Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181730

1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Ongoing convection is occurring over the far western cwfa.
Isentropic upglide/low level 850mb convergence, 1000-1500 J/kg
mucape, and enough vertical shear to promote updraft strength
continues. Seeing hail cores look strong occasionally bordering on
severe. Convection has pushed the effective boundary a bit more to
the west and southwest over the past hour or two, but there is
still a flash flood risk where storms can train over the far sw
cwfa over the next few hours.

In general, a weaker low level jet should better limit persistent
chances for stronger convection today. Will still maintain some
pops focused over the western-southwestern cwfa.

A dense fog advisory is already out for areas roughly along and
southeast of higher elevations of the MO Ozarks Plateau. Branson
area has been socked in for a few hours. May have to look at
modifying the advisory a bit, but overall it still looks good.
Will need to consider adding some fog for tonight`s forecast as
well with plenty of low level moisture and weak low level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

No big changes here. A progressive upper level ridge will move
east over the region for Fri with dry weather after any fog burns
off. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with the passage
of a shortwave and frontal passage. Not quite as impressive rain
wise with the stronger portion of the shortwave passing off to the
north and northeast. Sfc high pressure will build into the Midwest
by Mon-Tue. Pattern becomes a little bit muddled by Wednesday with
more of a high amplitude blocking pattern developing. Kept
Wednesday dry for now, but have pretty low confidence as to
how/where the large scale flow pattern evolves.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Pilots can expect variable flight conditions at area terminals
today and tonight. MVFR ceilings will impact the area at times
today. MVFR and even IFR ceilings are expected to become prevalent tonight
into Friday morning. In addition to low ceilings, areas of light
fog are expected late tonight.




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