Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 302357
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonight`s
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A disturbance moving from ne OK into
nw AR will continue to produce an area of rain/low ceilings over
southwest MO. Conditions have varied, mainly mvfr and some ifr
ceilings, and expect that to continue. MOS guidance is quite
pessimistic and doing a poor job compared to conditions being
observed, so took a middle of the road approach with mostly
mvfr/vfr conditions at KJLN and KBBG and MVFR/IFR at KBBG over the
next 12-18 hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA





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