Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 301806

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
106 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low
over central Kansas with a trough extending south into northern
Mexico. Downstream of this feature, low amplitude ridging extended
from northern Georgia into the LP of Michigan. West of the closed
low, A ridge of high pressure extended from Utah into Wyoming. West
of this ridge, a trough of low pressure was present off the coast of
Washington and Oregon. At the surface, low pressure was present over
eastern Kansas. A warm front extended east of the low with a cold
front extending south of this low into eastern Texas. Across western
and north central Nebraska, light northerly and northeasterly winds
were present from the panhandle east while in the eastern panhandle,
winds were light from the west. Low clouds had developed overnight
and were impacting most of the forecast area with the exception of
the southeastern Nebraska panhandle. Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT
were in the mid to upper 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Today and tonight: Over the next 24 hours, temperatures today
followed by the threat for light precipitation in the west are the
main forecasting concerns. For today: Looking at the latest
NAM12, the bulk of the forecast area will hold onto an easterly
component to the wind through mid afternoon. This easterly wind
will make it more difficult to erode the deck of stratus today.
That being said, decided to scale back highs, particularly in the
eastern half of the forecast area where this a higher threat for
overcast conditions persisting through this afternoon. For
tonight, an upper level trough of low pressure will track across
Nevada, closing off over the four corners by 12z Friday. A lead
disturbance will lift northeast from northern Colorado into the
Nebraska panhandle and western sandhills overnight tonight. With
the approach of the mid level system and increased mid level warm
air advection, the threat for showers will increase in the far
western forecast area overnight tonight. Temperatures will bottom
out in the mid to upper 30s tonight, so will leave p-type as all
rain for now. In addition, the SREF is indicating a threat for
patchy fog development overnight in north central Nebraska. This
fog threat has some limited support from the MET and MAV guidance.
Will pass this onto the day shift and leave out a mention of fog
for now, as forecaster confidence in the models is not real strong

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Main concerns this forecast period continues to be the active
pattern brining precipitation chances through the next 7 days.
Chance of rain Friday into Saturday as an upper level closed low
pushes out across the four corners region and into the plains. There
is a possibility of a rain/snow mix across the western part of
the forecast area late Friday night into early Saturday morning as
low temperatures will hover near freezing. The rain will push out
of the area by late Saturday us a couple of dry
days for Sunday and Monday.

A deeper upper level low will push out of the Northwest U.S. and
move into the plains on Tuesday. After collaboration with
surrounding offices the consensus was that some of the models may be
underestimating the strength of the winds and decided to go with
a more robust model bringing in stronger northwest winds for
Tuesday night into Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows stratus still in place across the
eastern two-thirds of NEB with the western edge of the stratus
along a line roughly from Hayes Center to Sutherland to Eli.
High clouds are present elsewhere across western NEB and upstream
in the NEB panhandle. Ceilings are MVFR-IFR. Visibilities are
unrestricted with patchy fog having dissipated/lifted mid-late
morning. Aviation concerns the next 24 hours include flight
categories and precipitation chances.

Ceilings are expected to improve gradually this afternoon across
the aforementioned edge of stratus and eastward towards Highway
83. Elsewhere, current thinking is ceilings will likely not
improve across much of north central NEB with ceilings staying
sub-VFR. Ceilings will then deteriorate/stratus will work back
westward gradually this evening encompassing much of western NE
near midnight. Current thinking is after midnight there will be
increased chances for showers over mainly the eastern NEB
Panhandle. Generally MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to
prevail tomorrow morning.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...ET is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.