Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KSGF 271134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
534 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0233 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

As of 3:00 am this morning, a cold front was slowly moving
through the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures are in the 60s ahead of
this front but quickly fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s
behind the passage of the front. In fact, the temperature dropped
almost 20 degrees in about 15 minutes here at the office this
morning with the passage.

PW values are impressive for this time of year with values around
1.5 inches. There is strong subtropical jet stream above the
region that is bringing in a lot of moisture over the area. It is
like a continuous conveyer belt of water just streaming in. There
are no big changes in the forecast. Widespread moderate to heavy rain
will continue to move across the Missouri Ozarks today. The
heaviest axis of rainfall will gradually shift from northwest of
the I-44 corridor southward across the I-44 corridor and southern
Missouri later today and tonight. Temperatures behind the front
will not move much today with temperatures staying in the middle
to upper 30 north of I-44 and lower to middle 40s south of I-44.

Hi-Res short term models continue to indicate that the freezing
line or 32 isotherm may reach portions of Bourbon and Crawford
Counties Kansas and portions of Vernon County Missouri this
evening and overnight. Will have to monitor how far south the
freezing line does make it.

Right now...the thinking is there will be a limited risk for light freezing
rain across those areas tonight with a very light glaze of ice
possible on exposed or elevated objects. At this time, we do not
think this will cause any travel problems for our area with the
ground temperatures rather warm. A degree will make all the
difference between just light rain or light freezing rain with
temperatures borderline of 32 or 33 degrees. The rest of the area
tonight will stay above freezing in the middle to upper 30s and a
cold rain.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0247 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

With a large and deep upper level trough across the western U.S.,
our area will remain in a southwest flow for the weekend. Several
more impulses will ride along the upper level flow and interact
with the stalled out front to our south. This will continue the
chance for additional rainfall Saturday and Sunday. Storm total
rainfall from now through the weekend still looking at widespread
2 to 4 inches of rainfall with some amounts approaching 5 inches
across far southern Missouri south of Highway 60. Flooding of low
water crossings, streams, and rivers is a big concern over the
next few days.

The large storm system over the western U.S. will lift out across
the Central Plains and Upper Midwest by Monday. Showers will end
from southwest to northeast on Monday. The weather pattern shifts
to more of a northwesterly or westerly flow by the middle of next
week with seasonable cool and drier weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0520 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

The cold front has passed east of all airports early this morning
so will not have to contend with wind shift for this round of
TAFS. Wind speeds are expected to average around 10 kts.

The main concern will be ifr to lifr ceilings during much of the
forecast period as a continuous fetch of moisture spreads
northeastward ahead of an upper level trough centered over the
southwest US. Will keep rain prevailing through at least the
first 12 hours at all airports with gradual tapering from west to
east through the evening/overnight hours.


Issued at 0247 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Current daily rainfall records for November 27th...
Springfield1.49 inches set back in 1917
Joplin1.10 inches set back in 1913
Rolla-Vichy1.51 inches set back in 1990
West Plains1.46 inches set back in 1990

All climate sites are on track with the current rainfall forecast
to end up in the top 5 wettest November on record.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055>058-

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
CLIMATE...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.