Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 260356
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
956 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

...Update to Temperatures and Winds Into Early Friday Morning...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The brisk southerly winds and increasing high level clouds have
kept temperatures rather mild this evening...especially along and
west of the Highway 65 corridor. With the wind and increasing
clouds expected to persist overnight, we decided to nudge up
expected overnight lows across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. Lows in the middle 40s appear reasonable
along the I-49 corridor...but we would not be shocked if a few
locations remained in the upper 40s. We have also nudged up winds
a bit overnight across this same region.

Updated products already sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Temperatures are mild this afternoon with most locations in the
lower to middle 50s. It has been a windy day with some gusts over
40 mph across portions of southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri. High clouds have started to increase once again and will
continue through out tonight. Winds will remain breezy tonight and
cloud cover will not allow temperatures to fall off too much.

Patchy drizzle will be possible as low moisture begins to move in
late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon especially areas west
of Highway 65. A shortwave will move out across the central Plains
into the Midwest tomorrow night. Scattered showers will develop
after dark tomorrow and become widespread late tomorrow night into
early Saturday morning. A cold front will begin to move into the
area late tomorrow night into early on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The models have continued to slow down the colder air on Saturday
a bit. It appears that we should remain just a cold rain as the
rain exits the area from west to east during the day on Saturday.
Temperatures will also slowly fall during the day on Saturday
behind the front but all precip should end before temperatures
reach below freezing Saturday night. No wintry weather expected
in the immediate area.

Back to seasonably cold weather is expected Sunday through Monday
and drier conditions. Models still indicate that an Arctic airmass
will come down out of Canada middle of next week. A 1055 MB plus
high will slide down the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. The
front will move through our area pretty much uneventful Monday
night. Temperatures will fall most of the day Tuesday with strong
cold air advection.

The latest guidance shows that it will be mostly dry and just cold
for most of next week. The only thing to watch for is that the
models show upper level energy being cut off into an upper level
low across the southwestern U.S. middle of next week. There are signs
it will try to come out across the southern U.S. towards the end
of next week. Will need to keep an eye on how this system moves
out and interacts with moisture and the cold airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Brisk southerly winds will continue at the surface through Friday.
Low level wind shear conditions are also expected into early
Friday morning. Confidence is then high that a deck of MVFR
ceilings will spread into the region Friday morning...although
exact timing is still somewhat in question. There is also low
confidence that ceilings may approach IFR at times along with the
potential for drizzle. We have opted to leave IFR/drizzle out of
the TAFs at this time given the low confidence.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





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