Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KSGF 241734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Low pressure system continues to deepen over the High Plains of
southeast Colorado early this morning, keeping a stout south wind
over the forecast area. Area VAD wind profilers show strong low
level jet winds of 40 to 50 knot at 925 mb. Storm development has
remained well to our west in vicinity of a dry line over western
KS/OK, and along the warm front over NE/IA.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Storm chances and winds have been the focus in the short term
forecast. First, along with our neighboring offices to the
southwest and west, we will be issuing a wind advisory for this
morning as strong low level jet winds mix down to the surface.
Will need to have later shifts assess whether or not an extension
is needed, but the latest forecast trends back off wind speeds
this afternoon.

Short term models continue to generate storms over our western
counties during the late morning/early afternoon time frame.
There`s increasing upper level diffluence over the region but a
decent capping inversion and little in the way of surface
convergence until later in the afternoon. So overall timing of
storm initiation remains a little questionable. Have started pops
in the grids a little earlier over our western counties but have
slowed the eastward progress of the precipitation. By mid to late
evening, will carry high pops all areas as main low pressure
system approaches the region and cap gradually erodes. Severe
storms remain possible with straight-line winds being the main
threat. Instability looks fairly marginal through tonight which
should limit hail potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Low pressure will be over the region Saturday morning so will
keep precipitation going through the afternoon before tapering off
in the evening as the storm system weakens and lifts northeast of
the Ozarks.

Looks like there will be additional chances for showers and storms
through the rest of the work week as a wave train of storm
systems moves across the central U.S. The next system to move
across the area will arrive Sunday night and move quickly across
the region on Monday. A deeper and slower moving system will drop
southeast from the Pacific northwest into the four corners region
on Tuesday and drift eastward into the southern Plains by
Wednesday night or Thursday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Showers/tstms are expected to increase in
coverage over the next few hours as a strong storm system moves
east through the Plains. Generally VFR conditions with MVFR/ocnl
IFR visibility in showers will continue in the near term, but
expect more predominate MVFR/IFR conditions with a line/band of
showers/tstms that will move west-east through the area 21z-03z.
Scattered showers will continue to be possible for the remainder
of the taf period as a cold core upper level low moves into the


MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ066-077>081-

KS...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.



AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.