Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 271523
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1024 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR TODAY. INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE ARE VERY LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IS ERODING CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THIS MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS STARTED NORTH OF KMVN. EXPECT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO PREVENT SKIES FROM BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FAR AS TEMPS...NO CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING INTO/ACROSS WKY AT THIS WRITING...WILL
EFFECTIVELY FROPA FA BY BEGINNING OF FORECAST. WHILE THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY LEAD TO COOLER/DRIER AIR COMING IN ITS WAKE...NW FLOW
ALOFT MAY STILL HELP INDUCE ISOLATED DIURNALLY FLARED STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE SLGT CHANCE MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE DO ANTICIPATE THE L60S DEW POINTS PERCHED JUST
UPSTREAM TO NOSE INTO OUR AREA. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
THIS COOLER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A QUITE PLEASANT NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM (SUN NITE-MON NITE)...MEAN
ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPILLS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF AND SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CHANCE
POP FOR US AS ITS ENERGY PINWHEELS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN THE SOWDY2-3 GRAPHIC OUTLOOKING
MARGINAL RISK FOR LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE`LL UP POPS
ACCORDINGLY/COLLABORATIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS PERIOD IS PUNCTUATED BY A SERIES OF EXTREMELY LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CHANNELED VORTICITY PROVIDES
SUFFICIENT LIFT WITHIN THIS ZONE FOR THERMAL INSTABILITY...SUBJECT
TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE FEEING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE
HIGH. THE OVERALL POP FORECAST WILL BE CONTIGENT ON THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK, THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON MOISTURE ADVECTIION WITHIN THE
FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR WHICH THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN FLOW HAS NOT CHANGED SO DIURNAL/NON-DIURNAL
POP CHANCES REMAIN REASONABLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...GIVEN THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES THAT MAY DISRUPT THE
FLOW NEXT WEEK.

OTHER THAN THE COLLABORATED BLENDED GUIDANCE...LEANED A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS
WRITING...HAVING RECENTLY PASSED KCGI/KPAH AND NOW BEARING DOWN ON
KEVV/KOWB. ITS PASSAGE WILL BRING AN END TO ISOLATED PRE DAWN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AS MIXING LENDS TO
ELEVATING CLOUD BASES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT MAY INDUCE SOME OF THESE
INTO DIURNALLY FUELED SHOWERS OR STORMS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MY
LONG TERM...SMITH



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