Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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290
FXUS63 KPAH 151819
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
119 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOIST SSW FLOW AND SUBTLE
SUPPORT ALOFT. THE RESULT SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA MOVING SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUGGESTS ISOLATED GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND OVERALL CAPE SUGGEST A LITTLE HAIL POSSIBLE. OVERALL...ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE UNLIKELY. SHOULD BE A DOWN
TREND LATER THIS EVENING...THEN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
LATE TONIGHT PER THE NAM/GFS. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER LULL SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREE
FOR SATURDAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
VERY WARM...AND WITH THE FRONT OFF TO THE NW...SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY...WITH CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SETTLES SE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA
MONDAY.  WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND LINGERS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY
NIGHT MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY.  KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PAH FA DUE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.  BY
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.  THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
OUR REGION DRY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY, ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME QPF CREEPING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAH FA DUE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.  THIS FEATURE STAYS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND
ONLY GENERATES MAINLY LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WILL SEE LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES.  BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF TO
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD (18Z SAT) WITH ON AND
OFF CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN.
UPDATES WILL BE LIKELY AS CONVECTION EVOLVES. WE DO EXPECT SSW
WINDS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KTS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...THE CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS INCREASES
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THE RULE. WILL USE PROB30`S AFT 06Z THROUGH
18Z SAT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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