Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 291728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Today...A potent spring storm will bring another round for rain and
snow to at least the southeastern half of the forecast area through
tonight. A closed upper low near the Four Corner Region early this
morning will track into central New Mexico by 18z, and into the west
panhandle of Texas by early evening. The upper low and trough will
have a neutral tilt. Persistent isentropic upglide will provide
increasing rain chances across the southeastern zones this afternoon
with likely or higher pops south of an imperial through North PLatte
and Broken Bow line. Highs will contrast from the upper 40s to
around 50 north central to the low to mid 40s south. Northeast winds
will also increase to 15 to 25 mph today.

Tonight...The upper low will eject northeast onto the region. The
upper low center will track to near Dodge City Kansas by 12z Sunday.
A well defined deformation zone will develop to the north and
northwest of the upper low across southern and southwest Nebraska
into western Kansas. 850mb temperatures cool to -2c or slightly
colder overnight east of an Imperial thorugh Ainsworth line, which
also lines up with where the higher qpfs of a tenth to quarter inch,
even upward of four tenths of an inch. Precipitation type mainly
all rain early evening, forecast to transition to rain/snow mix to
mainly all snow late tonight. Little or no pops west of Oshkosh
through Valentine overnight, contrasting to pops increasing to
near 80 percent across the southeastern zones. Lows will be in the
upper 20s to lower 30s, with frost expected. Several counties
were added to a winter storm watch 06z tonight through Sunday, and
Sunday night for the southeastern few tiers of counties. Frontier
county was upgraded to a winter storm warning. Snowfall amounts
tonight may range to around an inch from portions of southwest
into central Nebraska, with most accumulations occurring after
midnight. Winds turn north and continue at 15 to 25 mph across the
southeastern zones. Lows will hold in the low to mid 30s where
precipitation occurs, while the northwest falls into the upper

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Low pressure continues to track northeastward just south of the
forecast area on Sunday. The main concern for Sunday will the the
precipitation type as the day progresses. For now, precipitation is
expected to start off as all snow and will slowly transition to
rain. The transition will move from the northwest to southeast with
locations along Frontier and Custer county likely remaining most of
the day in snow or a rain/snow mix. As a result, these locations
will also see the highest snow amounts with the possibility of up to
7 inches. For locations along a line from Hayes Center to North
Platte to O`Neill, snow accumulations between 3 to 5 inches are
possible. With warmer air moving into the region during the day,
snow will be wet and heavy in consistency and could cause
significant travel impacts on untreated roadways. As temperatures
continue to rise, snow will melt easily across the northern fringe
of the system where less snow is forecasted and temperatures in
the low 40s are expected.

The main snow concern will then shift to the northeast forecast area
(east of a Broken Bow to Spencer line) on Sunday night as the low
tracks northeastward. Snow accumulations in these locations will be
around 2 inches. Temperatures will drop into the low 30s on Sunday
night. Any snow that did not melt or excess water on roadways will
have the potential to refreeze on untreated and secondary
roadways resulting in travel concerns once again across the region.

The low will be well east of the region by Monday morning, allowing
dry conditions to return through Monday night. After a weekend of
temperatures on the chilly side, warmer temperatures begin to move
into the area. Highs return to the upper 50s on Monday.

Rain chances return on Tuesday and Wednesday as several shortwaves
move across the region. With temperatures well above freezing,
precipitation is expected to remain as all rain. Temperatures both
Tuesday and Wednesday rise into the upper 50s and low 60s. A strong
ridge building across the western US will bring an end to the wet
weather on Thursday and Friday, with highs rising into the upper 60s
on Thursday and low 70s on Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Some uncertainty exists in the overall evolution of the upcoming
storm system poised to impact the Sandhills region beginning
tonight. Current thinking is that convection well southeast of
the region will pull the upper low eastward moreso than what is
suggested by the model runs today, thus not too confident that
the KLBF terminal will fall under the heart of the eventual
frontogenetic band. But KBBW and KONL should eventually do so.
Another concern is that it will take the brunt of the system to
cool the column enough for a complete changeover to snow,
especially if the brunt of the precipitation occurs after sunrise
on Sunday /which is currently forecast/. Where the fgen band
develops, it will be dicey, especially given northerly wind gusts
in excess of 30kts forecast. Visibility will be an issue. Continue
to monitor and understand that short term updates will be
required across southwest Nebraska and eventually north central
Nebraska. For the central Sandhills and northwest Nebraska,
including KVTN, there will be a sharp cutoff with the
precipitation to the west, thus outside of the gusty winds and
possibly marginal mvfr ceilings, flight conditions should not be
impacted much.


Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night
for NEZ037-059-070.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for



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