Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 122335 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Weak boundary making its way south of I-44 may yet lead to
isolated convection over the eastern CWA where MLCAPES are in the
500-1200 range and CIN is limited though upper support is lacking
and lift along the front insufficient to maintain any storms that
could break the cap. Also, a dry airmass in the mid level is also
limiting updraft potential.

Long wave trough will dig southward toward the Great Lakes driving a
second cold front through the region on Sunday. MLCAPES of
1000-2000 without CIN to lead to scattered storms along and ahead
of the front Sunday afternoon. Weak shear though will make it
difficult for convection to become organized.

High temperatures Sunday will be the last day in the 90s before a
dry Canadian air mass descends into the eastern U.S.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Models all carve a significant upper trough through the Great
Lakes during the period resulting in unseasonably cool weather for
the coming work week.

A short wave and associated height falls will descend the western
side of the trough on Monday providing the best chance for rain
during the forecast period.

Upper flow will turn west-northwest on Thursday allowing
temperatures to begin to recover on Friday into the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours. South winds
will persist, shifting to southwest during the day Sunday as a
weak front approaches from the north. A brief period of low level
wind shear is expected late tonight as a low level jet spreads
into the area. The aforementioned weak front will eventually lead
to chances for showers and storms Sunday afternoon at JLN/SGF. For
now, have handled with PROB30 as the amount of coverage of this
activity is in question.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan







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