Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 191715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1115 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Issued at 323 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

At 09z...Surface low pressure extended from central Montana through
eastern Wyoming, and eastern Colorado. A modest return of Gulf
moisture has lifted from Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.
Dewpoints are currently in the lower 40s across parts of south
central Nebraska. Skies remain mostly cloudy across western Nebraska
with temperatures mild for this time of night from the upper 30s to
mid 40s in some areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Today...An upper level trough will lift from the Desert Southwest
across the Four Corners Region as the downstream upper ridge axis
advances across the Mississippi Valley.  Mild 850mb temperatures to
around 15C with a prevailing south wind will aid in mixing down
these temperatures to the surface. Highs were raised a few degrees
to near 70 degrees for most locations. This appears likely despite
some areas remaining partly to mostly cloudy throughout the day.

Tonight...The upper trough axis will lift into western Nebraska.
This will bring a slight chance for showers to the western Sandhills
overnight. With instability increasing across southwest Nebraska by
03Z, a slight chance for showers and isolated thunder included near
and south of I80 during the late evening. Then, as instability lifts
northeast after midnight, a slight chance for showers and isolated
thunder to continue for areas east of North Platte through Bassett.
If any activity does occur across the southwest into eastern areas,
coverage will be quite isolated and QPFs mainly a trace. A Pacific
front will move through the western half of the forecast area
overnight, with an unusually mild night to occur. Lows only near 50
across the east, and upper 30s west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Monday through Wednesday...temperatures will continue to remain
above normal with Tuesday being the warmest day. Highs on Tuesday
will be near 30 degrees above normal as 850 temps will be in the low
to mid teens allowing temperatures to reach the 70s.

Thursday through Saturday night...temperatures turn colder for
Thursday with highs near to below normal. The main forecast concern
for this period is the chance for a strong system to impact the
region. Thursday night into Friday the forecast area is located in
favorable area for large scale ascent as we have a coupled jet with
one jet streak located over the Great Lakes region...putting the
forecast area into the the right entrance region of the jet...then
there is also a jet streak located just to the south of our forecast
area putting us in the left exit region of the jet. This coincides
with the greatest potential for precipitation.

There are still discrepancies with the models leading to
uncertainties with the forecast for Thursday through Sat. night. Some
models including the GFS tend to keep the track of the system
farther south and keeping the system in more of an open wave. The
ECMWF tends to be more robust forming a closed low and deepening the
surface low to around 982 mb. Will continue to monitor the track of
the system as precipitation start/end time and amounts may need to
be adjusted depending on the track.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Abundant high level cloudiness will stream into western and north
central Nebraska over the next 18 hours with clearing expected
there after. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 20 KTS,
shifting to the west, then northwest Monday morning. Some gusts up
to 20 KTS are possible Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible tonight across the eastern Nebraska panhandle and
northwestern Sandhills. At this time coverage and expected
location of storms is such, that they will not be included in the
18z TAF forecasts for KLBF and KVTN.




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