000
FXUS63 KSGF 152345
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW
TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER WAS ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE
OZARKS.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS IN OKLAHOMA TO SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY PERCOLATE AS THE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING BUT WILL NOT
ENTIRELY DISSIPATE GIVEN THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE STRENGTHENS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND RESULTING DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BUT JUST HOW COOL WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER.

A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY ON
SUNDAY.

BY LATE SUNDAY...A STRONGER SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT TO OUR WEST ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
LATE SUNDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN SHOW FOR OUR AREA APPEARS NOW TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
MONDAY TIME FRAME. SPC HAS OUR AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A DAY 6 OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 3500 J/KG.
0-6KM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES NEAR 300 M2/S2. BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 50 KNOTS...A REINFORCING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IS INDICATING A POSSIBLE
ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STAY TUNE FOR TRENDS AND FUTURE
OUTLOOKS FOR THIS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWS
DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THIS WILL BE KEEP AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AREA BY MID WEEK. WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME
HYRDO CONCERNS FOR THE OZARKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY CHURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENTERED SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS BAND OF RAIN
WILL PERSIST...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
JLN/SGF/BBG...AND WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH ANOTHER SHIELD OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
IF THIS BATCH OF RAIN CAN SURVIVE...WILL NEED TO UPDATE TIME OF
ARRIVAL IN TAFS. GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT.
NOT QUITE READY TO BITE OFF ON THIS GIVEN AN OVERALL LACK OF IFR
LAST NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...GAGAN