Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 301723
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
...18z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted over the Ozarks
Region into the early morning hours. This activity was occurring in
response to the presence of an upper level weakness.
Additional thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level
shear axis remains in place across southern Missouri. As
temperatures warm into the 80s by mid day, most unstable capes
will exceed 2,000 j/kg. With the lack of deep shear, we don`t
think there is much risk for severe storms.
The shear axis doesn`t move much into tonight. Therefore there
should be a slight chance for some rain along or near this
feature. Most locations will remain dry today and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Next week is looking warmer and drier than previously thought.
While there are indications of an upper level weakness caught
underneath a mean ridge, this feature could be too weak to focus
much rain into the Ozarks. Therefore we are forecasting some very
conservative rain chances for several days.
Temperatures will warm as humidity increases this week with highs
in the upper 80s on an afternoon basis. Look for dew points to
persist in the middle to upper 60s. Therefore heat indices may try
to push the middle 90s on some of these afternoons.
Neither the GFS or the ECMWF indicate any significant weather
through the next several days.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across the
Missouri Ozarks. Have included a mention of VCSH for JLN between
21z to 02z and VCTS for SGF and BBG. The better potential for
scattered convection will be closer to BBG and have included a
tempo group from 21z to 02z with a brief -TSRA and MVFR
conditions. Skies will return to mostly clear tonight through
tomrorow morning. Winds will remain southerly and light.