Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 021838
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

The slow moving cold front that brought heavy rainfall to much of
the Ozarks over had moved south of the region this morning. only a
few lingering shower were still impacting portions of south
central Missouri early this afternoon. While the rain had shifted
south of the area, the residual cloud cover is helping to keep
temperatures from climbing very quickly.

Most locations were only in the middle 60s to middle 70s at 1 pm.
As a result of the persistent rainfall south of the region and the
expected continuation of the cloud cover over the region, have
knock from 5-8 degrees off of this afternoons forecast high
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southward early this
morning across from extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Expect this trend to continue as the low level gradually
veers and a minor shortwave traverses to the east. The flash flood
risk will continue early this morning generally south of highway
60.

Expect most if not all of the activity to diminish by midday but
cannot rule additional development this afternoon mainly from
southeastern Kansas into far southern Missouri in closer proximity
to the residual outflow boundary.

This boundary will lift north tonight as a warm front as the low
level jet once again asserts itself. Expect scattered convection
to develop tonight on the nose of this low level jet as it
interacts with the warm front. It appears development will be
focused from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. A few
strong storms along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Very warm and humid weather will return Wednesday through Friday
as the upper level ridge expands northward. Cannot rule out lingering
isolated convection Wednesday mainly from central Missouri into
the eastern Ozarks as as the warm front lifts north of the area.

A shortwave trough tracking east along the Canadian border will
push a cold front southward into the region Friday. This will
result in an increasing chance for showers an thunderstorms. The
chance of showers will persist into part of Saturday as the front
pushes to the south.

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region behind
the front this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

diminishing showers have left cloud cover across the region. While
the region is expected o remain overcast trough the forecast
period, ceilings should be VFR. A few showers or periods of light
rain will also be possible late in the evening and during the
overnight hours as additional convection develops across eastern
Kansas and shift east into the Ozarks. This activity will be on a
waning trend as it moves into the Ozarks though. A period of MVFR
visibilities is anticipated for Wednesday morning as cool
temperatures move over saturated ground. The limitations to
visibility will improve quickly however.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch







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