Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210845
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Low level moisture will increase overnight and into Friday morning
ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. Confidence
remains high that MVFR ceilings will develop Friday morning.
Patchy drizzle also remains possible from Friday morning into the
early afternoon. Weather models then continue to show lowering
ceilings throughout the day and into Friday evening. IFR ceilings
appear likely starting either late Friday afternoon or early
Friday evening. Scattered showers are also expected along with the
threat for isolated thunderstorms. We elected not to include
thunderstorms in the TAFs given the expected limited coverage.
Meanwhile, southeast surface winds will increase on Friday and
will be gusty from mid morning into the afternoon. Low level wind
shear will then develop by Friday evening as a low level jet
stream develops over southern Missouri.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






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