Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 201758 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1258 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Above average confidence in the short term.

The combination of clear skies, calm winds, and moisture trapped
below the nocturnal inversion has produced patchy dense fog over
portions of southwest Illinois and the southeast Missouri counties
bordering the Mississippi River. Have issued a Special Weather
Statement to that effect until 13Z. Do not plan to issue a Dense Fog
Advisory at this time.

Very little to discuss and very few changes synoptically through the
short term period. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is
forecast through the period producing dry, warm, and humid
conditions.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

The trend to have the ridge dominate the WFO PAH forecast area
through nearly all this week remains in force during this time
period.  The evolution of the remnants of Hurricane Paine, the
sharpening trough over the Pacific Northwest are still uncertain as
to the time and location of these features and their impact on the
local area early next week. For now, kept a small PoP within the
forecast area, starting with late Sunday night. Otherwise, dry
conditon should dominate most of the area through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Under high pressure at the surface, and ridging aloft, aviators
should expect light winds through the 24 hr TAF period, quite
variable in direction, with a generally easterly component. VFR
conditions can be expected during the daylight hours, however vsbys
may be restricted to IFR/LIFR by fog during the overnight hrs,
mainly over southern IL, southeastern MO, and adjacent parts of
western KY.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DB



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