Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Upper level low pressure will remain cutoff from the main belt of
westerlies today up across the Corn Belt. With almost no change to
the pattern, persistence is the way to go with the forecast
through tonight. Dry weather will therefore continue today with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Perfect weather for the NWS
SGF Open House! Lows tonight will then be in the middle 50s to
lower 60s.

That low will finally get picked up and dive southeast on Sunday as
short wave energy moves southeast out of Manitoba. Despite a track
over Missouri, chances for precipitation look pretty low given an
overall lack of moisture. A rogue shower or sprinkle will be
possible, but most (if not all) areas will remain dry. Temperatures
will be very similar to those of Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Global models then continue to advertise strong short wave energy
emerging northeast across the central Plains and then northern
Plains on Tuesday. We continue to believe that this track is too
far to the northwest to bring appreciable chances for
precipitation to the Ozarks. Precipitation chances will then begin
to ramp up as we approach Wednesday night and Thursday as models
bring an amplified trough across the central United States.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the middle
of next week with highs generally in the lower 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s. That passing trough should then
support a cold front and cooler temperatures arriving for the late
week period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Only small
concern is with mid/upper level low now centered over western Iowa
and associated trough which extends southwestward from the low
into north central Oklahoma. All models begin to move this feature
southeastward tonight and into Sunday. Some widely scattered
showers are possible from Sunday midday into the afternoon,
however coverage should be relatively low, so will make no mention
of this in the TAFS for now. Winds will continue light from the
east-southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Browning/LSX





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