Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 032027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Much Colder Temperatures Arriving the Middle of Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Rain will gradually develop and increase from the south into this
evening as the lower atmospheric column moistens in advance of an
approaching mid level trough and isentropic upglide develops.
Expect widespread light rain overnight with amounts around a
quarter of an inch or less. A few snow flakes mixed with the rain
cannot be ruled out overnight across the eastern Ozarks given the
lower wet bulb temperatures. However no accumulation or impacts
are expected as temperatures remain above freezing.

The rain will come to and end from the west Sunday as the mid
level trough makes its way across the region and a weak front
pushes across the area. Cloud cover will linger much of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

The upper level low across northwest Mexico will begin to push
eastward across the Rio Grande Valley late Sunday and into Monday
before opening up into a shortwave. At the surface, a weak low
pressure system will develop across the western Gulf of Mexico and
move northeastward into central Kentucky by noon on Tuesday.
Additional light rain showers will be possible late Monday and
into Tuesday as the low slides to our southeast. The
north/northeast flow will be moderated by the lack of a decent
snowpack upstream, so thermals will be too warm for anything

As we progress into Wednesday, a sharp Arctic front will blast
through the region. Models have come into better agreement
regarding the light snow potential on Wednesday as an upper level
disturbance pushes through the region. QPF values appear to be
quite low for now, though some light accumulation is looking
better with each new model run.

Globals are no doubt pretty cold in the long range and beyond. GFS
has trended even colder and match the ECMWF pretty well at this
point for late next week. ECMWF continues to funnel well below
average temperatures into our region through next weekend. In
fact, it shows many days of below freezing temperatures for our
area. GFS isn`t far off with the warmest temperatures being next
Saturday, and those are only around 40 degrees at best.
Regardless, confidence is there for a below average early to mid


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Pilots can expect a gradual deterioration of flight conditions
through tonight. Ceilings will gradually lower with rain
increasing from the south. Expect MVFR conditions to become
prevalent tonight into Sunday morning with low ceilings and lower
visibility in light rain and fog.




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