Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281823

123 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term portion of the forecast remains benign, but there
are subtle influences at play to note. For instance, a ribbon of
higher moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer was noted just to our
east, resulting in thicker cloud cover from about Louisville metro
eastward, as some energy rotates down thru the primary long wave
trof. The net result for us is diurnally enhanced cu fields over
our FA. Surface Td`s were still running in the lower 60s at this
writing, but upper 50s were starting to mix down in some locales.

This drier surface air will continue to usher in this
evening/overnight, as High pressure ridges at the surface to our
west. This should allow lows to drop to near or at least flirt
with records in the 50s tonight.

Tmrw looks similar to today as surface High pressure anchors
overhead/across the TN river valley. Another pleasantly
cooler/drier day will be on tap.

The High shifts east by Wednesday, and while we continue a dry and
altogether pleasant forecast, we do see dew points creep upward a
few degrees, as the High shifts predominant low layer flow from
Nlys to easterlys or perhaps southeasterlys. And while overall
columnar moisture remains sparce, mid level lapse rates do
approach 6C by Wed pm. This could potentially result in an
isolated shower/storm developing in the pm heat, but said Pops
appear too low to warrant mention attm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The weather pattern during the latter half of the week and into the
weekend will continue to be a trough in the eastern half of the
country. Therefore, the main concerns will be trying to deal with
any potential waves that are strong enough and have enough moisture
associated with them to warrant any mentionable POPS. On Thursday,
models have been advertising a potent system that will pass through
but the deepest moisture will pass us by to the west and south.
Models have been trying to hint at a slight possibility of some
convection over parts of our area as this system approaches and then
exits, especially over SEMO. Neither the GFS or ECMWF are really too
excited at this point, but the GFS ensembles seem to have a strong
enough signal in parts of southern MO and southwest KY to warrant
some POPS.

While there may be other subtle disturbances rotating through the
northwest flow aloft Thursday night through Friday, there is not a
strong enough signal to warrant much more than a slight chance POP.
However, later on Friday night and into Saturday and Sunday, a more
potent trough develops and might provide a better shot at rain.
Differences in timing, QPF and strength of this next system are
great enough to not get too carried away with POPS at this point
however. A broad brushed 20-30 percent will have to do for now, as
even the GFS ensembles are not showing much either.

The other good thing we are seeing in the extended, is no real hot
weather. With this trough in place during the period, temperatures
should remain mainly in the low/mid 80s for highs and low 60s at
night. In addition, the sfc pattern will one in which winds should
stay mainly northerly or northeasterly for most of the extended.
Therefore, humidity values should remain fairly comfortable,
especially by August standards.


Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Diurnal cu fields producing mid pm cigs in the low VFR range
mainly, should disperse with loss of diurnal fuel, with clearing
sky noted tonight. Tmrw should see same by mid morning, with
perhaps some mid cloud cigs advecting in as well.



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