Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192206
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede




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