Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 200651
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
151 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Very mild temperatures across the area early this morning will
allow the area to launch to 90 or slightly above for highs Today.
Models try to pool some low to mid 70 dewpoints across western
portions of the area today ahead of an approaching front. Heat
indicies will approach 100 for many locations Today and it will
feel uncomfortable. Steady southerly winds around 20mph will be
welcome.

A weak mid level vort across the Red River Valley will slowly move
east northeast and may throw an isolated shower/storm across far
south central missouri east of West Plains this afternoon. Hi res
models do show this potential however better chances are to the
south and east.

Models are in good agreement that the surface front will make it
to about a Kansas City to Wichita line by late afternoon and
evening before slowing down due to energy being pulled well north
and away from our area. Most models except for the GFS keep all
precip to the west and north of the area closer to the front.
Examining forecast soundings for early this evening shows that the
area ahead of the front will be very unstable however capped,
therefore storms will have to be tied to the front, which appears
will not make it into our area due to the shortwave energy moving
rapidly northeast into the Dakotas and Minnesota. Have kept very
slight pops across SE Kansas and portions of West/Central Missouri
this evening incase storms are able to make it a little further
east, like the GFS suggests. SPC storm scale ensemble of
opportunity plots show best percentages across the Kansas City
area and to the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The Thursday through Sunday period will feature a long wave trough
across the western US and our area will be under a ridge of high
pressure. With no real change in 850mb temps, thinking that highs
will be close to 90 for the rest of the week, perhaps into the
first part of the weekend. No precipitation is expected. GFS and
EURO then show the trough moving east toward our area by early
next week, which will bring our next chance of widespread precip
and cooler temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will occur at
the TAF sites tonight through the day on Wednesday.

Winds will be out of the south to southeast and will become gusty
Wednesday morning and afternoon. Low level wind shear will also be
a concern at the TAF sites tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise



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