Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 110141
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
841 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

The latest HRRR data keeps any convective activity to our
west/northwest until through 09Z, and then indicates scattered
showers and storms spreading into southern Illinois and southeast
Missouri through sunrise. Adjusted the forecast to delay the
arrival of convection overnight into Friday morning.

Temperatures are a bit tricky this evening, as clear skies and
calm winds have allowed some locations, especially in the east, to
drop faster than forecast. Would trend downward with temperatures
overnight, but clouds are expected to increase over most of the
region before sunrise. Decided to keep lows at the same general
levels, but have them occurring shortly after 06Z and then steady
or slightly warming through sunrise as the clouds increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Showers from Perryville to northwest of Van Buren hitting a wedge
of drier air, and weak surface ridge. So little eastward progress
expected into the evening (we think anyway). In fact, the hi res
data dissipates activity through the evening. Then after midnight,
some redevelopment appears possible from southern IL into
southeast MO.

Friday, a mid level wave is forecast to move across the area from
WNW to ESE, Bumped up PoPs to likely by afternoon, though coverage
is still somewhat of a question. If you buy the NAM, we may see
some strong storms (isolated svr?) in west KY, though low level
flow is weak in the model. Mid level flow isn`t bad. The other
models aren`t as impressive on convective parameters. Never know
what to think of the GFS. The NAM has not been too bad lately for
near term trends, so we`ll monitor. Chances will decrease from
west to east Friday evening. Saturday into Saturday night will be
mainly dry. Maybe a slight chance of convection over SEMO.

Persistence and latest MOS used for temps. Favored the NAM overall
for PoPs/Wx.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Medium confidence in the extended period, with model disagreement
continuing with regard to timing and placement of shortwave energy
across the area.

Sunday starts off with weak surface high pressure that gradually
loses its grip on the region. 12z model guidance has generally came
in slower with timing of precipitation, with consensus supporting
Sunday evening into at least the first half of Monday now. 12z GFS
continues to be an outlier, keeping rain with the Sunday wave south
of the area, and has secondary stronger energy moving through Monday
into Monday night. Thus kept in small chance PoPs through Monday
evening/night. The highest QPF amounts are expected across the
southern half of the region, and northern counties may not end up
with much.

Surface high pressure builds in from the north on Tuesday, providing
a dry weather day. The 12z ECMWF and Canadian came in faster with
southerly flow/moisture returning and bring back in precipitation
chances for the western half of the area by Wednesday. GFS and its
ensemble mean continue to support a slower wave and keep it dry
until Wednesday night or Thursday. The blended approach stuck with
the slower solution with PoPs not returning until Wednesday
night and peaking again next Thursday.

Temperatures will continue to average below normal through the
period with highs generally in the low to mid 80s and lows dipping
into the mid 60s. Humidity levels also aren`t expected to get too
carried away with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s much of the
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

VFR conditions with light winds through midday Friday. Small
chance of showers and storms after 06z. Not enough confidence in
the chances and coverage to include in the TAF`s.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS



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