Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 080043

743 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015

...More Torrential Rain and Flooding Late Tonight and Wednesday...

Issued at 730 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

Intermittent light showers continued late this afternoon in the
wake of the torrential rainfall this morning. However this break
in the heavy rainfall will be temporary.

A shortwave trough over the Red River Valley will lift northeast
and track into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri
Wednesday morning. Meanwhile the surface front or effective boundary
had sagged into northern Arkansas while the 925 MB front
stretched across the Missouri/Arkansas border.

The low level jet will strengthen tonight in response to the
approaching shortwave and interact with the 925 MB front.
Increasing moisture transport and convergence will set up across
southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas late tonight while upper
level diffluence increases.

The result will be an increase in the coverage and intensity of
showers and thunderstorms late tonight mainly after midnight into
Wednesday morning.

A rich theta-e axis, precipitable water values near 2.25 inches,
and a deep warm layer will lead to torrential rainfall rates.

Additional heavy rainfall will impact areas here flooding occurred
today. Heavy rainfall is also expected across the remainder of the
Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas.

The exact track of the shortwave and evolution of convective
development are not yet determined and this will impact the
location of heaviest rainfall. In any event all of the Missouri
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas have the potential for torrential
rainfall and flooding.

Emergency managers, response agencies and all area interests should
closely monitor the latest weather information through the night
and be prepared for flash flooding.

As observed today, flooding may impact areas where flooding is
more rare.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

Surface front currently extends roughly along the I-44 corridor into
a surface low over southwest Missouri. An MCV was also located
along the Red River in southwestern Oklahoma.

Convection had begun to move southeastward into Arkansas late this
morning but now appears to be edging slowly northward again over
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  The H8 winds to the south of
the frontal zone are still in the 20-30 kt range over this same area.

The surface front should continue to make its way southward to the
Missouri-Arkansas border by this evening before stalling out.  As the MCV
approaches the region tonight and the low level jet sets up again
this storms and resultant heavy rain will
continue overnight. The heaviest rainfall amounts should occur in an
area from the Missouri-Arkansas border to the I-44 corridor and
occurring between 1AM-1PM.

The focus of the heavy rain will gradually shift northward following
the front on Wednesday as the upper wave moves across and a surface
low moves up the front.  The axis of heavier rain will gradually
move north of the I-44 corridor over areas that have also seen
substantial rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The surface front will remain in the area through Friday but an
upper level ridge begins to build in and retrograde to the west.
While rain is still in the forecast...current QPF is indicating
less than three-quarters of an inch from Wednesday night into

Once high pressure builds in...will have a dry spell for the
weekend with a return to more seasonal temperatures. There will be
a chance for more rain toward the end of the forecast period as we
get into a northwest flow situation on the eastern side of the
upper level ridge.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 730 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through the period as low
level cloudiness and rainfall will cause ceilings and visibility
issues across all terminals.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR MOZ055>058-

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.



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