Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141024 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Areas of light rain/drizzle/sprinkles have increased as moisture
spreads north into eastern KS and western MO. Sfc high pressure
centered over OH with a ridge extending into AR is blocking low
level moisture return into the eastern cwfa with a more easterly
fetch with dry air circulating around the sfc high. In the near
term better precip chances will be over the western half of the
cwfa, but chances will inch eastward as the sfc high gives way. In
any case, precip will be be light.

A low amplitude shortwave will eventually approach kicking the
front to the east tonight and through the cwfa Wed. Could be a
rumble of thunder late tonight and Wed with some modest mucape.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Will watch forecast trends for severe storm potential Fri night.

Thursday-early Friday: Sfc high pressure will nose it`s way south
into the area Wed night and Thu. The sfc ridge then shifts east
late in the day Thu and Thu night, and we will see a repeat of
moisture return, initially over eastern OK into eastern KS and far
western MO before shifting eastward later Thu night and Fri.
Meanwhile, an elevated mixed layer/cap is progged to spread
northeast into the region. Drizzle/light showers should be the
general rule during this time as stratus underneath the cap
spreads into the area. The pressure gradient tightens up, possibly
enough to support advisory criteria winds Fri, but cloud cover
might play a role in keeping gusts down.

Friday Night-Saturday Morning: Still have some timing
differences, but a cold front is expected to pass through the
area at some point. The GFS and GDPS are faster versus the ECMWF.
In any case should see upper 50s/maybe low 60s dew points ahead
of the front with 60-65kts 0-6km shear. With a shortwave digging
back into the central Rockies and High Plains Fri night, there
isn`t much of a mechanism to cool temperatures off aloft and for
the most part guidance keeps some semblance of a cap in place
ahead of the front. A narrow ribbon of modest mlcape right along
the front along with frontal forcing look to be the main
mechanisms for convection and that doesn`t look too impressive at
this point. The front does sharpen up as the shortwave starts to
eject eastward, but even with the slower ECMWF, that seems to
occur as it exits off to our east. Will maintain the message of
storms being possible Fri night but confidence is too low to carry
strong/severe wording. We still have plenty of time to watch
forecast trends.

Later Saturday-Monday - Looks dry. Clouds could linger for a time
behind the front Saturday. Sfc high pressure moves through Sunday
then south winds develop Monday as the ridge shifts south and
east. Temperatures look to be a little below normal Sunday and
near or slightly milder than normal Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Ceilings will lower overnight and into Tuesday as an upper level
disturbance pushes in from the west. Areas of drizzle will also
develop and persist into Tuesday. MVFR conditions are expected
over most of southern Missouri by sunrise with the MVFR then
persisting over most areas into Tuesday evening. There is some
potential for IFR around Joplin by Tuesday evening, however
confidence remains on the low side.

Surface winds will remain out of the south to southeast through
Tuesday evening and gradually increase. Low level wind shear
conditions will also develop around sunset.




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