Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151056
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
456 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

The storm system that brought some much needed rain to southern
Missouri over the last 36 hours is finally exiting the region.
Remaining high clouds on the back edge of this system will
continue to clear from northwest to southeast during the predawn
and early morning hours. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are
generally expected today with a fairly steady north-northwest
wind.

Despite weak cold air advection this morning, advection will
become neutral this afternoon. With 850 mb temperatures in the
0 to 2 degree Celsius range, we went on the warm side of guidance
for highs today. We are generally looking at afternoon
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s over the eastern Ozarks to
the lower 50s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

Quiet conditions are then expected for tonight as surface winds
begin to shift around to the southwest. Lows are expected to range
from the upper 20s across eastern Ozarks to the middle 30s along
and west of the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

The well-advertised warming trend will commence on Thursday as
upper level ridging begins. High temperatures will warm into the
60s area wide. Fire weather conditions will be a concern on
Thursday as winds increase and become moderately gusty out of the
southwest. Afternoon humidities will also drop below 30 percent.

Warm conditions will then persist through the upcoming weekend
into early next week. We have continued to go on the warm side of
temperature guidance. There are a few opportunities for
precipitation from this weekend into early next week. The first
chance could come late Friday night or Saturday across south-
central Missouri as upper level energy swings northeast into the
region. Confidence remains fairly low regarding this scenario. If
precipitation does materialize, it would be light in nature.

Global models then bring a larger trough east through the central
United States early next week. However, models are struggling a
bit with the structure of this trough. This is bringing timing
into question. We still believe there will be a decent shot at
showers and perhaps some thunderstorms sometime in the late Sunday
night through Tuesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 454 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions will continue through tonight with a few high
clouds. Surface winds will remain out of the northwest today
around 10 knots. Winds will then become light and variable this
evening before beginning to increase out of the southwest late
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann



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