Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
236 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

...The Mild Weather will Continue with Chance of Storms Wednesday...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The mild Autumn weather will continue tonight into Wednesday as a
cold front approaches the region. The front extending from the
southern High Plains into the upper midwest Tuesday afternoon will
push southeastward and enter the Ozarks region Wednesday.
Scattered convection will develop across the Plains tonight as
the low level jet interacts with the front. This activity could
make it into southeastern Kansas and west central Missouri late
tonight into early Wednesday morning.

A shortwave trough accompanying the front will makes its way
across the region during the day Wednesday. An increase in low
level moisture will occur ahead of the front with modest
instability developing. Mixed layer CAPE of around 1000 J/KG is
progged with deep layer shear of 30 to 40 kts. However relatively
weak synoptic scale lift and a veering wind profile will be
limiting factors to thunderstorm coverage and severity. However a
few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out mainly
across far southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The mild weather will continue into Thursday despite the frontal passage.
Even warmer temperatures can be expected Friday as gusty southerly
winds return and an upper level ridge of high pressure expands
eastward. Highs Friday will top 80 degrees at most locations.

The dry and warm weather pattern will persist into the weekend
with daily highs in the 70s. A frontal passage may bring a chance
of showers to the area Tuesday. Model solutions vary going into
the middle and later part of next week ranging from a continuation
of the relatively quiet weather or potentially a more active
weather pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: An upper level disturbance is
currently push east into the Plains early this afternoon. Ahead
of this disturbance, upper level clouds are overspreading the
region and will remain over the area into the overnight hours.
Mid level clouds will start to move into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning, but will remain well with in the VFR category .
Winds will be out of the south to southeast during through the TAF

The disturbance will continue to spread east overnight into
Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and storms will be possible
across western Missouri Wednesday morning ahead of the
disturbance and an approaching cold front. The front will not pass
through the TAF sites until after the TAF period.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.