Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 261153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Similar
conditions to the past 24 hours are expected with a warm front
north of the area. An unstable air mass is in place and
thunderstorms are possible but it`s hard to determine timing and
placement. Overall better chances will be north and northeast of
the taf sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






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