Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 090507

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Issued at 0652 PM CST MON FEB 08 2016

Getting some reports of minor accumulations and slick spots
developing in Lebanon with a quick burst of snow. Have updated the
grids to include some minor accumulations to go with the scattered
snow showers we already had going and will update the HWO/ZFP
shortly for this.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 0245 PM CST MON FEB 08 2016

Confidence level medium to high through Tuesday. Strong northwest
winds gusting to near 40 mph along with scattered snow showers has
made for a rather raw day across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Some light accumulations were being reported across
central Missouri down into the eastern Ozarks with some of the
more intense snow showers, where visibilities drop below a mile
for a short period of time this morning. Expect these snow showers
to continue into the evening, especially over the eastern Ozarks
before diminishing. Despite somewhat higher relative humidities,
the combination of cured vegetation and the strong winds will
create elevated fire conditions at least through the remainder of
the afternoon. All in all expect a slow improvement tonight with
winds diminishing and the snow showers ending and clearing
beginning to work its way into the region from the west. However,
with temperatures bottoming out in the teen to lower 20s, will see
wind chills drop into the single digits above zero by Tuesday

A cold but quiet day is expected on Tuesday. Highs look to only be
in the 30s which are some 10 degrees below seasonal normals, and
with a blustery north wind will keep wind chills in the teens and
20s most of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 0245 PM CST MON FEB 08 2016

This period will be characterized by a dry northerly flow with
generally at or below normal temperatures and little in the way of
precipitation chances.

Pattern remains amplified on Wednesday with ridging to the west and
troughing east. Dry, cold northerly flow will continue across
Missouri and indications are relative humidities will again drop
during the afternoon and result in elevated fire weather conditions.
Models depicting a surface low to track southeast across the Plains
Wednesday night, but only weather expected is a wind shift as
atmosphere remains dry. Otherwise, slow moderation in temperatures
expected Thursday and Friday as western ridge edges east with rising
heights over Missouri.

Pattern then amplifies again for the weekend as western conus ridge
sharpens and deep mid level low digs into the northeast conus.
This will allow another surge of cold air to drop into the area
once again Saturday with readings back below normal. There are
some indications in the medium range models of bringing a
shortwave trough through the flow late in the weekend into early
next week, bringing a chance for some precipitation back to the
area, but confidence not high on this scenario.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST MON FEB 08 2016

Winds have diminished some from what we had earlier today but will
still remain gusty throughout the night and into Tuesday with a
fairly tight pressure gradient remaining. Have lost the 5-6kft
ceilings we had earlier at the TAF sites and should only see some
mid/high level clouds at the terminals throughout the forecast
period. So expecting VFR conditions through the period.


Issued at 245 PM CST MON FEB 08 2016

Still expecting fire weather concerns through this evening as strong
northwest winds continue. Relative humidity values will not be close
to Red Flag criteria, but The lack of recent precipitation has made
dormant fuels and even forest litter fuels quite dry. Fire spread
will be a concern if a natural cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very low
dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty northwest
winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but the RH will
continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
FIRE WEATHER...DSA/Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.