Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 040550
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday night)
An incredible Arctic airmass spread over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks over the weekend. Temperatures fell to
near zero in most locations this morning, and struggled to warm
out of the teens this afternoon.
Fortunately, this airmass will get scoured out tomorrow, as
southerly winds return. Sunshine combined with this southerly flow
will pump temperatures back into the middle and upper 30s Tuesday.
Tuesday night, a weak front will slowly shift across southern
Missouri as an upper speed max approaches from the west. No
precipitation is expected until Wednesday afternoon.
Decent large scale lift will occur with the passage of the
approaching speed max. However, the Ozarks airmass will be lacking
Some Pacific based moisture is expected to accompany this
disturbance, which will provide sufficient cloud ice for some
light snow and flurries Wednesday afternoon and evening.
There is a chance for some minor accumulations with this system,
particularly near the western Missouri border with Kansas and
Oklahoma. If a certain location does experience snow accumulation,
amounts should remain below a couple inches.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Fortunately Wednesday`s disturbance fails to drag Canadian air
with it...and south winds return by Thursday night. In the
meantime, Thursday looks to be a decent day, with highs in the 40s
and light winds.
Friday should also be a nice day as temperatures warm into the 50s
under a mix of sun and clouds.
These fair weather conditions do not last long as another storm
system approaches by Saturday morning. Global solutions diverge at
this point, trending toward various solutions. Therefore the
precipitation forecast for the upcoming weekend remains a big
question mark, but we certainly have chances for it.
We do know that any Arctic air stays confined to Canada, and
temperatures over the Ozarks will be closer to normal for the
month of March.
Have a nice week !
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
High pressure remains over the region with VFR flight conditions
expected through the forecast period. Surface winds will remain