Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

For the KSGF(Springfield), KJLN(Joplin), and KBBG(Branson) TAFS:
VFR conditions and light winds will occur this morning into early
this afternoon. Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread
across the region as ceilings will lower this afternoon into this
evening as a storm system approaches the region from the
southwest.

Rain, snow, and or a rain snow mix will overspread the TAF sites
late this afternoon into this evening, then will continue into the
overnight hours. There could be pockets of sleet within this
activity, but think any sleet will generally be short lived in
nature.

Minor snow accumulations will be possible late this afternoon into
tonight at the KSGF and KJLN TAF sites. Late tonight the snow will
begin to taper off and drizzle or freezing drizzle will be
possible. Will have to really watch temperatures as they will
likely be close to or at freezing Thursday morning. Any ice
accumulations will be very minor and the chances for freezing
drizzle will be better to the north of the TAF sites where
temperatures will be colder.

IFR ceilings will develop overnight and IFR visibilities will be possible
within any snow that develops. this evening and tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






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