Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 141153
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday night)
A strong belt of westerlies was positioned overhead this morning
as a zonal flow structure was present over much of the lower 48.
Closer to the surface, high pressure had shifted east of the
Ozarks, allowing a return of southerly breezes. These southerly
winds combined with good sunshine today, will boost temperatures
into the 70s this afternoon. A dry air mass along with no forcing
features, will bring about dry weather today and tonight.
Rain chances will increase Monday morning as an upper speed max
passes to the north of the Ozarks. This positions the region
within the right entrance region of this jet max.
Meanwhile, a surface front will approach from the north, helping
to force showers and thunderstorms over southeast Kansas and
portions of the Ozarks Monday and Monday night.
Due to the lack of deep moisture and instability, severe storms
are not expected at this time.
Rain should end sometime Monday night as the front presses
southward into Oklahoma and Arkansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Fantastic weather is expected Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Skies
should be mostly sunny with northeasterly breezes.
The chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again Tuesday
night into Wednesday, as moisture advection impinges on a frontal
system laid out across Kansas. The GFS is the most bullish with
bringing this rainfall into the Ozarks. For now we will carry
anywhere from a 20 to a 40 percent chance for rain Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This may need to be increased with time, if
continued bullishness exists within the GFS.
Additional showers and storms can not be ruled out Wednesday night
into Thursday with a similar set up. The thought is that a low
level jet will help force convection in eastern Kansas and western
As we approach Friday and possibly next weekend, both the GFS and
ECMWF suggest that an upper level ridge will translate across the
nation`s mid section. This will bring 80 degree weather back to
the Ozarks, with little to no chances for rain.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR ceilings around 5-7k feet have
moved into an area near and just north of the taf sites in a zone
of lift/upglide on the west side of high pressure centered over IL
and expect those clouds to affect the taf sites early in the taf
period. Otherwise, sfc high pressure will shift east of the region
while low pressure and a cold front edge east from the High
Plains. Rain chances and lower ceilings will stay off to the west
through the end of the taf period.