Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 232241

541 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The cold front is now located near the Missouri Arkansas border
this afternoon. The bulk of the convection and stronger activity
has now pushed south of the area. Some scattered convection is
developing behind the front across southern Missouri this
afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance pushes south through
the region. This activity will slowly spread south during the
rest of this afternoon and this activity will push out of the area
early this evening with no severe weather expected. Brief heavy
rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes can be
expect with the storms within this activity.

A slightly cooler and drier air mass will spread into the region
behind the front tonight into Thursday as the upper level ridge is
pushed slightly to the west over the Plains. Highs on Thursday
will range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the
upper 80s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The upper level ridge will build back over the central U.S. on
Friday into this weekend. Highs will warm back into the 90s each
afternoon with heat index values warming to around 100 to near 105
degrees each afternoon as increasing low level moisture also
spreads into the region. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower
to middle 90s.

An upper level trough will push across the northern Plains on
Sunday and will then dive south across the region early next week.
This will push a cold front through the area. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the front Saturday afternoon
into Sunday afternoon as the front nears and pushes through the

The upper level ridge will be pushed back over the west coast
as the upper level trough moves over the eastern U.S. with our area
under the trough. This will result in below normal temperatures
through much of next week as highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s occur.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Convection has shifted off to the south into Arkansas with a few
small cells just north of the border and east of the BBG terminal.
Will hold on for an hour at the onset of the 00z TAF for BBG to
VCTS wording. Otherwise, with slightly drier and cooler air mass
moving in, should have a clear sky through the remainder of the
TAF period. There could be some MVFR visibilities develop
overnight, especially in areas which received rainfall earlier
today. For this reason, have gone with some light fog at the terminals.




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