Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 081423

923 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

Issued at 915 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

An area of weakening thunderstorms continues south of
U.S. 60 this morning. Expect to see this weakening trend continue
for the next couple of hours as the overall area of precipitation
progresses southeast with time.

Will still be monitoring for the potential for additional
thunderstorm development this afternoon. Have lowered high
temperatures a bit, especially along and north of I-44, where
copious cloud cover and morning rain will likley keep readings a
few degrees cooler, but it still looks like enough instability
will be present across far southern Missouri for a few storms to
develop along the front later this afternoon. Expectations are for
scattered coverage at best, with a couple of stronger storms
capable of producing gusty winds and large hail.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Outflow from weakening convection is pushing through the cwfa.
Main concern will be potential redevelopment over the southern
cwfa this afternoon with daytime heating. With outflow pushing
fairly far the south now, not to sure we will see strong
convective redevelopment but will watch trends.

Precip will linger over much of the southeast cwfa early this
morning, gradually tapering off over the next few hours. Also
seeing some elevated convection well north of the low level
boundary, so will hold onto some scattered showers/isolated thunder
well into the morning hours in some areas, but do expect the
convection over KS into west central MO to weaken with time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Sfc high pressure will build into the region as an upper level
long wave troughing pushes well east of the area for Wed. As the
sfc high pushes east of the region late Wed night and Thu south return
flow should produce scattered convection in an arc northeast of
the remnant frontal boundary from eastern KS into the four state
se KS/ne OK/far sw MO/nw AR region late Wed night into early Thu.

Convective trends will then shift to the north a bit for Thu night
into early Friday as the low level front lifts north in response
to upper level ridging/increased low level warm air advection.

An unusually strong upper level low is expected to set up somewhere
north of the Great Lakes or Hudson Bay by this weekend with a
broad nw flow pattern over the U.S. Midwest by early next week.
This will push the subtropical ridge back to the south. This will
also sag a sfc front back south into the area early next week with
increased chances for periodic shower/tstms once again as a nw-se
oriented boundary sets up somewhere near or over the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A line of thunderstorms producing periods of heavy rain will move
across the Ozarks and affect area terminals through the morning
hours. Visibilities will fall to MVFR in heavier rain with
ceilings remaining VFR. Conditions will improve generally after
15z as the storms move south of the terminals. for overnight
tonight, high pressure will move over the region producing VFR
conditions through Wednesday morning.




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