Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
501 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

A large shield of rain developed overnight and impacted much of
southern Missouri. Many areas along and south of the I-44
corridor managed to pick up a solid quarter to three-quarters of
an inch of much needed rainfall. Amounts dropped off quickly as
you head north of the interstate with areas up towards Truman Lake
and Lake of the Ozarks receiving mainly trace amounts.

The rainfall overnight has occurred in response to a largely
confluent flow over a large section of the troposphere. This has
induced frontogenesis in the lower and middle levels of the
atmosphere. Additionally, an upper level jet streak is favorably
position to our north and has resulted in additional upper
tropospheric lift. Typically this time of year, these types of
setups can bring accumulating snow to the Ozarks.

As we head into the daytime hours, the main low level
frontogenetic layer will slowly shift southeast with time. We
should therefore see the precipitation shield act in a similar
fashion. However, areas near the Arkansas border will hang onto a
threat for light showers for much of the day as upper level
energy swings out towards the Arklatex and continues to strengthen
the frontogenesis.

The next big question is then the extent of clearing from
northwest to southeast across the Ozarks today. At this time, we
are thinking that clouds will hang on for much (if not all) of
today along and south of the I-44 corridor. Areas of central
Missouri may at least see partial clearing. This will have the
predictable impact on temperatures with some bust potential.

At this time, we have gone on the cool side with temperatures
due to the cloud cover and very weak cold air advection expected
with light north winds. The warmest temperatures should occur
across central Missouri where we have gone with highs in the
middle 50s. More in the way of clearing would result in
temperatures easily pushing 60 degrees. In contrast, areas near
the Arkansas border will struggle to reach the 50 degree mark.

Any remaining threat for showers should then push out of south-
central Missouri tonight. We should also see a clearing trend
area-wide with overnight lows falling into the upper 20s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

A big pattern change will commence from mid to late week as an
upper level ridge builds into the central United States. This will
result in a warming trend with highs returning to the 60s by
Thursday. We have continued to go on the warm side of guidance
through the weekend as most models have tended to have a cool
bias recently. Additionally (especially for late this work week),
southwest low level flow often bodes well for warmer temperatures.

One fly in the ointment comes early this weekend as global models
bring upper level energy northeast across the lower and middle
Mississippi Valley. This could result in some shower potential,
especially across far southern and southeastern Missouri.
Confidence is fairly low at this point in precipitation potential.

Global models have then been fairly consistent bringing an upper
level trough east across the central United States either late
this weekend or early next week. There has been a slight slowing
trend noted. Nevertheless, this may be our next decent shot at
measurable rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 457 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

An area of rain showers will slowly push south out of southern
Missouri today. MVFR conditions will remain possible early this
morning around Branson. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through tonight at the TAF sites. Light and variable surface winds
will become northerly later this morning as a weak frontal
boundary pushes south through the area.




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.