Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 132026
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
226 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Event diminishing this afternoon on schedule. Things seemed to pan
out ok, with 0.05-0.20" glaze most areas, maybe a tad more parts
of southern IL. Impacts more so on elevated surfaces, not so much
roads. Cannot rule out some lingering freezing drizzle in the wake
of the NE moving precip area. Will continue the Advisory til 6
p.m. and the evening shift can go from there.

Will have a lull this evening. Again, may see some drizzle at
times. Maybe a slight chance of rain. Temps should be above
freezing nearly all areas by shortly after dark. Exception area
may be from a Marble Hill, MO to Mount Vernon, IL line and points
west. Rain should pick up again after midnight. Temps will be very
close to 32F Perry County MO to Perry County IL. Will have to
monitor. For now, no new headlines. Rain chances to continue
Saturday and Saturday night. Models seemed a bit low on QPF
overall past 24-30 hours. Will have to monitor for standing water
issues Saturday, mainly parts of SEMO, southern IL. Rain chances
to continue Sunday. Basically followed the NAM/EC solutions,
especially for temps.

Noles

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The long-term period will be highlighted by a moist southwest flow
aloft over our region. The 500 mb longwave trough position will
remain over the western states. A series of shortwaves will eject
northeast across the central states. The models are in relatively
poor agreement on the timing of these shortwaves, especially
compared to yesterdays model runs. This makes it difficult to
forecast dry weather on any day in the long-term period.

The models remain in good agreement that the strongest system will
affect our region early in the week, bringing the potential for a
widespread soaking rainfall. The 12z gfs has abruptly sped up the
system compared to previous guidance. The slower 12z ecmwf is
consistent with previous runs of both the ecmwf and gfs, and the
forecast will be heavily weighted toward the ecmwf timing. This
means rain is likely Monday night and Tuesday, along with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The models continue to indicate 850 mb
southerly flow will be near 50 knots ahead of the cold front,
bringing some weak elevated instability. Forecast rainfall amounts
have come down slightly, and they now average 1 to 2 inches for the
event. Temps will generally be in the 50s and 60s in the mild
southerly flow Monday through Tuesday.

Rain will taper off from west to east Tuesday night. The best chance
of dry weather appears to be Wednesday and Wednesday night in the
wake of the departing low pressure system. Winds will turn into the
west Tuesday night, bringing slightly cooler air. Highs on Wednesday
will be in the 50s.

Thursday into Friday, there is a large range of model solutions.
Once again, the faster gfs and gfs ensemble mean are not preferred
due to their lack of consistency. The 12z gfs camp brings two
moisture-laden shortwaves northeastward into the Ohio Valley late in
the week. The ecmwf is drier, but it also indicates some qpf with a
weak shortwave on Friday. Due to the moist southwest flow aloft, a
small chance of rain seems warranted from Thursday into Friday,
regardless of model preference. Temps will turn milder, with highs
in the 60s due to returning southerly surface winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Widespread low stratus, drizzle, and fog will plague the region
through this taf period. A cool northeast wind flow right near the
surface will be overtopped by a milder east to southeast flow at 2
to 4k feet. Conditions will be primarily ifr through the period in
the kpah/kcgi areas. Further north in the kevv/kowb areas, intervals
of mvfr are likely through early this evening, followed by ifr.
Conditions in the lifr category are likely Saturday morning as the
low level wind flow becomes very light. Periods of rain and drizzle
will continue. It appears temps will remain above freezing at the
taf sites, however the freezing line will be very close.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>091.

MO...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107.

IN...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for INZ081-
     085.

KY...None.
&&

$$



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