Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 142256

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
456 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

An upper level shortwave trough and associated cold front will
sweep through the region tonight. A few showers will be possible
this afternoon into this evening ahead of the system, but coverage
will be more isolated to scattered in nature.

The front will move southeast through the area later this evening
into Wednesday morning. Showers will develop along the front as it
spreads through the area. There may be just enough instability for
a few rumbles of thunder, but no severe weather is expected. A
few showers may linger across south central Missouri into
Wednesday afternoon, but most of the rain will end by mid day

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Mild conditions will occur Wednesday and Thursday as highs warm
into the middle 50s to the lower 60s.

Much warmer conditions will occur Friday as highs warm into the
middle to upper 60s ahead of another approaching system. Gusty
southwesterly winds will occur on Friday with gust around 40 mph
expected at times.

A cold front will move through the region Friday evening/night.
Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible as the
front sweeps through the region. Instability will be limited
enough that severe weather is not expected.

Highs in the 50s will occur behind the front each afternoon from
Saturday into Monday. Gusty northwesterly winds will occur behind
the front on Saturday and could gusts over 30 mph at times. A
drier air mass will overspread the front this weekend into early
next week. Lows Saturday and Sunday nights will drop into the
lower to middle 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 453 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Strong southwesterly low level jet will set up tonight with
showers becoming more widespread across the region after midnight.
There is some instability, so have thrown in some vcts wording in
the TAFS. Low level wind shear will occur at the 3 taf sites from
around 04z-15z with southwesterly winds around 2000 feet at 50
kts. A cold front will eventually push through the area with some
clearing by mid to late afternoon Wednesday.




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