Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 131713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1113 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Surface high pressure will sag south into the region today. Highs
will once again only warm into the 20s.

An upper level disturbance will dive southwest across the central
Plains and then across the area tonight and Sunday. A small band
of light snow will develop across far eastern Kansas into western
Missouri, generally along and west of Highway 65. Flurries will
be possible east of Hwy 65. This will a quick shot of snow with a
dusting to less than an inch of snowfall possible mainly along
and west of Hwy 65 Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday tonight through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

An upper level trough will spread south through the region Monday
into Tuesday. Ahead of the trough a band of snow will develop and
slide due south across the entire area early Monday morning into
Monday afternoon. Just like the snow on Sunday, this snow will
spread from north to south fairly quickly. Snowfall amounts of
around one inch will be possible along and north of Hwy 60, with a
dusting to less than an inch possible across far southern
Missouri Monday.

Surface high pressure and a cold air mass will spread across the
area Monday night into Tuesday. Lows both Monday and Tuesday
nights will drop well into the signal digits, and locations that
get snow on Monday could see temperatures drop to around zero both
nights. Highs on Tuesday will only warm into the teens. Brisk
northwesterly winds will occur Monday night helping to usher the
colder air mass into the region. Wind chill values of fifteen
below to ten below are expected Monday night and Tuesday morning,
and could result in the need of A Wind Chill Advisory. Wind
chills of ten below to zero will occur Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Highs will warm into the 20s on Wednesday afternoon.

An upper level ridge will start to build over the region late next
week resulting in a warmer conditions trend. Highs late week will warm
well into the 40s and may approach the 50 degree mark.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions will continue the rest of this afternoon into
tonight. A weather system will bring a quick round of light snow
or snow showers Sunday morning between 12z and 18z Sunday.
Ceilings and visibilities will drop to MVFR with the band of
light snow and have mentioned this potential with PROB30 groups in
the TAFs. Otherwise winds will start our northerly this afternoon
with a gradual shift to easterly this evening followed by
southeasterly by tomorrow morning between 5 and 10 knots.




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