Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1134 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over southern
MO and northern AR. An inverted upper level trough axis that
extends from the lower to the mid MS Vly is aiding in the
development. For our area, expect any convection to be hit-and-
miss but with much more coverage than the last couple of days.
Have seen some brief cores that will be supportive of small
hail/gusty winds. Expect the activity to weaken/dissipate early
this evening.

For Monday, we should see somewhat of a repeat of today. A large
western CONUS trough will edge east with a persistent moisture
plume over the Plains trying to edge into out nw counties Mon
night. Meanwhile diurnally driven convection is expected again with
the remains of the upper level through/shear axis that shifts
west from the MS River Vly. Again, rain chances will be fairly sparse.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A split upper level flow pattern will develop with a shortwave
moving through the Dakotas and Great Lakes Tue/Tue night while a
closed low hangs back over the southwest U.S.. A weak sfc
trough/front will move through the area Tue with better (but not
overwhelmingly good) chances for showers/isolated tstms over the
western cwfa behind the front Tue into Wed. Weak forcing both at
the sfc and aloft will limit rain chances farther east later Wed
as the sfc trough weakens/loses definition. For areas looking for
significant rain to ease recent dry conditions, this front will
mostly disappoint in our cwfa.

Drier air will work it`s way into se KS/southern MO as sfc high
pressure moves in Wed night and Thu. Another Canadian sfc high
center is expected to move into the Midwest Fri/Sat/Sunday with
cool dry weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Sky has cleared out at the TAF sites this evening after earlier
convection at SGF/BBG. Should have predominantly VFR conditions,
although may see a brief period of MVFR at BBG towards sunrise.




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