Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 222353 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
653 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  DIGGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
LIFTING ACROSS THE STATE. CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING TEMPS COOL FOR THE
LATTER PART OF MAY...WITH MOST SITES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHERN NEB...WHERE THE RAIN IS JUST MOVING
INTO. THERE SOME SUN ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM CLOSE TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA AND IMPACT
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE BAND OF RAIN...LIGHT TO MODERATE...WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A POCKET
OF CLEARING AND A WEAK CAP HAS ALLOWED SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT TAKING THE STORMS AND CONTINUING THE ACTIVITY AS IT
MOVES IN THE SW FLOW. THE STORMS WILL HAVE TO BECOME ELEVATED TO
SURVIVE AND MODELS KEEP SOME NEG LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND SOME WEAK
MUCAPE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
NOT LOOKING AT SEVERE AS ROTATION IS WEAK...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MEANWHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED AND NEAR TERM MODELS ARE
FAVORING FOG AND DRIZZLE. THUS A COMPLEX FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON TOP OF THE
FOG/DRIZZLE. TYPICALLY AS THE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THE FOG
MAY LIFT SOME. AS FOR TEMPS...THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW PTS WILL LIMIT
COOLING AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

TOMORROW THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL LIFT TO THE 4 CORNERS BY MID
DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND WILL NEED A CHANCE FOR STORMS. SOME WARMER AIR WILL
ADVECT NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MAV
GUIDANCE. IF THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD SEE A BRIEF BUMP OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS
BY MONDAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST A PRONOUNCED H700MB WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR DEFINITE TSTM COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 WITH
CHANCE/LIKELY COVERAGE EAST OF 61. THE FORECAST STRATEGY IN TERMS OF
POPS AND QPF FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE NAM...GEM...GFS...ARW AND NMM.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT BUT A SECOND
WEAKER LOBE OF H700MB FORCING LIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY. LIKELY POPS
ARE IN PLACE SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE POPS ARE CHANCE OR SLIGHT
CHANCE GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. COLD AIR ALOFT MONDAY MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. K INDICES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY ARE WELL INTO THE 30S SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

TOTAL QPF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WOULD BE 1/3 TO 1 INCH WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH LOWEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL 2
INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

SPC SUGGESTS SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB SATURDAY
AFTN AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN. A
WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA NEAR DURING THE DAY
AND LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME SOLNS KEEP THE
LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLO UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...A PACIFIC
FRONT SHOULD SWEEP INTO WRN NEB SUNDAY AFTN TRIGGERING MORE RAIN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS BLENDED MODEL DATA FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NAM WAS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH HIGHS
NEAR 80 SUNDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING SUNDAY
AND TIME BEFORE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
HIGHS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS THAT ANOTHER DEEP TROF OR UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES PRODUCING TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY. THE GEF ACTUALLY INDICATES A LIKELY CHANCE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE OPERATING ON A COLD
FRONT FROM A LATE SEASON BATCH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ARCTIC.

THE GFS SHOWS PWAT WELL OVER 1 INCH EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS THE FRONT
DROPS INTO WRN NEB. K INDICES IN THE ECM AND GFS RISE TO 35C TO 45C
SUPPORTING HEAVY TSTMS. THE FORECAST HOLD POPS AT THE CHANCE
CATEGORY PENDING CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY REACH 80F WEDNESDAY IN A FEW AREAS. A
MOISTURE LADEN WARM RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY SUGGESTING THURSDAY COULD BE MILD ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE RIVER AS THE RAIN
HAS BEEN STEADY BUT LIGHT. THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MOST
OF IT. HOWEVER STILL SEEING ANOTHER PULSE MOVING DOWN THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER AND WHILE THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY HOLDING STEADY TO
LOWERING...ANOTHER RISE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS AN
HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW PACK IN THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK
IN COLORADO WHICH WILL LIKELY PROLONG THE ELEVATED FLOW INTO JUNE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK






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