Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KSGF 211117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
617 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A surface cold front has sagged south across the region into
northern Arkansas early this morning. The 850mb cold front is
lagging behind the surface front and will spread south across the
area today.

Instability in the 800-700mb level will increase to 500 to
1000J/kg early this morning across far southwestern Missouri then
spread over the rest of southern Missouri later this morning and
afternoon. Cin in these levels will also decrease, especially
later this morning/afternoon along/ahead of the 850mb front.

An upper level shortwave trough will spread across the area this
morning and may spark a few showers/storms across southwestern
Missouri early this morning. The better chances for showers and
storms will occur on the later this morning and may linger into
the overnight hours as the front slowly moves south. There may be
just enough instability for a few strong storms across southern
Missouri with penny size hail the main risk.

With the front moving south through the area temperatures will
range from the around 60 across central Missouri to the lower 70s
across southern Missouri tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Cooler conditions will occur on Wednesday as highs in the 40s and
50s occur. The front will then start to lift back to the north as
a warm front later Wednesday into Thursday, some scattered
showers will be possible as the front moves north.

Warmer conditions will occur on Thursday and Friday as highs in
the 60s and 70s can be expected. Gusty southerly winds will occur
on Friday as gust over 30mph are expected at times. These gusty
winds will bring and increase in low level moisture into the area
ahead of an approaching storm system that will move across the
Plains on Friday then across the area on Saturday..

The upper level low and associated surface low will move
northeast across southern Missouri Friday night into Saturday.
The area will be in the warm sector ahead low and thunderstorms
are expected to develop ahead of the system Friday afternoon into
Friday night. The better severe potential will likely be to the
south across Arkansas where better instability will be in place,
but a severe risk will likely extend north into southeastern
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.

Another system will track across the region late this weekend into
early next week brining additional shower and storm chances to the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Scattered showers and storms have developed across portions of
western Missouri early this morning. This activity will continue
to develop and track across the area this morning. This activity
will again be scattered in nature and may impact the TAF site.

Additional showers and storms will develop later this afternoon
into tonight. The storm chances will generally be late
afternoon/early evening with showers possible into the overnight
hours. Again this activity will be scattered in nature at any
given time.

Gusty northeasterly winds will develop today and continue into




AVIATION...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.