Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 080807
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
207 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...It Will Look and Feel Like Winter Today Across Much of the
Missouri Ozarks...Windy and Cold With Scattered Snow Showers...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0134 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

A strong deep upper level trough is currently swirling over the
Midwest and Great Lakes Region this morning. Gusty northwesterly
winds this morning is ushering in much colder weather along with
scattered light snow showers across portions of the area.
Temperatures will slowly fall during the day today with
temperatures in the lower 30s by this afternoon. Gusty winds up
to 35 to 45 mph can be expected especially areas along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor. This is where the wind advisory is
currently in effect.

Bands of scattered light snow showers will persist off and on
today across much of the Ozarks. Overall the snow showers will be
very light but there may be brief times where it will come down at
a higher rate. Very little to no accumulation expected. There may
be a light dusting to a couple tenths of an inch possible across
portions of Central Missouri into the Eastern Ozarks. A slick spot
of two can not be ruled out on roads or bridges today but
significant travel impacts are not expected.

Wind chills today will be in the teens and single digits. Snow
showers will end from west to east this evening and some clearing
of the clouds will occur from west to east by tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 0134 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

The main energy associated with the upper level trough begins to
move eastward out of our region on Tuesday. We will remain in a
deep northerly flow in the mid to upper levels. Temperatures will
remain below average and cold through mid week but the weather
will be dry. A dry airmass with breezy winds will be a fire
weather concern. See the fire weather section below for elevated
grassland fire conditions through midweek.

Slight height rises Thursday and Friday will allow temperatures to
moderate by to near seasonable levels. But recent model runs have
changed a little bit over the last 24 hours for end of the week
and next week. Guidance suggest the northerly flow will sharpen up
again by next weekend with another cold front moving through late
Friday.

A Canadian airmass will settle back in keeping temperatures on
the chilly side. There is some uncertainty by the end of the 7 day
period heading into early next week on guidance. GFS keeps the
area milder and dry while the latest ECMWF run shows a clipper
like system bringing some wintry precip to the area. Will lean
more with the ECMWF guidance with a chance of precip late Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Cold front pushed through during the past hour at SGF and
northwest winds kicked up into the 20 to 30 kt range. Strong
pressure gradient over the area will remain in place through the
night and much of Monday driving in the colder air mass. A few
snow showers will be possible periodically during the day Monday.
Have gone mostly with VFR ceilings, but could see some MVFR
ceilings during the afternoon Monday. Winds will however be the
main aviation hazard through the period and will likely see gusts
over 30kts at times, especially during the day Monday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for MOZ055-066>068-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA


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