000
FXUS63 KSGF 152333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AS HAS BEEN STATED MORE THAN A FEW TIMES...QUITE THE MESSY
FORECAST FOR THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER KS/OK HAS
SPARKED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
STORM INTENSITY HAS COME DOWN A BIT AS WE HAVE SPENT A BIT OF THE
AVAILABLE CAPE BUDGET. CAPE AND MARGINAL DEEP SHEAR (30KT GIVE OR
TAKE) STILL DO SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS POSSIBLE. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPORADIC AND WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.

DEFINITELY OBSERVING EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION WITH THESE
STORMS. WHILE THE INCREDIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SOUTH
SPRINGFIELD ARE THE ANOMALY (BY FAR)...WE ARE STILL OBSERVING
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

EXPECTATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE FOR STORMS TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AFFECT (MAINLY) AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM CASSVILLE TO MARSHFIELD TO SALEM. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN RATHER LOCALIZED. DEFINITELY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. AT THIS TIME...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THOUGH WITH SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
LIFT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. IT
IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS
FORWARD PROPAGATING STORM MOTION VECTORS POINT INTO OUR REGION. A
SEVERE WIND RISK IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS MCS AND IT WILL BE
SOMETHING WE WATCH CLOSELY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY (THOUGH TEMPORARILY) MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING (TEMPORARILY) A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AGAIN DURING MIDWEEK THIS FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WARMING TREND IS IN THE OFFING
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 90S DURING THE DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS CREATING A
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSRA IN KSGF/KJLN UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z AND
THROUGH 06Z FOR KBBG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEYOND THAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER THAT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GAGAN
LONG TERM...GAGAN
AVIATION...GAEDE