Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS63 KSGF 181702

1102 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to Aviation and Short Term Forecast for Fog Potential...

Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The prospects appear favorable for fog development (possibly
dense) tonight and early Friday morning. The lower atmosphere
will be saturated with little in the way of wind. All forms of MOS
guidance, raw model visibility output, and the SREF also point in
the direction of fog. We will therefore be inserting fog into the
forecast along with the Hazardous Weather Outlook. A Dense Fog
Advisory may be required for portions of the area at some point.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR and LIFR conditions will continue through Friday morning.
Flight restrictions will initially be due to low ceilings, however
confidence is then high that fog will develop tonight and persist
into Friday morning. Confidence in dense fog and LIFR visibilities
is moderate (but increasing) at this point. Winds will remain
light and variable through Friday morning.




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