Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 182014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
314 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

...Warm and Windy Wednesday...Very Wet with Heavy Rainfall
Possible End of the Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Low stratus clouds burned off to a fairly nice and warm
afternoon. Partly cloudy skies with fair weather cumulus  clouds
are being observed across the Missouri Ozarks region. Tonight will
be another pleasant and uneventful night weather wise across the
area. There could be some very light fog potential across south
central Missouri but short term models are not very bullish on
that potential. There should be just enough of a breezy to keep
that potential very low. A surface low will develop and deepen
across the Central Plains Wednesday afternoon. Gusty southerly
winds up to 35 mph will be possible and high temperatures warming
up into the lower to middle 80s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A cold front will begin to slowly move into the region late
Wednesday night across the Midwest and Central Plains region.
Scattered convection is expected to develop to our northwest
across Kansas and slowly move into our direction Wednesday night.
This convection will be on the weakening trend by the time it
reaches our area. There may be a marginal risk for an isolated
strong storm or two across our far northwestern areas with small
hail and gusty winds.

The front will be near the I-44 corridor by early Thursday
afternoon. Afternoon heating ahead of the front may develop
limited instability and again a marginal risk for isolated strong
storm or two. This risk would be areas southeast of I-44 late
Thursday afternoon. The front briefly pushes into northern
Arkansas by Thursday night before stalling out.

The boundary will begin to very slowly move northward or stay
pretty much stalled somewhere near the Missouri/Arkansas border.
Rich moisture flow riding over the boundary will keep rain chances
high with isolated thunder all day Friday into Friday night and
Saturday. The main upper level system will move over the Ozark
Region during the day on Saturday. Temperatures will be cool both
Friday and Saturday with some indication that we might see
temperatures steading in the upper 40s to lower 50s during the
day on Saturday.

The whole system begins to exit the region Saturday night from
west to east. Widespread storm total rainfall from Thursday
through Saturday will likely be between 2 and 4 inches of rainfall
with localized isolated higher amounts up to 5 inches possible
somewhere across southwestern Missouri. There is increasing
potential for some flooding issues on area creeks and streams as
well as elevated water levels on low water crossings.

Nicer and drier weather returns Sunday into early next week with
temperatures back to seasonable averages.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Pilots can expect lingering MVFR ceilings this afternoon but a
gradual improvement as the afternoon progresses. VFR conditions
are expected at area terminals tonight through Wednesday.
Southerly winds will increase Wednesday with occasional surface
gusts over 20 kts.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.