
AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS
IS NOT HIGH...BUT DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK DESPITE WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A SLOW MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHWEST
FLOW KEEPS COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BUT BY THURSDAY...850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE LOW 20S...SO LOOKING FOR A RETURN
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS AND 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
LIFTING TO WIDESPREAD VFR THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC TOWARDS SUNSET AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LOCALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW MORNING SKIES CONTINUE TO BE SKC WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS ONCE THE BL BEGINS TO
MIX.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ028-029-
038-059-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.