Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261710

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1210 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Update for 18Z TAFs...

Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Surface front and upper level energy were combining for an
enhanced area of convection from western KS into the U.P. of MI
early this morning. A strong upper level wave was located north of
MN over southwestern Ontario. An upper level ridge was centered
over north TX and extends north into the central Plains.

With the front remaining to our north today, heat and humidity
will be the main focus and a heat advisory will remain in effect
for the entire area.

The front will sag south tonight into Thursday night and will be
the focus for convection across the CWA.

Cooler and drier weather expected for the weekend into early next
week behind this front.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

For today, expecting similar conditions to yesterday, with maybe a
bit more cloud cover in the northern CWA ahead of approaching
front. Temperatures will once again reach the mid to upper 90s
with heat index values from 100 to around 107 expected. Earlier
shift had introduced a heat advisory for the entire CWA for today
and feel no reason to stray away from that. Like the past couple
of days, some isolated diurnal convection will be possible during
the afternoon and early evening, not associated with the main
frontal system.

The shortwave over southwest Ontario will track east-southeast
and carve out a larger trough across the east by Thursday. This
will cause a cold front to drop southeast into the region tonight
and Thursday. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be
possible north of the CWA tonight with some thunderstorm activity
making it into our northern CWA later tonight. Heavy rain will be
the main risk across our northern CWA with PW values of 2 to 2.25
in. possible.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Some lingering convection will be possible Thursday morning, but
we may have a dry period from mid to late morning into the mid
afternoon hours. Additional convection is expected to develop
along the frontal boundary late Thursday into Thursday night, most
likely affecting southern Missouri along and south of the I44
corridor. Some strong to possibly severe storms will be possible
before ending late Thursday night.

Drier air and cooler temperatures should begin to move into the
area behind the front by Friday afternoon and night. Highs will
return to the 80s for the weekend into early next week with
generally dry conditions expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours,
as high cloud cover remains in place across the region. Convection
will likely remain north of the terminals through mid day
tomorrow. LLWS will be a concern tonight as a low level jet
develops across the region.


MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.