Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 030941
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
341 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

An upper level disturbance is currently pushing east into the
Plains as and upper level low is located across northeastern
Mexico early this morning. Lift and moisture are starting to
spread north into Oklahoma and Arkansas early this morning where
light rain has developed.

Farther north across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas enough
dry air is still in place to limit rain currently across the area.
Later this morning into this afternoon light rain will start to
spread north into southern Missouri, generally remaining
along/south of Highway 60. This evening as the trough tracks
across the region light rain will develop across southeastern
Kansas and spread into central Missouri. Dry air in the mid levels
will start to spread into southern Missouri this evening and
tonight which will limit rain chances in these locations. Drier
air will then spread into the area from tonight into Sunday which
will allow the rain to end from west to east. Temperatures will be
warm enough for all rain to occur with this activity today and
tonight as the rain will be occurring in a warm air advection
regime.

An increase in clouds and rain spreading into the area will result
in highs in the middle 40s to the lower 50s this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

High pressure will move across the region into Monday but will
move quickly through the area as an upper level low will bring
another batch of rain into the region as the low lifts out of
Texas and tracks to the northeast across Arkansas. This will some
light rainfall for most of the region through Tuesday morning.

This system will move through quickly like the Sunday and Monday
systems as parade of storm systems impacts the plains through the
middle to end of the week.

The coldest airmass of the season so far along with light
precipitation will move into the Ozarks During the day Wednesday
with the potential for some light snow fall during the and
tapering off into Wednesday night. Temperatures will only reach
the low to middle 30s Highs Wednesday with overnight temperatures
into Thursday in the teens with the potential for some light snow
accumulation on the ground for Thursday.

Strong northwesterly flow aloft will allow an arctic airmass to
dive as far south as the Texas Gulf Coast and bring Cold
temperatures to the region through the end of the work week.
Highs on Thursday will likely not climb out of the 20s for most
locations and only into the lower 30s on Friday.

Breezy southerly winds will return for to start next weekend with
a brief warming trend, though zonal upper level flow will signal
the potential for additional rounds of colder air and
precipitation to impact the the region through next weekend and
into the following week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Ceilings will continue to gradually build downward from around 10
kft to around 4 kft through late tonight and Saturday with
increasing moisture spreading northeastward ahead of the southwest
U.S. cutoff low. The swath of light rain currently over northeast
OK will have some drier air in the lower levels to saturate but
will carry at least vicinity showers for all areas by late morning
or early afternoon.

Late in the forecast period will carry MVFR ceilings/visibility
and predominant showers as extra lift from northern stream
shortwave trough approaches the region. For now will keep
precipitation all liquid as forecast thermal profiles are expected
to be too warm for frozen precipitation near the airports.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Terry



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