Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 292039
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
It`s turning out to be one humdinger of a holiday weekend. Under
sunny skies and light southerly breezes, temperatures warmed into
the 50s today.
For tonight, look for temps to slide into the upper 20s and lower
30s. A dry airmass in place will help radiational cooling even
with southerly breezes.
Heading into Saturday, a weak cold front will approach from the
north. This feature is forecasted to stall out somewhere over
southern Missouri. Perhaps the greatest sensible weather change
from this front will occur in the form of widespread fog. Some of
this fog could be dense, particularly for areas along the
Interstate 44 corridor, and to the north. This fog would occur
late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
No precipitation is expected with this front, and little change in
temperatures are forecasted. Look for afternoon highs to warm back
into the 50s in most locations Sunday. A few spots in central
Missouri may only warm into the upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
A major pattern change is in the offing for next work week. The
ongoing split flow will evolve into one main belt of westerlies,
that becomes oriented from southwest to northeast across the
nations mid section.
A nice warming trend will occur Monday through Wednesday as
another cold front approaches from the west. While some moisture
return is expected, particularly at the surface, the quality of
this moisture will be low end.
The Gulf of Mexico has been plagued by a dry continental airmass
over the past few days, and dew points in the 40s and 50s were
being measured all the way into the southern Gulf. So...while rain
chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, rainfall amounts
will be low. Some locations may stay dry through Wednesday night.
The front will shift through Wednesday afternoon and evening. At
this point, a much colder airmass will filter in, setting the
stage for possibly some wintry precipitation Thursday night into
At this time, we elected to go with a chance of rain or snow
Thursday night into Friday. We certainly need to watch the
precipitation forecast closely in this extended period, as a Gulf
tap could still be in place for any passing disturbances.
Meanwhile, surface temperatures could be below freezing at the same
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
The main aviation weather impact of note will be low level wind
shear late tonight and early Saturday morning as a low level jet
stream shifts over the region. Otherwise, VFR will continue with a
few increasing high clouds. Light south winds into tonight will
increase and become somewhat gusty on Saturday.