Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161957
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
257 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Some near term convection is modeled very nicely by the HRRR. It
suggest isolated/rogue storms along Mississippi river remain a
threat til sunset, but best activity/axis of will shift south near
Memphis. This is already occurring so it looks like a good
modeling to stick with.

After a brief pause, another MCS like system with its
showers/storms will be incoming tonight, and drop down across
SEMO. We`ll spike pops then late tonight-early tmrw, have a pause,
then regenerate the daily diurnal Pop again tmrw on the
boundary/outflow axes.

Best chance with primary front comes late Sat night-Sunday.
Previous shift picked up on best strong storm chance along primary
incoming late Sat night-early Sunday (marginal risk). Boundary
then kinda hangs, resulting in diurnal regeneration as main upper
trof energy sweeps in late in day...peaking Pops again Sunday late
pm-evening. Front makes passage Sunday night, finally ending Pops.
Might even see a 59F dew point sneak into the north by 12Z Monday!

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

High confidence in the dry and cooler early next week.
Afterwards...expect isolated storms mainly in the peak afternoon
heating as a warming trend ensues.

Models have been and continue to be in good agreement with the
extended. Monday morning a cold front will have moved south of the
region with high pressure building into the area in the fronts wake.
Isolated storm chances will return later in the week as we continue
to heat up a little more with each passing day after Monday. By
Friday another front approaches the area bringing greater chances
for storms as head into the weekend. The models start to diverge in
their solutions late in the week. The GFS is much faster with the
front bringing it through the region Friday into Saturday while
ECMWF moves it through much slower and keeps rain chances through
all of next weekend. This time of year it would not be surprising if
the slower solution comes to fruition.

Again we will start out with temperatures between 80 and 85 Monday
and warm to around or into the 90s by weeks end.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Will carry vicinity mention CB/Thunder for KCGI with eye upon PAH
moving into early evening, otherwise just expect scattered to
broken mid bases with a relative pause after heating/for first
part of night. Late night MCS will again increase/lower cloud
cover and be cause for potential pcpn/storm concern, mainly west
(KCGI/KPAH) but not enough to warrant mention as track is mainly
west of terminal. Diurnal bases again to begin in MVFR range and
rise to low VFR with potential for storms again in heating hours,
just beyond valid time of this issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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