Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 171737

1238 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

Updated aviation section for 18z tafs


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 204 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A couple of weak frontal passages occur in the short term portion
of the forecast. The first one occurs early today, a dry passage
as energy in the mean upper Low pinwheels thru the base of the
trof. Heights lower in its wake and draws down some slightly
cooler air that settles in this weekend. Highs in the 70s today
cool back to the 60s for the weekend, and lows that were in the
50s cool back into the 40s. These temps are reinforced by another
shot of energy pinwheeling the trof Saturday, but again, it`s
moisture starved so no Pops exist.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Perhaps the best chance of rain in the entirety of the forecast
comes starting out the long term portion on Monday. An
advancing/developing low pressure and frontal system sweeps in
from the west, as the surface high shifts east. The 00z gfs/ecmwf
start to paint a little bit of qpf, but as we just eliminated Pops
in the runs prior, we`ll wait for more consistent modeling of qpf
before we re-introduce it. Either way it wont amount to much, but
it does perhaps offer the best chance of a Pop existing at some
point. The front and upper trof axis pass by Monday night, and the
main effect is a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler air that
keeps the 60s/40s running through the remainder of the course of
the workweek.


Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A dry cold front will pass across the taf sites this
afternoon...causing a gradual wind shift into the west/northwest.
The leading edge of post frontal cumulus clouds over Missouri and
Illinois will advance southeast...reaching the kevv/kowb areas about
22-23z. The leading edge may tend to break up as it reaches
kcgi/kpah this forecast only scattered clouds there.
More widespread cigs should develop by late Saturday morning at
kpah/kcgi. Cigs are forecast to be vfr at all sites...mainly around
4k feet. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish around sunset.




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