Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 162337
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
637 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

High pressure now just east of the region will continue to bring
dry conditions tonight through Thursday. With the high to the east
of the area, light southeasterly flow should hold temperatures
above the freezing mark tonight. Still may see some patchy frost
though...esp in sheltered areas where the wind may go calm.

Models are in decent agreement that the next weak sfc trof and H50
short wave will approach the region later Thursday night and
Friday morning. Trend has been weaker and weaker with the surface
low as the main H50 energy breaks off and dives se into the Gulf
Coast states. Will leave slight chc pops in for the weak frontal
package, but looks to be a non event at this time.

Even though the winds will turn around to the northwest after the
frontal package, there will be very little if any cold air
advection. In fact, a return to sunshine will likely push
afternoon readings to near 70 degrees Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The extended forecast period begins with ridging over the WFO PAH
forecast area. Although there is a slight phasing and amplitude difference in
the northern stream (basically northern 1/3rd of the U.S.) and the
southern stream (southern 2/3rds of the U.S.) flow, the ridge and
trough pattern is similar, but moves out of phase Saturday night
into Sunday morning.

The deterministic medium range model suite (namely the ECMWF, GFS,
GEM) guidance shears the low/trough over the Four Corners region in
the Southwest U.S. northeastward to the WFO PAH forecast area Sunday
through Monday with precipitation chances oriented along and east of
the southwest to northeast oriented trough axis.

There is sufficient instability to warrant a differential PoP
forecast for thunder with the passage of the system Sunday into
Monday. Otherwise a relatively drier and warmer temperature trend
will be in store for the end of the forecast period.

Max/Min temperatures will average around five degrees above normal
during this time of year.

Looking beyond the current forecast cycle, dominate ridging is
projected during the middle of next week, with an extremely slow
moving, but deep trough pushing across the WFO PAH forecast area
late next week (last weekend of April). The ECMWF/GFS vary
significantly on the orientation and intensity of the upper trough,
but this event could be a rain soaker with some limited severe
weather potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 637 PM  CDT WED APR 16 2014

High cloud will be thinning out across the area this evening, and
clear skies are expected by morning. The pressure gradient is a
bit variable through the night, but should support a light
southeast wind. Therefore would be surprised to see any fog
formation tonight.

A weakening NNE/SSW oriented cold front will approach the area
Thursday, but the gradient weakens ahead of it. Wont rule out a
few gusts into the teens at KEVV and KOWB mainly in the morning,
but confidence to low to mention. South winds will be sustained
near 10kts at all locations. The latest guidance indicates that
low-level moisture will try to increase a bit ahead of the front
on Thursday. Added a scattered cu deck, but would be surprised to
see a persistent ceiling conditions anywhere.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS






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