Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 260519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1119 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Temperatures are below normal for a change today as a Canadian sfc
ridge of high pressure moves into eastern KS/western MO with the
center of the sfc high over southern OK. Winds have remained
somewhat brisk, especially over the eastern cwfa, but they will
diminish as the ridge moves into our cwfa. Dew points in the
lower teens and single digits have kept the humidity down. The
wind/humidity combo have resulted in a somewhat elevated fire
danger over the the eastern cwfa.

Winds will continue to diminish early tonight then switch to the
south as the ridge moves off to the east. Temperatures will tank
in the evening, then may level off late tonight as the south wind
starts to increase.

Milder weather is expected Sunday with south winds continuing.
Increased low/midlevel moisture and lift could result in some
light rain/sprinkles, but the precip will fight dry low level air.
If precip develops early, could see some snow flakes given the
cold temperatures/low wet bulbs. Nothing major.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The pattern looks a little more active early next week.

Monday: Persistent south winds Monday will bring up more abundant
moisture with a continued chance for light rain at times. Rising
midlevel heights ahead of trough digging into into the southwest
U.S. will limit instability, so we are just expecting overall
light precip amounts.

Tuesday: The western upper trough will shift east with sfc low
pressure moving into the Plains. S-SW winds will become gusty
(30-35 mph gusts) Tue with warm temperatures once again to end
February. The best chances for rain this week will occur late Tue
and Tue night as the sfc front moves through. Instability, at
least modest and somewhat elevated mucapes approaching 1000 j/kg
(GFS output near KUNO) will occur over the eastern cwfa ahead of
the front, so will maintain thunder in the fcst and continue to
monitor fcst trends for possible stronger convection given the
strong winds aloft/bulk shear.

Wednesday-Saturday: Looks dry in the wake of the front as high
pressure gradually moves into the area from the west Wed-Thu then
shifts off to the east Fri with south-southwest winds kicking in
to end the week. Low daytime RH and winds will combine to produce
an elevated fire danger at times.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Clear sky will give way to some mid and high level clouds
overnight and winds will gradually pick up out of the southeast
with the high pressure center exiting to the east. An upper level
shortwave will move in on Sunday and will bring some light rain to
the area by late morning into the mid afternoon hours.




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