Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 200910
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
410 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Another Very Warm and Humid Day With Scattered Storm Chances
This Afternoon...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

All is quiet across the Missouri Ozarks region this morning but we
have been watching a couple features this morning. One very
localized cluster of storms just west of our CWA in southeast
Kansas that has been stationary over the past 3 or 4 hours. And we
are watching a complex of storms across northeast Kansas into
northwest Missouri moving southeastward. Hi-res model guidance
has been struggling with both of these features over the next few
hours.

We think the cluster in southeast Kansas will soon fizzle out and
not move into our local CWA this morning. The complex across
northern Missouri will mainly stay north of I-70 but will drop
down an outflow boundary later this morning into the afternoon.
That outflow boundary will be the focus for the development of
scattered showers and storms starting in Central Missouri and
slowly moving southward or even southwestward across the Missouri
Ozarks and maybe eventually southeast Kansas this afternoon. The
short term models do not pick up on this very well if any. The
NAMNest model guidance is trying to catch on the idea.

Given the strong instability and some shear, we think an isolated
strong storm is possible with gusty winds and hail up to the size
of quarters possible. There is abundant of low level moisture
available and there may be a localized heavy rainfall with any
storm that moves slowly.

There may be some pooling of dewpoints and surface moisture ahead
of the outflow boundary as it moves southward today. This will
help increase the heat index values especially for southeast
Kansas into western Missouri. There will be a heat advisory for
this afternoon for areas along and west of I-49 with heat index
values between 103 and 108 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the big Solar Eclipse, the sky conditions may be okay for some
and a little iffy for others across the region. The majority of
the area will see partly cloudy skies with a 20 percent chance
of a few showers or storms in the afternoon. The GFS is the most
bullish while the ECMWF and NAM has less QPF during the 17z to 19z
time frame. There may be more clouds just north of our local
area.

A decent shortwave will move across the Midwest Region on Tuesday
and bring down a Canadian cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Widespread showers and storms will be likely ahead and
along the cold front. A few strong storms will be possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across the area. On average a general half
an inch to 1 inch of rainfall will be possible with the rain on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

A very nice weather pattern will be around for the end of the week
into the early part of the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80 and overnight lows in the middle 50s to around 60
degrees.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A remnant shower was located over eastern Taney county east of
BBG, but not expecting this to affect the terminal location.
Should remain in VFR for the TAF sites through the period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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