Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 132338
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
538 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Low level warm air and moisture advection will set up the next
couple of days as surface high pressure moves off to the east and
a front takes shape over the Plains. Isentropic upglide will also
develop later tonight into Tuesday. This will support some patchy drizzle
and perhaps light rain. Otherwise expect overcast skies to prevail.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

The aforementioned front will drop southeastward across the region
Tuesday night and early Wednesday as shortwave trough tracks
across the northern tier of the U.S. This frontal passage will
bring a good chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.

A more substantial warm up will occur later in the week in advance
of an approaching upper level trough and associated cold front.
The timing of this system and frontal passage is somewhat in
question but should generally take place later Friday or early
Saturday. Warm air and moisture advection ahead of this system
will support scattered showers as early as Thursday night with a
better chance for showers and thunderstorms later Friday.
Sufficient instability may be in place to couple with the strong
cold front to support the potential of strong to severe storms.

Cooler and windy weather conditions will follow the frontal
passage for this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Ceilings will lower tonight and Tuesday morning as an upper level
disturbance pushes in the from the west. MVFR will be likely
through much of Tuesday along with areas of drizzle. Some pockets
of IFR are expected, especially around the Joplin aerodrome.

Surface winds will increase out of the southeast with gusts over
20 knots expected around Springfield due to local terrain
effects. Low level wind shear will also develop Tuesday afternoon
as a low level jet stream strengthens over the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann



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