000
FXUS63 KSGF 180439
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1139 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Skies will continue to slowly clear from west to east across the
region this afternoon. Clearing will then accelerate this evening
with the loss of daytime heating (and the dissipation of cumulus
clouds). With winds expected to be light tonight, overnight lows
should have no problem dropping into the lower 60s over most
areas. Some areas along the I-49 corridor may manage to remain in
the middle 60s as high clouds may begin to push in around sunrise.

We should then continue to see an increase in high and perhaps mid
level clouds over western Missouri Friday morning as elevated
convection pushes southeast across central and eastern Kansas.
This activity should decay as it approaches western Missouri, thus
PoPs have been kept around 10%. Adjustments upward may be needed
if we determine this activity will make it farther to the east.

There is then some potential for convective development late in
the afternoon near the MO/KS state line, especially if any
outflow boundaries remain from the decaying morning activity. Most
(if not all) convective initiation Friday afternoon should be
confined to areas from northern Missouri into northwestern
Oklahoma closer to a surface boundary.

High temperatures for Friday should return to near normal values
with most locations warming into the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact portions of the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas as early as 8 or 9 PM mainly for
areas along and west of I-49. The upper level wave and surface
cold front then moves through the region early Saturday morning.
There is a marginal risk for some strong to isolated severe storms
with this front. Will continue to monitor the ingredients as we go
through the day Friday.

THe GFS and Canadian are in really good agreement with this
occurring. The ECMWF is significantly lower regarding rain
potential despite a very similar upper level pattern. The pattern
then looks dry from all models through Sunday morning before
strong southerly surface flow brings increasing low level moisture
and a good low level jet for Sunday night into Monday.

The GFS and Canadian are once again more bullish on rain chances
and with cloud cover. With the eclipse on Monday, this may be an
issue. At this time, the rain chances are only slightly more than
the last forecast with the expected cloud cover increasing
slightly as well.

The first half of next week looks fairly active with rounds of
showers and thunderstorms each day. The end of week looks a bit
quieter with high pressure moving across the Great Lakes region
and keeping most of the rain activity to the south and west of the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Much drier air mass is in place compared to 24 hours ago and a
mostly clear sky has been in place for the evening so far. Should
continue to see VFR conditions through the period with high
pressure across the region. May see some scattered convection
developing during the evening late in the period over the far
northwestern CWA ahead of an approaching front, but probability
too low to mention this far out.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg