Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 030528
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHED EAST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM MOIST ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINING WITH SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KTS AND CAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TONIGHT
AND A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS HAVE EXPANDED ISOLATED CHANCES THROUGH THE SANDHILLS
AFTER 03/06Z. DYNAMICS ARE NOT GREAT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
CHANCES ALONG THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STALLED MID LEVEL FRONT. MOISTURE IS DECENT AND SHEAR IS
MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS SOME QPF THROUGH THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP...HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE SCT TO ISOLD WITH
BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL DOWN AND WENT WITH GUIDANCE.

TOMORROW COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE DAYS 2 AND 3 PERIOD INVOLVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SWD ADVANCING FRONT CURRENTLY WHICH
STALLS AND RETREATS SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN
INFLUENCED BY UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER JET AND
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALIES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA. AS THE JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...UPPER
FORCING WANES AND TRANSITIONS EWD AND SFC HIGH SLIDES SEWD.
MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT LEAD PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
CONTINUING ITS NEG TILT. AS THIS OCCURS SFC TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A RETURN TO STRONG SRLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WHICH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY NWD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
LEAD PV ANOMALY WILL ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUES THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL LOCATION. THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MAXIMIZE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT. SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS ONLY
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW INITIALLY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING SHOULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAN OF LATE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALONG THE PAC NW WILL
FLATTEN THE TRANSITORY CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE LEADING TO QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH QUICKER MOVING SUBTLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORT WAVES/ HELPING TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES...AND GENERALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN WILL TYPICALLY BE MODERATE AND GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY. ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT KVTN AND
KLBF. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH WINDS EXPECTED LESS THAN 10KTS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH VFR
CEILINGS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...POWER



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