Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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683
FXUS63 KLBF 020925
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

AN INTENSE CLOSED LOW ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN KS THIS MORNING.
A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND SNOW PIVOTED ON THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL
INTENSITIES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH. SO FAR AT NORTH
PLATTE...WE HAVE RECEIVED 0.3 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT.
THAT...ADDED TO THE 7.3 INCHES WHICH FELL YESTERDAY...LEADS TO 7.6
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENT AS OF 2 AM CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOR THE MOST PART...THE ONGOING WINTER STORM
IS BEHAVING AS FORECAST. WE HAD A BRIEF MODERATE BAND OF SNOW
EARLIER THIS EVENING WHICH HAS MOVED INTO THE SANDHILLS...WHERE IT
ENCOUNTERED SOME DRIER AIR AND QUICKLY WEAKENED. OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A SECONDARY BAND OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SWRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY 3 AM CST. THIS BAND WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...AS WELL AS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SOLNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND OF SNOW TDY AND THIS BANDING SHOWS UP WELL ON THE 295K
ISENTROPIC SFCS...WHICH ARE INDICATIVE OF TROWAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH PWATS RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG DENDRITIC LIFT AND PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT TODAY ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA. FCST
QPFS THIS MORNING TOP OUT AROUND A HALF AN INCH IN THE FAR EASTERN
CWA WHICH EQUATES TO AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN A FCST RATIO OF
12 TO 1 PER THE LATEST COBB DATA. DECIDED TO GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE 12 TO 1 RATIO AND SETTLED FOR A 13 TO 1 RATIO WHICH FITS
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF MIDDLE 20S BETTER. THIS SNOW
RATIO...COMBINED WITH THE QPF FCST...YIELDS ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS
TDY OF 4 TO 10 INCHES ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL...TO
ONEILL. IN ADDITION TO SNOW...STRONG NORTHEASTERLY...FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. H925 WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 KTS TDY WITH
H85 WINDS APPG 50 KTS IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS...COUPLED WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW INTENSITIES...WILL PRODUCE
SOME NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING HRS
IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE H925 WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT
RANGE. FURTHER WEST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING...AS WILL THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW. FOR
TONIGHT...SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH
LITTLE OR NOW ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST...THEN CENTRAL
BY LATE EVENING AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA...WHERE 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES TODAY...FEEL CONFIDENT WHAT WE HAVE
ONGOING SHOULD TAKE CARE OF THINGS ATTM. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS
GRANT...HOOKER AND TOMS COUNTIES AS WE MAY NEED TO ADD THEM TO THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IF SNOW ACCUMS BEGIN TO APPROACH THE 6 INCH
MARK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS GOING
IN THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING INTENSE CYCLONE
WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE FULL EXTENT OF THE COOL TEMPERATURES IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AS WE/VE YET TO GATHER SUFFICIENT SNOW REPORTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NEB. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT
AREAS FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
INTO HOLT COUNTY ARE/OR HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
GENERALLY TRENDED THE INHERITED MEDIUM RANGE PERIODS DOWNWARD A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S AT BEST...WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEENS FOR
LOWS. INTO THE WEEKEND LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA FROM THE WEST WILL
PROMOTE A SLIGHT WARM UP. H85 TEMPS ARE SHOWN TO CLIMB ABOVE
0C...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW 40S FAHRENHEIT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT MAINLY
IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE
MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF SUNDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A
BROAD WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. MOISTURE IS IN
QUESTION FOR MEASURABLE QPF...BUT AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL
SETTLES SOUTH...LAPSE RATES MAY BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE CR_INT BLEND DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT
TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH
LINGERING FLURRIES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ010-022-026>028-035>037-056>059-069-070.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>009-023>025-094.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ029-038-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER



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