Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 162015
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

The showers associated with a MCV moving eastward along I-64, have
taken their sweet time in raining out today. Coverage should
continue to dwindle through the late afternoon mainly across the
Evansville Tri State.

The main issue involves a compact mid/upper-level system over
northeast Missouri, that all 12Z guidance agrees will slowly push
southeast into our region late tonight and Sunday. The associated
surface low over northern Missouri this afternoon will shift
eastward just along or north of I-64 Sunday into Sunday evening.

The combination of low-level warm advection with a southwesterly
low-level jet of 25-30kts tonight, in addition to the forcing
associated with upper system, should result in considerable
coverage of convection late this evening and through the overnight
hours. The main issue is likely to be locally heavy rainfall with
some potential for training across southern Illinois and the
Evansville Tri State area.

With the surface low and ever increasing low-level moisture
expected in the area Sunday, figure that re-development is likely
over much of the area during the afternoon. Will hang onto likely
PoPs into Sunday evening as the surface low finally exits the
region. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern Sunday and
Sunday night.

Will keep chance PoPs across the area Monday and Tuesday, with
diurnal development likely, and the possibility of an upper-level
disturbance in the weak northwest flow aloft.

Daytime temperatures will be modulated by convection Sunday
through Tuesday. The impact of convection will likely be greatest
in the east Sunday. A warming trend is expected through Tuesday. Much
of the area could see temperatures in the lower 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Lows should be mild, generally in the lower 70s, each night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

This period begins with a compressed set of westerlies from the WFO
PAH forecast northward to a closed low over the Western Great lakes.
This closed low quickly exits eastward on Wednesday, allowing a
ridge to build northwest and expand into the forecast area from the
southwest.

With time, the intrusion of the ridge into the southwest will serve
to gradually cap diurnally induced convection from west to east
across the WFO PAH forecast area through next weekend. With the
grids, attempted to show the slow eastward progression of drier air
into the west, with shrinking PoPs to the east. Gradually warmed
temperatures through the latter half of the week as the ridge builds
into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Some light rain or light showers will flirt with KEVV and KOWB for
the first few hours of the period, but they should be of little
impact to aviation concerns. There is a strong signal for convection
to impact much of the region mainly overnight tonight, as a compact
upper-level storm system drifts southeast into the region. Not
confident enough to go with prevailing, so just made some minor
timing adjustments to the PROB30s at all sites. Could definitely see
convection affecting much of the area well into Sunday morning.
Cannot really see any non-VFR conditions outside of convection
through this forecast period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION....DRS





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