Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 010518
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LARGE AREA OF SMOKE ESTIMATED TO BE 10-15K/FT THICK ACROSS THE
REGION SLOWING CU DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS STILL CLIMBING SO NOT ENOUGH
TO AFFECT THAT ELEMENT. CU SEEN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT IN WEST
KY. COULD BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HERE. MEANWHILE ENERGY MOVING
SE MAY BRING CONVECTION AS WELL TO THE KEVV TRI-STATE REGION LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH LOWER POPS WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLIM
POPS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM SW IL INTO SEMO. STILL HAVE A
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC FOR OUR NE COUNTIES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECENT FOR LATE JUNE. QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY AS
BEST CAPES ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST KY AND TO OUR NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FAA
(FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH) PRODUCT. MODELS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY
PIN POINTING MCS DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION AND WHERE BEST QPF AXIS
WILL ACTUALLY END UP. SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A WATCH AT
THIS TIME. THAT...AND WE THINK PROBLEMS WOULD REALLY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WE CAN STILL ACHIEVE SOME LEAD
TIME IF WE NEED ONE. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE GIVEN
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...SUPPRESSED CAPE/INSTABILITY GIVEN PERIODIC
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. CHANCE IS NOT ZERO...BUT NOT TOO HIGH. BEST
POPS WILL TRANSLATE SE THUR/THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS VERY GOOD DURING THE LONG TERM. THE 500 MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TICK IN PRECIP
COVERAGE AND AN UPWARD TICK IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE SMALL
CHANGES WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THE IMPORTANT FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AND PROBABLY SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR STORMS. IN ADDITION...THE
NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER MEAGER WITH THE CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG.

ON THE FOURTH OF JULY...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN RESIDENCE OVER
OUR AREA. POPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND TOWARD
HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.
DESPITE THE RISING HEIGHTS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRUSH PAST OUR REGION.

TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB EVER SO SLOWLY DURING THE
PERIOD...FROM AROUND 80 FRIDAY TO THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SMOKE IN A LAYER BETWEEN 5K AND 20K FT WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT
SLANT VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH VFR
VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BY MIDDAY WED...AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION. THROUGH 06 THU...VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REDUCED DRAMATICALLY IN A WIDESPREAD FASHION IN SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...WINDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE AND BELOW
10 KTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DB


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