Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 010859
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
259 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

Allowing for storm scale/mesoscale variations with 12 hours of the
actual severe weather potential, there is fairly high confidence
in the timing and coverage of the expected weather tonight through
Tuesday evening. The medium range deterministic model guidance,
such as the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian, have had a good handle on
the general timing of the convective activity for nearly 240
hours.

Focused the mention of Severe and wind damage potential in grids
starting around 17-18z (11 am CST-Noon) Tuesday, as the
convective lines begin to take shape in the zone of the deepest
moisture and increasing shear. The instability (CAPE) still
remains surprising low, even in the high resolution guidance, but
allowing for the shear and modest lapse rates, damaging wind gusts
still appear to be the primary severe weather factor. There is
decent helicity at low levels as well, but did not focus on
tornadic potential in the grids due to the storm scale
variability. Drop the mention of severe in the grids in the
extreme eastern sections of the Kentucky Pennyrile between 00-02z
(6-8 pm CST Tuesday) Wednesday, as instability is shrinking and
downdraft CAPE becomes minimal.

Given the downward transport and advection of drier air, lowered
(but blended for collaboration purposes) dewpoints sharply in the
west. Also kept wind gusts up behind the front. Not sure whether
wind advisory level winds will be maintained prior to and after
the convection, but will try to address the stronger winds
(outside of the thunderstorms) in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
and other statements.

The temperatures have been biased a little low the last couple of
days in light of the strong warm advection. This current package
may still be one to two degrees too low for max temperatures prior
to the onset of widespread convection on Tuesday in some
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

Average confidence in the long term due to model differences.

Per latest long range model guidance, very little going on in the
long term period. In the upper levels, models indicate a couple of
short wave passages but due to a relative lack of deep moisture no
precipitation is expected at this time.

The first short wave passes by on Thursday but with high pressure at
the surface its passage will likely go undetected. The second short
wave will push/pull a cold front across the region on Saturday but
again due to a lack of moisture no precipitation is forecast. Given
the time of year and the propensity for models to under forecast
moisture/QPF in the long term, not convinced we will remain dry
through the entire period. Will have to keep an eye on that.

Temperatures will start off the period near normal, but will
quickly warm to above normal through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1152 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

Low VFR cigs prevail in the early morning hours, but cigs will
gradually lift and dissipate throughout the day. Light rain
showers will linger over the next few hours along and just behind
the front, mainly impacting KOWB, KPAH, and areas in W KY, SE IL,
and far SW IN. Some mid/high clouds will re-enter the area late
Monday as the next system approaches. Winds near the front and its
associated showers are still up around 10 knots with a few gusts,
but post-frontal winds will generally be AOB 10 knots throughout
Monday, shifting eastward during the day.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JAP



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