478
FXUS63 KSGF 262313
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily heat index values in the middle to upper 90s into early
  next week.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm activity into next week, mainly
  isolated to scattered in nature. No all day washouts expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A robust cumulus field has formed over the state this afternoon. The
best area for convection to initiate will be primarily west of
Highway 65 this afternoon where the best moisture and
instability is located. These showers/thunderstorms are expected
to remain sub-severe. Though, they could drop some brief heavy
rainfall as model PWATs are 1.7-1.8" and showers from the
previous past few days have dropped a quick 0.25-0.50". As
daylight heating diminishes, so will our rain chances.

Tonight, expect partly cloudy skies as the remnants of an MCS
start to push through by early Friday morning. Lows will be warm
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

There`s a 50-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday
morning north of I-44 as what`s left of the MCS pushes through
our area. As the morning continues and the boundary pushes
south, rain chances decrease slightly. Areas south of I-44 have
a 40-60% chance of seeing rain. Expect rainfall to be a bit more
widespread tomorrow than it will be today with rainfall amounts
staying under 1 inch. With clouds and rain lingering around the
area tomorrow, highs will be a bit cooler in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The long term forecast is a persistence forecast. Shortwave
energy will continue to bring daily rain chances into the middle
of next week, with the greatest chances in the
afternoons/evenings. Look for 40-50% chances on Saturday, 30-60%
Sunday and Monday, and 20-30% Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures through this period will be susceptible to changes
due to convective trends, but generally looking at highs in the
mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Look
for daily heat index values in the mid to upper 90s through at
least Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the 00z TAFS, will need to monitor broken area of convection
to our west for potentially moving into JLN this evening.
However, we should see instability begin to diminish with the
loss of daytime heating and it would be moving into a less
favorable air mass, so for now, we left it out of the 00z TAFS
for this evening. We do have some prob30`s for convection and
MVFR conditions in the overnight period at JLN and during the
afternoon at SGF/BBG, but otherwise expecting VFR conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Lindenberg