Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192352
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)

It was an incredible day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s, under
mostly sunny skies and south winds.

A warm front was surging through the Ozarks, as dew points were
shooting up some 30 degrees in many locations.

A couple of thunderstorms were observed over central Missouri on
the edge of an elevated mixed layer. The elevated mixed layer will
deepen the rest of the afternoon and evening, capping off any
shower or thunderstorm potential the rest of today and tonight.

Mild temperatures are expected through tonight and into Monday
morning with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Be ready for highs in the middle 80s on Monday. Other than a
rogue thunderstorm or shower, dry conditions are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)

A frontal system will assume a position across southern Missouri
by Monday night, and will become a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development during the day Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The front should become stationary over northern Arkansas,
and could provide some unsettled weather on a period basis through
Thursday morning for southern Missouri. Therefore, we will
forecast isolated to scattered convective chances through Thursday
morning.

The Ozarks airmass should become capped off by Thursday afternoon
with extremely warm temperatures spreading across the region
during the day.

More unsettled weather will arrive Friday into Friday night as a
large storm system approaches from the west. The ECMWF has a
slower arrival of this system allowing moisture to deepen a bit
more than the GFS. This could offer some severe thunderstorm risk
for the Ozarks, along with some much needed widespread rainfall.

According to the ECMWF, the axis of this deep upper level trough
finally passes over the region during the day on Saturday,
bringing showers and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Surface low pressure over the plains will allow a strong low
level jet to develop and impact the Ozarks region during the
overnight hours. Surface winds will be breezy from the south, low
level wind shear will impact all area terminals from this evening
through sunrise. No impacts to ceilings or visibility are
expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch



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