Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 292045
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HOWEVER THE WINDS HAVE SHOWN A
DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF
LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES AS AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE CWA...ALBEIT MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE FROPA SEEN SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH NO NET MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT A SIMILAR DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE TOMORROW. MIXING UP TO 700MB WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S..AND DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN TODAY WITH 700MB WINDS ONLY AROUND 25 KTS. EVEN USING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD NOT GET STRONG ENOUGH WINDS
TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY REEVALUATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE HEAT BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ON THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE WARMS FROM AROUND 12 TO 20
DEGREES CELCIUS RESPECTIVELY FOR A WARM START TO THE WEEK. FEW
CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP FIRE RELATED CONCERNS GOING
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM THROUGH FASTER SO LOW POPS AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WHERE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEB WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TAKE A SHARP DIVE THAT WILL RESULT IN
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION THAT TRANSITIONS OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO COOL WHERE THE EASTERN EXTENT FOR SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD SHIFT FURTHER EAST GOING
FORWARD.

FRIDAY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH CLEARING AND HIGHS INTO THE 60S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...KECK









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