Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262011
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Temperatures were approaching 100 degrees once again in several
areas of southern Missouri and southeast Kansas. The summertime
high is firmly in control of the Ozarks weather.

A weak area of convergence was analyzed along the Interstate 44
corridor this afternoon, helping to trigger a few thunderstorms
from Rolla over toward Avila.

We suspect these updrafts will continue to develop in isolated to
scattered fashion the rest of the afternoon, eventually
dissipating around sunset.

We decided to extend the Heat Advisory through Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures could certainly be a little cooler
tomorrow, however, dew points are not expected to mix down as
much, keeping the Ozarks airmass feeling humid. Therefore we
expect heat indices to range from 98 - 104 degrees Wednesday
afternoon.

Other than a few isolated thunderstorms Wednesday, nearly all
locations should remain dry. The better chances for rain should
occur near a frontal system stretched across central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Regarding this Heat Advisory, we`ll take it one day at a time. The
summertime high gradually breaks down in the mid levels Thursday
and Friday. But how this translates into cooler temperatures is
still unknown...specifically for Thursday. It`s quite possible an
extension of the advisory may be needed into Thursday, but we`ll
assess that tonight and again tomorrow.

By Friday, cloud cover is expected to spread over the Ozarks from
the southwest, in advance of an approaching upper level low
pressure system.

Eventually rain will follow, most likely Friday night and through
Saturday. The holiday campers, boaters, and floaters should
monitor radar trends prior to hitting the water, in case
thunderstorms are rolling in. In fact, anyone participating in
Labor Day Weekend outdoor festivities should remain abreast of
thunderstorms risks. The great thing about Saturday and Sunday,
temperatures will be cooler, with highs only in the 80s.

As of now, Labor Day (next Monday), looks ideal for outdoor
activities, with temperatures potentially warming back toward the
upper 80s or 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Diurnal cumulus clouds will
occur through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening
hours, then clear skies will occur overnight into Wednesday
morning. Winds will be light out of the east this afternoon,
becoming more variable overnight. Winds may then become more south
to southwestern on Wednesday.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into the early evening. These will be very hit and miss in nature
and will have little movement to them. So, for a TAF site to be
affect a storm would pretty much have to develop right over the
TAF site. Therefore, have left out any mention of thunder in the TAFS
do to the expected lack of coverage expected with this activity.
The convection potential will end around sunset this evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise





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