Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 300825
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A WELL-DEVELOPED MCV OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS OF 08Z ARE FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THEY
SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY MIDDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNSET. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI COUNTIES BY 09Z AND MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY AT SUNRISE.

THE LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z NMM AND ARW WRF RUNS DEVELOP SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY...AND MAINTAIN GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING.

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM LIKE THE WAY TO GO. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH HEATING WE WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG
STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND MAY
PUSH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY
DUE TO THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. REALLY NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FROM THE 00Z MODELS ON SUNDAY...BUT
WITH THE LARGER-SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.

THE FORECAST IS DRY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
COOL...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...AND WAS FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM PERIOD

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HRS MAKES. THOUGH THERE WERE HINTS PREVIOUSLY
THAT IT MIGHT HAPPEN...THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE NOW TRENDED MUCH
DRIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST HALF. THE
PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE DOMINANCE NOW AS A DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY FILTERS INTO THE AREA INITIALLY. AS A WRN CONUS TROF PERSISTS
IN VARYING DEGREES ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...SOME
VERSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE NRN STREAM REMAINING
ACTIVE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE ERN CONUS RIDGE
APPEARED TO BE FAR AWAY ENOUGH FROM THE PAH FORECAST AREA (THE
ATLANTIC COAST) AS TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER US WILL BE WEAK.

BY THU...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PICK UP MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT
OVER OUR REGION...AND THEREFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE MADE
AVAILABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY YIELD THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DISAPPEAR THU NIGHT..THEN RETURN FOR FRI
WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE.

IN THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MID WEEK...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
STILL REACH ABOUT 80 TUE...CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ABOUT 60 INITIALLY TO ABOUT
65.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK COLD
FRONT DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES, CEILINGS WILL
WORK DOWNWARD WITH TIME AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...SMITH


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