Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 041724
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1124 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
Surface high pressure dominates our weather regime this morning.
The main axis of the surface high is exiting stage east with
southerly winds developing along/northwest of the Ozarks Plateau.
Temperatures have bounced around a bit so far this morning,
particularly in areas with snow/sleet cover. Low temperatures this
morning have generally been in the lower teens. Expectations are
for temperatures to continue to bounce around through sunrise
under a mainly clear sky.
Decent day on tap for the region as southerly winds and mainly
clear skies allow temperatures to warm into the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Temperatures could be a few degrees warmer,
particularly in central Missouri where less in the way of
sleet/snow cover exists.
00z suite of models are a bit slower with a disturbance slated to
move through the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night. As a
result, the increase in mid/high clouds will be delayed. This has
an impact on tonight`s low temperature forecast, especially in
areas of sleet/snow cover. Have trimmed a few degrees off low
temperatures in southern Missouri, where readings in the teens
should be common.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
As mentioned above, the 00z suite of model output still has a
shortwave progged to move through the region late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Interestingly, there is increased disagreement
amongst the models with this system this morning. The shortwave
itself is rather stout, but it will be encountering increasingly
confluent flow aloft and a wall of dry air. In addition, there is
disagreement on the exact track of this system. The NAM is
furthest north moving the wave across northern/central Missouri,
while the GFS/ECMWF have the core of this wave missing us to the
southwest and moving toward the Texarkana region. The amount of
variability with this system is rather remarkable given that we
are just 36 hours away from its arrival. Overall, have lowered
PoPs a bit as uncertainty has taken a hit. Have maintained the
"better" PoPs over the western third or so of the area as dry air
over the eastern portion of the Ozarks looks tough to budge. Could
see a dusting of snow across extreme southeastern Kansas and
portions of western Missouri, but it shouldn`t add up to too much.
Fair weather and a warming trend is expected on Thursday and
Friday. Should finally get temperatures back to around average on
00z suite of models also throwing a wrench into the forecast for
Friday night into Saturday. A split flow and cutoff of energy to
our southwest look to keep the main brunt of this system to our
southwest. This is a trend worth watching. Still a decent signal
for some light rain, but if trends continue to hold this wave off
to our southwest, we may not see much in the way of rainfall.
Differences in the model output grow from late in the weekend into
early next week. Much depends on how the cutoff upper low to our
southwest behaves. The GFS keeps this wave to our south while the
ECMWF swings it northeastward through the region. Fortunately both
solutions support temperatures near average.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday morning with
increasing high clouds. Light southerly winds today will become
easterly Wednesday morning.