Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 271201
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Very warm conditions are occurring early this morning across the
region, with many locations still within a few degrees of 80 at 2
AM.  Temperatures should cool a couple of more degrees before
sunrise, but only mid 70s will be attainable at best.

A much anticipated strong cold front is moving south across the
Central Plains and Missouri Valley this morning, and am closely
watching a few thunderstorms across central Kansas that have popped
up in the vicinity of this boundary.  The airmass across the Ozarks
is rather hostile at this point (00Z sounding tells the story) and
probably won`t improve much, so current expectations are for convection
to remain outside of the forecast area today, despite the frontal
passage.  Will continue to watch mesoscale/radar trends closely,
however.

Current timing brings the front through the area late morning into
mid day, late enough for temperatures to warm into the low 90s (not
that they have far to go given the warm start).  Highs will likely
be reached around noon or shortly thereafter, with cold air
advection this afternoon resulting in a slow fall into and through
the evening.  Along with cooler temperatures, much drier air will
also arrive with the front, with a noticeable drop in dewpoints
anticipated as we go through the afternoon today.

A cool night is then expected tonight across the region, as
overnight lows drop into the low 60s, with upper 50s possible in
some locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Today`s cold FROPA will set the stage for a very pleasant
workweek, with highs through the remainder of the coming week only
warming into the low to perhaps mid 80s. Overnight lows will fall
into the upper 50s and low 60s.

Despite the cooler and much less humid airmass, it does appear that
there will be at least a couple of chances for much needed rainfall
later in the week.  The first will arrive Wednesday, as an area of
precipitation develops across the central and southern Plains,
clipping mainly the western and southern portion of the forecast
area. Additional chances for isolated to scattered
showers/occasional thunderstorms will then arrive later in the week,
as a reinforcing shot of cold air aloft results in enough
diurnally driven instability to develop some convection.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight as a cold front pushes south across the area.

A dry frontal passage is expected with surface winds shifting to
the northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster





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