000
FXUS63 KSGF 131949
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

A PLEASANT DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S WITH CLEAR
SKIES. GUSTY DIURNAL WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE WARMING TREND SEEN TODAY WILL CONTINUE AND AMPLIFY INTO
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION...SUPPORTING CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

THINGS WILL CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IS FINALLY EJECTED TO THE EAST BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS EJECTING LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN PUSHED INTO THE AREA BY
SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL WIND SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...AS WELL AS WIND SHEAR GIVEN THAT THE JET STREAM WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. SEVERE WEATHER MAY
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS REGIME. MORE WILL BECOME CLEAR
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD WITH THIS FORECAST. WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT ABOUT
1500-2000 FEET. WILL CONTINUE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE GUSTS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS
MIXING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KARDELL
LONG TERM...KARDELL
AVIATION...LINDENBERG