Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 131125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
525 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Another dry cold front is poised to drop through the region today.
Pressure gradient will tighten ahead of it this morning and continue
into the early afternoon. This will result in southwest winds 15 to
25 mph with winds coming around to the west-northwest after
frontal passage. Winds will diminish between 21Z-00Z. With dry
airmass, warm temperatures in the upper 50s combined with the
strong winds and relative humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent
range will once again see elevated fire weather conditions, with
parameters just below red flag criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Northwest mid and upper level flow will continue through Friday with
a dry weather pattern and temperatures at or slightly below normal.
Overall pattern then under goes a change for the weekend as medium
range models suggest a more pronounced upper level trough will drop
southeastward this weekend allowing for surface cyclogenesis to take
place over Texas. This will likely spread moisture northward into
the area Saturday night giving us the next decent chance for some
widespread precipitation from Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Given expected lows in the middle 30s, there could be some snow
mixing in with the rain late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning but not expecting any impacts or even accumulation.

Some model differences show up for the early part of next week with
the speed of the next trough. GFS slower, keeping area in southwest
flow aloft, while ECMWF slides a sharp trough across the region.
Overall, blends keep dry conditions for this time frame along with a
slow warming trend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 516 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Gusty surface winds and low level wind shear will be the primary
concerns for aviators flying into the Ozarks region today. Under
VFR flight conditions, surface winds will gust a times to 25kt
through this afternoon and into the evening hours from the southwest
to west. Winds are expected to die off after 00z this evening.




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.