Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 110001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
601 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Dense fog burned off much quicker this morning across the area and
the stratus has cleared from all but the far southeast corner of
the CWA. Strong warm air advection was occurring out ahead of the
next storm system with broad southwest flow aloft and pretty stout
southerly surface winds today at 25 to 35 mph gusts. All of the
above have led to temperatures warming nicely back into the 50`s
and even low 60s so far this afternoon.

The warmup will be short lived behind the next system which will
arrive on Thursday.

Short term focus will be focused on temperature drop behind the
front and with wintry precipitation Thursday and Thursday night.

Cold temperatures will be primary focus for the long term period.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

For tonight, main upper level shortwave will track into the plains
with precipitation beginning mainly after midnight in the form of
rain. Temperatures will remain mild overnight in the low to mid
50s most places, with the front approaching the northwestern CWA
by 12z. We have gone with non-traditional diurnal temperature
curve for the temperature forecast on Thursday with sharply
falling temperatures behind the front. Those 50 degree readings at
6 AM will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s for much of the CWA by
6 pm. So even though it may be a non-coat start to the day, you
will definitely want it for the drive home.

With the temperatures sharply falling below freezing behind the
front during the day, precipitation will transition to a brief
(1-3 hr) period of freezing rain and sleet before changing over to
light snow before the precipitation ends. We are only anticipating
a couple to few hundredths of ice accumulation with this system
and maybe a trace up to a half inch of snow.

The precipitation should end by 12z Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

The cold temperatures will settle in through the period with a
couple of reinforcing shots of cold air during the time frame.
Highs are expected to be below freezing for much of the long term
period with lows in the single digits and teens for a good portion
of the time. Wind chills will be in the single digits above and
below zero during the night time hours, with Tuesday night in the
zero to 8 below range...or approaching advisory criteria.

A shortwave embedded in the northwest flow regime will bring a
chance of snow to the area Monday and Monday evening, but is not
expected to amount to much at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Conditions across the region for aviators will initially be VFR
with a high level cloud deck. Surface winds will remain gusty
from the south through the overnight period but shift to the west
after sunrise as a front approaches the region and to the
northwest behind the front Thursday afternoon.

Ceilings will begin to fall to MVFR around 06z in advance of the
approaching front. Showers will impact the region shortly after
sunrise with a potential changeover to freezing rain and snow
in the early afternoon. This transitions period, along and just
behind the front may also produce a period of IFR flight




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.