Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 172351
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
651 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

...Update to Aviation Forecast and to Add Patchy Fog Overnight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

The prospects for at least patchy fog seem to be increasing for
later tonight and early Tuesday morning. Recent rainfall and light
winds overnight have created an ideal setup for fog.

The big question remains how much (and how thick) cloud cover
will remain overnight. The current deck of strato-cumulus should
diminish as the sun sets. This will leave a shield of cirrus
which is currently streaming northeast from convection across
northern Texas. Recent satellite trends indicate that this shield
is "warming" and also appears to be thinning.

These trends have increased confidence enough to insert at least
a patchy mention of fog across portions of southern and western
Missouri. The area of fog potential may need to be adjusted as
the night goes on and cloud trends become clearer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

A subtle mid level wave is moving across the region this
afternoon. Clouds have been abundant across the area keeping
temperatures in the 60s for the most part. A few isolated showers
have been noted on the radar this afternoon. All precip will end
by late evening and a quiet night is in the forecast.

Southern wind return tomorrow with partly cloudy skies. With
recent rainfall and warmer temperatures, it will "feel" kinda
humid tomorrow. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

A surface low will develop and deepen across the Central Plains on
Wednesday. Southern winds will increase across the area and some
wind gusts may approach 35 mph Wednesday afternoon especially
over the western areas. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s
and feel humid again Wednesday afternoon. A front will start to
move into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. A few isolated
strong to marginally severe storms will move into the area late
Wednesday night from northwest to southeast. Additional convection
will develop along and ahead of the boundary across southern
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks midday Thursday through Thursday
evening. Some small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the
strongest storms.

The attention will turn to where this frontal boundary stalls out
Thursday night through Saturday. It appears this boundary will
slow down and stall near the Arkansas and Missouri border. There
is potential for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms late
in the week. There will be the potential for heavy rainfall and at
least a marginal risk for flash flooding. There is increasing
potential for widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with localized
amounts up to 4 inches possible somewhere across southern Missouri
during that 3 day period. Temperatures will be on the cool side
by Friday and Saturday with highs only in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

A slow moving upper level low will move across the region on
Saturday and exit the region early on Sunday. The area will begin
to dry out early next week with temperatures will moderate upward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

There will be the potential for restricted flight categories into
Tuesday morning. MVFR ceilings are expected for much of tonight
and Tuesday morning around Branson. A period of IFR ceilings
appears possible closer to sunrise.

Meanwhile, it appears that patchy fog will develop later tonight
across southern Missouri. Confidence in fog placement and density
remains in question. Nevertheless, MVFR visibilities appear likely
with IFR quite possible.

VFR conditions are expected to return to most of southern Missouri
by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann



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