Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 202343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains through Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build southward
into the region but low levels will remain moist. Patchy light fog
could develop overnight and may be included in later forecast.
Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing
temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

The cool weather will persist Friday as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Ohio River Valley. A minor shortwave
trough swinging into the Plains along with increasing 850 MB
moisture transport and developing isentropic upglide will bring at
least scattered showers to southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri Friday. Rainfall amounts Friday will be light.

Warm air advection will begin in earnest Saturday as surface high
pressure shifts to the east coast and low pressure develops across
the high plains in advance of another broad upper level trough out
west. A continued increase in quality moisture will support scattered
convection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday with
activity more focused across the Plains. The eastern Ozarks may
remain mostly dry during the day Saturday.

The coverage of convection will increase Sunday into Monday as the
western troughs begins to lift east and northeast into the central
U.S. and the associated front edges southeastward. The slow
movement of the system along with the potential of multiple rounds
or training storms could lead to heavy rainfall totals Sunday and
Monday. The potential for heavy rainfall and resultant flooding
will have to be closely monitored Sunday and Monday especially
given the outdoor activities along recreational rivers.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional at this time with
uncertainty related to the amount of instability. The window for
strongest storms appears to be later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.

The wet weather appears it will linger Memorial Day as the front
makes its way or even stalls across the Ozarks. Models progg a
continuation of the active and wet weather pattern into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

High confidence that IFR conditions will continue overnight as
light northerly winds continue over the plateau. Drizzle is
possible this evening at SGF. Ceilings will continue to drop
overnight to LIFR as stratus builds down, especially at BBG and
SGF. Conditions look to improve to MVFR by late tomorrow morning
or early afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield





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