Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230537 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1237 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The low level jet is farther west and the forcing is stronger than
the models suggest. A new forecast is in place using a blend of
the RAP...HRRR and the previous forecast. Plus...the forecast
shifts the rain area west above 20 miles to line up with the


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

The main story for tonight and Tuesday is the return of showers
and thunderstorms to portions of central Nebraska. The first shot at
some activity will be across the southern counties as the next low
pressure system builds off the Colorado Rockies. Storms will develop
mainly south of I-80 after 1am Tuesday clipping mainly Frontier,
Hayes, and southern Lincoln counties. Chances for rain will only be
around 30 percent, however, if storms do develop they will move
slowly northeastward through the remainder of the night. Severe
potential tonight will be low. Low temperatures range from the low
60s across the western counties to the upper 60s across the eastern

As this low pressure system becomes more developed by Tuesday
morning and moves over eastern Nebraska, the western fringes will
continue to impact the eastern portions of our forecast area
throughout the day. For now, the best chance for severe storms will
be east of our CWA, however, an isolated strong storm could develop
east of a Springview to Oconto line. Main threat with any storms
tomorrow will be gusty winds and large hail. Areas to the west of
this line are expected to be rain free, however, increased cloud
cover from the storms to the east is expected. Temperatures for
Tuesday will range from the low 80s across the northwest (Sheridan
and western Cherry counties) up to the low 90s east of a Valentine
to Imperial line.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Models are in good agreement with the timing of the cold front,
and has it extending from roughly O`Neill through Broken Bow and
Stockville early Tuesday evening. Shear and instability will be
supportive of a few strong storms ahead of the front. Will carry
a slight chance east of a North Platte through Ainsworth line with
a 30 percent chance near and east of Burwell through O`Neill. A
slight chance to continue across far southeastern and southern
zones late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

A cooler canadian airmass will remain in place behind the front
on Wednesday and Thursday with partly to mostly cloudy skies
through the periods. Highs Wednesday near 80 southeast to the
mid/upper 70s northwest, then mid and upper 70s Thursday.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive Thursday night and
persist into Saturday. This will occur as the surface front lifts
back north and an upper trough tracks from Montana and Wyoming
into the Northern Plains. Timing for best chances are from Friday
afternoon through Friday night, when higher 30-50 pops are

Conditions will turn warmer for the weekend into early next week as
ridging aloft builds northward across the region. Mid and upper
level subtropical monsoonal moisture will be present, with a
chance for a isolated showers or thunder.

Highs Saturday forecast to be right near normal near 83, warming
into the upper 80s by Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Isolated thunderstorms will drift across far southwestern Nebraska
overnight and are expected to remain south and southeast of the
KLBF terminal. Broken CIGS of 20000 FT AGL are expected
overnight. In addition, low level wind shear will be possible
overnight with 40+ kt winds possible 1500 FT AGL. For Tuesday,
skies will be mainly clear with a wind shift expected from the
south to the north by mid afternoon. For the KVTN terminal, expect
dry conds overnight with scattered clouds around 20000 FT AGL. Low
level wind shear will be possible overnight with 40+ KT winds
around 1500 FT AGL. Winds will be gusty on Tuesday with gusts of
20 to 25 KTS during the afternoon hours. A wind shift is expected
by early afternoon from south to north.


Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Fire weather concerns return for Tuesday, However, confidence is
low once again in reaching fire weather criteria. The zone of
concern will be mainly across 204 again. A frontal system is
expected to drop southward across the forecast area Tuesday
afternoon, bringing a drop in RH values and a shift in wind
direction. RH values are expected to drop into the upper teens
behind this front and winds are expected to gust up to 25 mph
along this front. Increased winds will be short lived as this
front quickly tracks southeast. Any slight deviation in moisture
or winds will significantly impact the fire weather forecast and
therefore will need to be accessed again before the next forecast
issuance Tuesday morning.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Kulik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.