Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 272043
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Like last night and early today, another area of forcing will
develop along a nw-se oriented baroclinic zone ahead of subtle
shortwave moving southeast across the region. A band of precip
will move into the area late tonight toward 09z and then exit
toward midday/18z Saturday. Progged soundings support snow over
the eastern cwfa transitioning to rain or rain/snow over the west.
Expecting a healthier coating of snow over central/south central
MO compared to early this morning where sfc temperatures will be
somewhat colder. All-in-all still expecting some areas could see
between 0.5-1.0"of wet snow.

Precip will end by early afternoon with chilly temperatures,
although the far western cwfa could see some low 60s with less
clouds and being under less of an influence of the departing cold
air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The highly amplified upper level pattern over the CONUS will
transition to a more w-e zonal flow with milder temperatures. A
shortwave will push a sfc trough/"front" through the region Sunday
with modest chances for showers. Warm weather will continue as an
upper level ridge moves into the central U.S.. Guidance by the
mid/late week period indicates a frontal passage ahead of a
somewhat positively tilted upper level trough moving into the
Plains. Run-to-run consistency of guidance hasn`t been great. In
general, a more highly amplified upper level pattern is indicated
toward the end of the week with a slower sfc frontal approach.
The 12z GFS and GEM are faster with the fropa versus the ECMWF and
a middle of the road approach is reflected in the fcst with rain
shower/tstm chances increasing Wednesday into Thursday and early
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

As the first upper level system transits the area...IFR ceilings
are being replaced by cold air stratocumulus. Expect
predominately VFR ceilings this afternoon with occasion MVFR at
KBBG.

Tonight...a second upper level system makes its way across the
area. Winds will lighten up and veer around to a more
southeasterly direction. Models are tending to bring the
precipitation just to the east of the aerodromes after 06z. For
now...conditions appear to remain VFR with only a very slight
chance of rain mixed with snow after 08z. So...will not mention
in the TAFs at this time.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede






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