Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 012314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
514 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

A sunny but cool afternoon was ongoing across the region.
Temperatures were mostly in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees all
across far southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks as a
surface high pressure system dominates.

Overnight, the high pressure should begin to slide eastward, which
will cause our surface winds to back southerly by morning. With a
slight uptick in cloud cover, temperatures over southeast KS and
far southwest Missouri will likely only drop into the lower 30s
overnight tonight.

Friday, a trough digs southward across northwestern Mexico and
closes off. This will allow for heights to rise a bit, which will
help increase temperatures somewhat on Friday (50s instead of
40s). Cloud cover will gradually increase across the remainder of
the area through the day and into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

As the upper low across northwest Mexico begins to slowly slide
eastward with time, the first of a series of mid level impulses
will slide through the region late Friday and into early Saturday.
Light precipitation will begin to spread across the CWA through
the morning and into the afternoon and evening. Again, only light
amounts expected given the somewhat dry boundary column above us
that will need to be moistened. As for precipitation type on
Saturday, think much of the precipitation will be liquid as
boundary layer temps remain above freezing mostly with a
relatively high wet bulb zero. Further north across central MO,
the dry air may be just enough to allow for some mixed precip
(rain, sleet, or wet snow), however, low level warm air advection
will quickly change anything over to all liquid with no impacts
expected anywhere in our CWA.

The best rain chances will be from Saturday afternoon through
early Sunday morning as the initial impulse lifts north and east
toward the Ohio River Valley. This will allow for more ridging
aloft before the pesky upper level low pressure is finally kicked
north and eastward toward the Mid South Region. This will once
again increase rainfall potential late Monday and on into Tuesday.
A surface low is forecast to develop over southeast Texas and
slide north and east into the Lower MS River/Ohio River Valleys
early Tuesday. This places our region in the synoptically proper
location for snowfall, however, thermals appear to be a bit too
warm, even with what`s left of the cold core ULL moving overhead.
As drier and colder air move into the region late Wednesday, can`t
rule out some wet snowflakes mixing in as the preciptiation comes
to an end, though this activity will be extremely light. No
impacts expected at the moment.

The remainder of next week appears to be well below average in
terms of temperatures. Thursday looks like the coldest day we`ve
had in quite some time with highs at the moment only warming a
degree or two above freezing. Raw ECMWF numbers are even lower
with highs not even getting out of the 20s. If trend continues, we
will no doubt need to lower max temperatures for that timeframe.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Light and variable winds at the surface are expected all night and
into Friday morning. Meanwhile, scattered high level clouds will
pass overhead from time to time.

No obstructions to visibilities or low ceilings are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.




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