Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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439
FXUS63 KSGF 241926
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A few isolated showers and storms developed across the western
half of the area this afternoon as a warm and moist airmass
remains across the area. Most areas however will remain dry
through the afternoon and evening hours.

The area remains in between an upper level high to our east and a
large upper level low over Wyoming. Therefore the flow is
primarily parallel ahead of a cold front across Kansas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight across western
Missouri and southeast Kansas as the main upper low remains to the
west.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur during the
day on Sunday as the cold front pushes through the region. While
some instability will develop during the day Sunday, wind shear
will be lacking due to the orientation of this system therefore
severe weather is not expected. Rainfall amounts still look light
with most places receiving less than an inch.

Models are in decent agreement on this and confidence in the
forecast through Sunday is high.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A few showers and storms will remain possible behind the front
Sunday night before ending by Monday morning.

The main theme of next week will be dry and seasonable weather as
a northwest to west flow will develop overhead. Highs in the 70s
and lows in the 40s to around 50 will make an appearance for most
of the week. Confidence is high in the forecast for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the forecast
period. Scattered afternoon cumulus will persist Today. Winds
will remain southerly around 5-10 kts. A cold front will slowly
edge toward the area Overnight and through the day on Sunday
providing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Included in the
JLN TAF however will leave out of the SGF and BBG TAFs for now
since it likely won`t occur until the end of the forecast period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield



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