Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 031112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
512 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016

A rather brisk morning across the area as a colder airmass has
finally spread into the region. Temperatures continue to fall
through the 30s and with strong west to northwest winds
persisting, wind chills are well into the 20s. A far cry from 24
hours ago when temperatures were in the 50s.

a large scale trough will continue to move northeast across the
nation`s mid section today. A cold air advection regime will be
firmly place given stiff northwest flow. Primary forecast
challenges today are cloud coverage and temperatures. With
cyclonic flow expected most of the day, not feeling too bullish
about our prospects for clearing. Cyclonic flow and low level
thermal troughing do not look to relent until late this afternoon
and moreso this evening. As a result, looking for a mainly cloudy
day with, perhaps, some clearing beginning in western portions of
the outlook area from mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will be
stymied as a result and highs will not be much different than
current values, mainly in the 30s.

Surface high pressure will slide across the Plains tonight and
with clearing skies, low temperatures will hold true to early
February (a few degrees either side of 20).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016

00z suite of model output continues to exhibit decent agreement
through the extended forecast, lending to moderate confidence in
the main details. Overall, expect rather quiet weather conditions
into early next week. There will be a few opportunities for a few
sprinkles/flurries Friday night and again Sunday into early next
week, but deep layer moisture will be lacking with periodic
shortwaves moving through the region in northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster ride, warming
Thursday into the weekend, then turning sharply colder Sunday
night onward.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 0508 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016

MVFR ceilings this morning will linger through midday and slowly
clear out by late this afternoon from west to east. VFR conditions
expected by late this afternoon or evening at all areas. West to
Northwest winds will remain gusty up to 20 to 25 knots this
morning with slow relaxing of the gusts by late this afternoon.
Winds will become somewhat light and variable by this evening.
High pressure builds in tonight.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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