Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

A couple of subtle shortwaves produced some isolated
showers/thunderstorms earlier. An area mid/upper level clouds over
the the KS/OK/MO/AR four state area is all that is left of
earlier convection off to our west. Very warm temperatures for
this time of year occurred today and will continue for a few more
with no major cold frontal passages on the horizon.

Overall larger scale upper level ridging/higher heights will
likely suppress additional widespread rain chances during this
period. A sfc trough now over the central High Plains will shift
east tonight and Wednesday, but gradually weaken as it moves into
NW MO and the Flint Hills of eastern KS. We will continue to carry
some small rain/tstms chances, mostly in our nw counties late
tomorrow and tomorrow night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The overall pattern will continue to amplify over the next few
days with a large upper level trough over the western CONUS and a
large ridge over the east. Our area will be on the western side
of this large upper level area of high pressure through the
weekend with very warm/muggy conditions. There is good general
agreement with guidance that the western trough will shift east
enough to allow some rain chances into the area early next week,
likely favoring our western counties versus the east.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 515 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at
the TAF sites this evening through the day Wednesday.

South to southeast winds will occur through the TAF period. Winds
will become gusty later this evening through much the day
Wednesday. Low level wind shear concerns could occur at the KJLN
and KSGF sites tonight.




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