Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191939
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
239 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The persistent lower clouds from this morning have almost vanished,
with higher clouds now the rule, ahead of a compact vort moving
across SW MO. This feature will continue to result in mid to high
clouds through the night. Focus overnight, turns to mid level
energy diving SE from the Upper Midwest. As the resultant mid
level trof axis swings across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
regions late tonight through midday Monday, the respectable
forcing with it may be enough to develop isolated very light rain
showers or sprinkles late tonight through Monday morning. Will
keep PoPs at a minimum given the lack of depth in columnar
moisture at any given time with this system. Most areas may see
nothing at all. Basically no change from what we had before.

In the systems wake, high pressure will build in, with dry weather
the rule Monday afternoon right on through Tuesday night. We did
increase cloud cover a bit for Tuesday. We could be looking at
another round of decent strato-cu, given the cyclonic influence
with the upper low just off to our east, and moisture evident
around 925-900mb again with northerly flow. Temperatures will
continue to be a blend of MOS, previous numbers and base model
output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A tranquil weather pattern is expected to continue through much of
the week. An upper level ridge is forecast to build east into the
Mississippi Valley through Thursday as the core of surface high
pressure gradually shifts south from the Great Lakes. Models diverge
somewhat late in the week, as the GFS takes an approaching shortwave
trough north of the region, while the ECMWF continues to deflect the
feature to the south as it runs into the ridge overhead. However,
the end result is essentially the same--a prolonged period of dry
weather through next weekend.

A gradual moderating trend is forecast through the late week. Highs
will slowly warm from the lower 60s Wednesday back to near 70 by the
weekend. A gradual moderation of lows through the 40s is anticipated
as well. Guidance continues to suggest little concern for frost
during this time. However, Wednesday night will need to be closely
monitored with lows currently forecast near 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The lower strato-cu clouds finally faded, with mainly mid and high
clouds now the rule. This will continue to be the case through
tonight as a disturbance aloft moves east from SW MO. Meanwhile
late tonight into Monday morning, as an upper level system and
frontal boundary affect the region, cannot rule out isold light
showers or sprinkles. Not enough of a chance to put in any of the
TAFs given the lack of moisture. Light and variable to calm winds
through tonight will become SW 5-10 kts Monday morning. Cannot
rule out patchy fog mainly KCGI and KPAH. Don`t think it will be
to the degree it was this morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








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