Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1200 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

As a stationary frontal boundary sits just south of our region
through late tonight and into early Saturday, waves of rainfall
will continue to develop across the central plains and push
through our area. With each round of rainfall, flooding concerns
will gradually increase, especially south of the HWY 54 corridor.

Gradual clearing can be expected by late weekend and into early
next week. After a few days of pleasant weather early to midweek,
more unsettled weather is anticipated.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms have developed across
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks early this morning. This
activity is forecast to continue to develop/expand eastward
through the morning. A series of upper level disturbances should
keep precipitation going through much of the day. A less subtle
wave will then eject from the Rockies and into the southern plains
this afternoon. There may be a very slight break in the rainfall
late morning/early afternoon (respectively), however, with the
evolution of the waves, think that any break will be short-lived
before additional showers and storms develop/expand into the
region from the west.

From a severe weather standpoint, there will be just enough
elevated instability and wind shear or a hail/gusty wind threat,
however, the main story with this storm system will likely be the
potential for flooding (see below).

Eventually, a surface low with its parent mid level wave will
shift eastward during the morning Saturday. This should push the
heavier rain off to the east. Although much of the heavier
rainfall moves east, we will still be left with some light rain
showers/drizzle. It will also be noticeably cooler with some
locations not even getting above 50 degrees.

In terms of storm totals, most short term and global guidance have
increased amounts across the I44 corridor. Went ahead and added
Bourbon and Vernon Counties to the Flood Watch due to receiving
around an inch of rain yesterday with an additional 1-2 expected
up that way before all said and done. Around the I44 corridor and
especially south, think rainfall amounts of 2-4" with locally
higher amounts (say 5") is still reasonable. With soils becoming
quickly saturated (if not already) flooding concerns will grow
with each wave of heavier rainfall through today and especially
into the evening/overnight tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Precipitation and eventually clouds should slowly start to
decrease as the pesky late week system continues to exit stage
right by Sunday. Upper level ridging is then expected to build over
our area next week. This will allow temperatures to warm back
into the normal range after a below average weekend.

The weather once again turns unsettled mid to late week next week
as another series of mid level waves move from the southern
plains and into our region. At this time, timing and exact impact
of each wave are still difficult to resolve, however, this looks
to be a decent opportunity of more showers and thunderstorms
through perhaps early next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Mainly IFR with some MVFR for the next 24 hour period at the 3
terminal forecast points. First round of convection has shifted
east of the area late this morning with the next round of rain
with some embedded thunderstorms pushing in from the southwest.
The rain will likely continue into the overnight hours as a strong
shortwave pushes in from Kansas and surface low pushes across AR.
Could turn into more of a drizzle/light rain heading into the last
6 to 8 hours of the TAF.


MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ066-077>082-088>098-

KS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.



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