Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 192336
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
636 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Weak high pressure and rising mid level heights will keep
conditions dry through mid week. MOS has a better handle on temps
and dew points than blend guidance. Will use that. Little in the
way of cloud cover. Persistence in sfc/blayer conditions means
some fog possible again tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Fairly high confidence until this weekend.

Models are fairly consistent with keeping the surface high pressure
over us through the week in addition to ridging aloft. This weekend
the GFS and ECMWF start to diverge a little then disagree a great
deal by Monday. The ECMWF and Canadian keep us mainly dry through
the weekend while the GFS is allowing for at least some diurnal
chances of storms starting Saturday and Sunday. Finally by Monday
the GFS brings the surface front over us as it lets the surface high
drift to the east. Although the ECMWF and Canadian have very
different solutions...they both keep us dry through the weekend into
Monday. The GFS keeps qpf very limited through the extended...that
is until Monday when it brings the front into us. So will lean
toward a drier solution but will see what the extended init and
collaboration yields. Other than Monday most if not all mentionable
POPs will be north and west of the Ohio River.

As for temperatures...plan to keep the much warmer solution
going...well above normal. We will have to monitor next week closely
for the next frontal passage because that will our next best chance
to cool temps closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Surface high pressure will persist through the period. Winds will
be light, and skies clear. The only concern is fog development
tonight. KCGI maintained better moisture through this afternoon`s
mixing, and that should result in the lowest visibilities. Will
only go with IFR prevailing, but will have BCFG to account for
lower fluctuations. KPAH will likely see at least MVFR levels, but
not sure if there will be lower conditions. Elsewhere fog is not
expected.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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