Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 230933
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION.
PREDAWN TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO THE UPPER
TEENS SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO FALL OFF. STILL BELIEVE
WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILLS NEAR -10 EARLY TODAY OVER MOST OF THE
ADVISORY AREA...SO WILL LEAVE THAT HEADLINE AS BE FOR NOW. HIGHS
WILL PROBABLY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN FALL BACK OFF INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE
OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A LEAST A TEMPORARY WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE THE EAST TUE/WED. MAY EVEN SEE SOME 40S BY
WED. WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH...BUT THE TRUE COLD AIR WITH THIS NEXT COLD SURGE WILL
PROBABLY LAG BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROF AND NOT REACH MOST AREAS
UNTIL WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THU/THU NIGHT ON STEADY NRLY WINDS. BY DAYTIME FRI...THE CENTER OF A
1040 MB SFC HIGH WILL BE NEAR OUR REGION...YIELDING SINGLE DIGIT
DEWPOINTS AND MORNING LOWS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

STARTING FRI NIGHT...DETERMINISTIC MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGAN
TO DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND THE ONSET OF SSWRLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH EROSION OF THE HIGH AND ESTABLISHMENT OF DEEP
MOIST RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MEASURABLE PCPN MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED IN
OUR REGION UNTIL SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME OF THE MO OZARK
FOOTHILLS. THIS IS BASICALLY WHAT THE INITIALIZATION BLEND
PROVIDED...AND SEEMED PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN REAL STABLE IN THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SAT NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE FOCUS
FOR LIFT.

CURRENT MODEL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WERE DIFFERENT ENOUGH (ECMWF MUCH
WARMER THAN THE GFS) TO CALL IT RAIN AND SNOW FOR SAT NIGHT. TEMPS
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN BY SUN. IN
THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY THE
LOWER 50S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WITH WEAKENING SURFACE WIND GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
THE AREA BY 12Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>091.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-110-111.

IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ010-014-
     015-018>020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...SMITH


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