Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280533

1133 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure is currently located over the central U.S.
with an upper level trough over the east coast and upper level
ridge along the west coast. Cool conditions are occurring today
with mid afternoon temperatures generally in the middle 30s to the
lower 40s.

The area of high pressure will slide off to the east and southerly
winds will return across the area overnight into Friday.
Temperatures will likely drop quickly this evening with the high
overhead, but then steady off or rise overnight as the south winds
kick in.

A warming trend will start on Friday as the upper level ridge
moves east towards the region. Highs will warm into the 50s, with
portions of southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
approaching the 60 degree mark. Southerly winds will increase and
become gusty on Friday as the area of high pressure moves off to
the east and surface low pressure develops across the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper level ridge will build over the central U.S. on
Saturday. Low level moisture will start to spread into the region
Friday night into Saturday resulting in a stratus cloud deck
across the region. There could be some build down of this stratus
deck resulting in patchy fog Saturday morning. There will also be
some weak isentropic lift across the area and could see some
patchy drizzle overnight Friday into Saturday morning. With the
warmer air mass and increasing clouds lows will be in the 40s
Friday night. Temperatures will likely be slow to warm on Saturday
as clouds blanket the area but the clouds will eventually clear
Saturday afternoon and temperatures will shoot well into the 60s.

The warm conditions will remain into Sunday as lows only drop into
the 50s Saturday night and highs once again warm into the 60s on
Sunday. May have to watch for the low level clouds developing
again Saturday night into Sunday morning as low level moisture
continues to spread into the region.

An upper level shortwave trough will then track east across the
northern plains into the great lakes region Sunday into Sunday
night. This will push a cold front through the region late Sunday
into Sunday night. The mid levels of the atmosphere will be dry and
think will keep the precipitation light but low level moisture
will remain higher and think there will be some showers along the
front as it passes through the region. There will also be some
light rain or drizzle that occurs behind the front overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. Will have to watch how quickly
temperatures drop behind the front to see if any freezing rain
will be possible or not. This will be brief and not expected a
lot of impacts as drier air in the low levels will spread into the
region behind the front limiting the precipitation potential
farther behind the front.

Chilly conditions can be expected Sunday night into Monday night
as lows drop into the 20s and highs warm into the 30s behind the
front. A warming trend will then occur into the middle of the week
with highs warming back into the 40s and 50s by Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main aviation impact through Friday evening will be strong low
level wind shear both tonight and again Friday night due to a
strong low level jet stream over the region. Brisk southerly to
southwesterly surface winds are also expected, with gusts around
30 knots from mid morning through late afternoon on Friday. No
clouds are expected with VFR prevailing through Friday evening.




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