Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 281132
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.
While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.
Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.
Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.
Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
Surface cold front currently extending from a low over
southwestern MN across east-central NE into northern KS will make
its way into the area from late this afternoon into this evening.
Ahead of the front...winds will veer from the south to southwest
and be on the increase through the morning and will produce gusts
in the 15-20 kt range this afternoon.
Expect the convection that develops later today to be scattered in
nature in the vicinity of the aerodromes and will therefore keep
the PROB30 group for KSGF/KJLN. Some storms though...especially
north and east of the KSGF aerodrome...could reach severe limits
with strong winds and large hail being the primary threats. As
for the KBBG terminal...do not expect the front to be in the
vicinity until after sunset. By this time...the lack of moisture
and instability will make it more difficult to maintain convection
and so have made no mention of convection at this time.